Democrat Ted Strickland leads Blackwell in Ohio

Democrat Ted Strickland is leading two possible Republican candidates in the race to become Ohio's next Governor in the first Rasmussen Poll. Strickland leads infamous rethug Ken Blackwell by a 42% to 36% margin while Strickland leads former Congressman John Kasich 39% to 33%.

Strickland (D) 42%
Blackwell  (R) 36%

and

Strickland (D) 39%
Kasich     (R) 33%

lot more below the fold..

Note that John Kasich has not announced and is very unlikely to run. The poll did not include the other democrat, Columbus mayor Mike Coleman in the matchup. On the republican side there are two other candidates - attorney general Jim Petro and auditor Betty Montgomery. The GOP primary is expected to ne nasty. Petro is already running TV attack ads against rethug Blackwell.

Here is another diary written by someone introducing Ted Strickland. In short Strickland is fiscally conservative and socially progressive. He was against Iraq war, against congressional pay raises, is paying for his own health insurance since elected.

Overall Ted Strickland will be a very strong candidate for Democrats. As I wrote earlier Strickland will beat Blackwell with ease. I think that Blackwell is over-hyped and has a no chance in the current environment against someone like Ted Strickland who brings so many advantages like..

• Strickland has a great resume as compared to any rethug opponent.
  
• Republican party in Ohio is immersed in corruption and pay-to-play culture.
  
• None of the rethug candidate will be able to run away from criminally convicted current rethug governor Bob Taft whose approval ratings are 15% to 19% range.
  
• Strickland is from Southern part of the state which usually votes republican heavily. Being well known and popular Strickland will be able to split the republican base.
  
• The traditional democratic North-Eastern part of the state from Youngstown, Akron, Cleveland, Toledo will give huge margins to any competitive democratic candidate.
  
• Strickland has been a Methodist minister, psychologist, professor and economically conservative but socially progressive.
  
• Being african american Ken Blackwell will have a very tough time winning rural and suburban white GOPers.

Overall this is a good news for Ohio democrats since Paul Hackett is also leading Mike DeWine in senate poll reported by Kos here. If Paul Hackett wins the nomination for senate then it will be a great pair in Strickland and Hackett.. and should sweep the state. Ohio is looking for a breath of fresh air which Hackett and Strickland will bring.

I feel that the loss of Reform Ohio issues won't have any impact on 2006. The issues lost because of different  reasons as noted in the comments here.

Updated to add favorable ratings.. Strickland has 40% to 21% favorable ratings while Blackwell's are 42% to 39%.

•  tip jar

  please

  by Observer on Thu Nov 17, 2005 at 08:43:21 AM PDT

•  Blackwell's negatives are 39%

  Those really shouldn't be hard to drive up if you hammer him as part of "Taft-Blackwell" or as part of some "16 years of Republicans - isn't that enough?" campaign. I know that Blackwell has been feuding with Taft and other GOPers for years now, but do Ohio voters care? All that matters is that Blackwell stepped aside to let Taft run for gov in '98, and he didn't do anything to stop the state or GOP's slide into the storm drain.

  by daveweigel on Thu Nov 17, 2005 at 08:47:07 AM PDT

  •  you are right

    Blackwell's negatives are very high for someone as well knows as him and they will continue to go up as decocrats and his rethug primary opponent start punding him with his record and association with Taft.

    by Observer on Thu Nov 17, 2005 at 08:50:32 AM PDT

•  Yes!!! n/t

  by LeftyLimblog on Thu Nov 17, 2005 at 08:51:53 AM PDT

•  What about Jim Petro?

