John Zogby took off his "pollster hat" and spoke candidly at Cornell University last night. Among his notable comments:
-Bush's approval ratings have been like a bouncing ball - and are ending up like all bouncing balls: rolling for the gutter.
-The Iraq war has been a catastrophe and we should get out now. Our boys and girls are targets, and every day we stay only makes things worse.
More detailed notes:
US Politics
- Bush's presidency is best compared to a bouncing rubber ball. Rather than reaching to the center between Nov. 2000 and the inauguration, the moderate TX governor became a full-on conservative. This led to approval ratings of about 50% in early Sept. 2001. Then came the first bounce. After 9/11 Bush shot up to 86%. Zogby remembers thinking that the post-Vietnam era was over - Americans would now be willing to pay any price, bear any burden. But nope, polls showed low support for protracted war.
-Bush lost goodwill, dropped to 47-48% by spring 2003. Next bounce came with Shock and Awe, but like a bouncing ball, it wasn't as high, or long-lasting as the first bounce: 67-68%. Back to 50% by May-June 2003.
-Dec. 2003 - 3rd and final bounce with capture of Saddam - again, shorter and lower: 55%.
-Bush dropped back to his usual 48ish % and looked beatable. But Kerry peaked at 48% and flat-lined to the election. Kerry never gave undecided voters enough comfort to support him.
Middle East
-Zogby (with his brother) has polled eight Arab countries for years, and others intermittently.
-Bush destroyed a lot of pro-US sentiment by embracing Sharon and calling him a man of peace, lumping Iran into the axis of evil, etc.
-Arabs feel US will bring less freedom to Iraq.
-Lead up to war, the war itself, and Abu Ghraib have been devastating to Arab view of US.
-500 economically elite Latin Americans rate Bush lower than Castro and Chavez and 89% of them have a negative view of US international policy.
-Career State Department employees realize all this, but policy is made by politicos who either don't get it or don't care.
-Iraq is a catastrophe that is not going to get any better. Zogby has "no hope" for Iraq as long as we stay.
-We've gotta get out of there fast, because every day we are there, we only make it worse. Our under-equipped troops are targets. We have long ago passed the point of diminishing returns and are at the point of no return.
-Three letters for those who say we need more troops: LBJ!
-Our departure might spur the international community to action. "Force the issue".
-Zogby is very disturbed by the number of lives being lost: Saddam was a monster, but you've got to know where your going, and the Bush administration had no plan other than bomb Baghdad and paint targets on our boys and girls and Iraqi children (he was kind of emotional here). Zogby has always "been opposed" to the Iraq war.
-Zobgy spoke with Hillary Clinton on the day the Senate voted to give Bush the blank war check. She said "But Saddam is only 6 months away from nuclear weapons!" Zogby said "But what is he going to do with them? We have him contained". Later he said that we should have left Iraq as soon as we realized there were no WMDs.
-Bush's rubber ball has no more bounces in it. It has begun to roll and is headed for "the gutter".
So, no real news here, but a fascinating glimpse behind the headlines.