  As you said above, he's already issuing attack ads, and they're running a lot on the local stations here in Cleveland.  He seems to be trying to run to the right of Blackwell, calling his proposals "risky" and mentioning something eerily similar to TABOR.

  by someone else on Thu Nov 17, 2005 at 09:00:04 AM PDT

  •  Petro

    Petro as Attorney General has lot of explaining to do than Blackwell since its very clear that he dropped the ball with investigation of Tome Noe's rare coins. Just like Blackwell its very easy to stick Petro to Taft's lack of credibility.

    by Observer on Thu Nov 17, 2005 at 09:05:36 AM PDT

•  You will need to have

  a large enough margin in the run up to the election so that when Blackwell wins it is clear that there was vote manipulation.  If you can score the governors house then the first order of business would be to take down Ohio's current political  machine.  The voting system has been completely corrupted in Ohio.

  And this time, please believe that exit polls and don't fall for that "we overestimated the amount of blacks voting" (of course you do when you refuse to allow blacks to exercise their franchise.)  Also, the humidity thing. . .come on. . .wake up you guys. . .

  by Last Lemming on Thu Nov 17, 2005 at 09:03:29 AM PDT

  •  if

    if Blackwell becomes rethug nomination Democrats should demand that he remove himself from election handling as Sec of State.

    by Observer on Thu Nov 17, 2005 at 09:07:44 AM PDT

•  I met Ted Strickland on Sunday..

  I registered at his campaign site and received an invite to an event for all those who wished to volunteer.

  It was a at a carpenters union hall here in Columbus, and I expected a few of his staffers to be there with literature, clipboards, the usual.

  A massive crowd for someone still working toward nomination. Standing room only.  It was amazing.  

  He spoke for about 30 minutes, a casual presentation of what he was and what he wants to accomplish.  I think he can win as long as the ethically-challenged Blackwell is on a leash.  

  by Madison County Mandy on Thu Nov 17, 2005 at 09:12:50 AM PDT

  •  Strickland

    I think he has well rounded personality and resume to win it all.

    by Observer on Thu Nov 17, 2005 at 09:15:04 AM PDT

  •  I was there, too.

    He threw me for a loop because when I walked in he came up to me and introduced himself as Ted, and I was completely unprepared for that. So, he probably thinks I'm an idiot, but hey, I'm not running for anything. LOL.

    Good, good man and a great candidate.

    by Magenta on Thu Nov 17, 2005 at 09:24:12 AM PDT

•  Rooting for Blackkkwell

  to win the Repub nomination. He will be handily defeated by Strickland in '06.

  by Cleveland Dem on Thu Nov 17, 2005 at 09:14:10 AM PDT

  •  feel the same way

    I have been saying it for months. Strickland will destroy Blackwell in general. Blackwell won't be able to play the "values" card against Strickland since Strickland has worked as a minister.

    by Observer on Thu Nov 17, 2005 at 09:17:01 AM PDT

•  other offices

  Does anyone know if Democrats have "strong" candidates for two other statewide offices.. sec of state and the auditor?

  by Observer on Thu Nov 17, 2005 at 09:29:25 AM PDT

•  Do polls matter in Ohio?

  Do polls matter in Ohio?
  Does it even matter what people think?

  The reform proposals had good poll numbers, but they lost.

  Whether it was inaccurate polls or inaccurate voting machines, this news is less encouraging than it might be elsewhere.

  by Frank Palmer on Thu Nov 17, 2005 at 09:30:52 AM PDT

  •  yes

    They do matter. The reform Ohio poll was done my postal mail and though the questions should be asked about voting irregularities we have to remember that the issues lost even in very strong dem counties like Cuyahoga (Cleveland) and Summit (Akron) where they have punch card ballots. The RON did not have lot of money for TV ads and were heavily outspent. The other sad thing is even some major dem county chairmans were against these issues which is unbelievable.

    by Observer on Thu Nov 17, 2005 at 09:35:58 AM PDT

    •  Thank you

      I'm glad you pointed that out. I personally recovered a lot of confidence in our voting systems here in Virginia after our election. In Fairfax county, where we use paperless touchscreen machines, Tim Kaine crushed Jerry Kilgore and we nabbed two House of Delegate seats from Republicans - this despite neck-and-neck polls.

      by daveweigel on Thu Nov 17, 2005 at 09:42:56 AM PDT