Overlooked Candidates and Empty Districts
First off, the overlooked candidates.
The candidates mentioned are not chosen purely on potential to win. Some of them are mentioned because they seem like they are good candidates and worth a glance. Some of these candidates are worth paying attention to in the next few months. This post is not an endorsement of ignoring other candidates, but we need 15 seats, and we should pay attention to more seats than just enough to win.
(all fundraising numbers are though September 30th, 2005)
Candidate #1: Greg Rublee (FL-9). Rublee, a College Professor, has raised $75K for his run to take the open 9th District in Florida. The Democrat who wins the nomination (and it's still up in the air) will likely face Gus Bilirakis, whose main qualifacation for office is probably "My Daddy did it too." Bush won FL-9 by a 57-43 margin.
(more under the fold!)
Candidate #2:
Dr. Andy Michaud (FL-24). Michaud, a Veterinarian, has raised $120K in his run against Rep. Feeney. Michaud's only other run for office was a third place finish in the face for State Agriculture Commissioner. If you don't have a reason to cheer against Tom Feeney, you obviously haven't paid enough attention, just look up the events of late 2000. FL-24 was not contested in 2004, so at least Michaud is putting some effort into the race. Bush won FL-24 by a 55-45 margin.
Candidate #3: John Pavich (IL-11). Pavich, an attorney and former CIA officer, is facing Jerry Weller. Pavich has raced $147K so far. Weller's greatest claim to 'fame' was marrying the daughter of Rios Montt (who is notorious for large numbers of deaths under his rule in Guatemala, someone else can elaborate there). Bush won IL-11 by a 54-46 margin.
Candidate #4: Tom Hayhurst (IN-3). Hayhurst, a Fort Wayne City Councilman, has raised $64K and actually has more cash on hand than Mark Souder right now. Although Souder will have an easier time making up differences in money. Hayhurst appears to be in decent financial shape going into this race. Unfortunately for Hayhurst, Bush won IN-3 by a 68-32 margin. Interesting Candidate, Challenging District.
Candidate #5: Monica Lindeen (MT-AL). Lindeen, a State Representative, is running against Denny Rehberg. She's raised $100K so far and if she works hard enough, she'll benefit from the hard race against Montana Senator Conrad Burns. If Burns is going to be held to a close race, then Rehberg may end up in a close race as well.
Candidate #6: Scott Kleeb (NE-3). Kleeb, a Graduate Student and Rancher, faces one big disadvantage, which is being in a pretty Republican district. He has raised almost $35K though, which isn't too bad for a Dem in his district, considering that Kerry only got 60K votes in NE-3 in 2004. Kleeb has a pretty decent-looking website too. One can only hope that voters coming out to vote for Tom Osborne don't automatically vote straight-ticket Republican. Bush won NE-3 by a 76-24 margin. The last time West Nebraska had a Democratic Congressman was in 1960.
Candidate #7: Jill Derby (NV-2). Derby, a State University System Regent, is running for an open seat in Nevada. Gibbons is running for Governor. His wife is running for NV-2. The Nevada Secretary of State and Another State Republican are also running. These ingredients make the possibility of a divisive primary higher, which will benefit Derby. Derby has raised almost $109K. NV-2 went 58-42 for Bush.
Candidate #8: Ben Shuldiner (NY-19). Shuldiner, a teacher, is running against Sue Kelly in the 19th. Shuldiner has raced $85K so far. Some people are really hoping to oust Kelly, and Shuldiner might be in luck this year. Although Darren Rigger (a "Political Fundraising Consultant") shouldn't be ignored. One would imagine Rigger might be good at fundraising. Bush carried NY-19 by a 54-46 margin.
Candidate #9: Kirsten Gillibrand (NY-20, Site under construction). Gillibrand, an attorney, has raised almost $120K in her bid to beat John Sweeney. Gillibrand's site is just bare bones right now (as noted, it's just contribute/join the mailing list). But I would imagine she's a contender. Bush won NY-20 by a 54-46 margin.
Candidate #10 & #11: Georgia Berner and Jason Altmire (PA-4). Berner, a manufacturing executive, and Altmire, a former Hospital executive, are both raising quite a bit of money in their bids to take on Melissa Hart. Berner has raised $189K and Altmire has raised $101K. The CoH split between them is almost $117K for Berner and almost $95K for Altmire. Altmire's bio sounds pretty impressive and hopefully he would be able to deflect the word "lobbyist" from hurting his reputation. Altmire also resembles James Spader. Bush won PA-4 by a 55-45 margin.
Random Honorable Mention #1: David M. Roth (CA-45) as raised $93,962 so far in his run against Mary Bono. $91K in individual contributions. Roth doesn't have a website at this moment. I would imagine that $93K with a year left is outpacing Richard Meyer, who raised $259K in his 2004 run. Once he gets a site, or sends people to ask for money, he could get more attention.
Random Honorable Mention #2: In MD-6, Andrew Duck, Savas Karas, and Barry Kissin are both running for the honor of being the Democrat to face Roscoe Bartlett. Duck and Kissin make the race stand out for having unique surnames.
Random Honorable Mention #3: Joe Sulzer (OH-18) should be a highly regarded candidate pretty soon, especially when Ney gets indicted. With all the Neytalk, Sulzer isn't going to get ignored. Bush won OH-18 by a 57-43 margin.
Random Honorable Mention #4: Shane Sklar (TX-14) might be good enough to give Ron Paul a scare. Ron Paul, correct in his Iraq stance, dead wrong on almost everything else, is really somebody who could be hammered for his weird voting patterns.
If Paul is threatened, expect him to raise more money from outside of Texas. For a Libertarian who wishes to reduce the Government immensely, he's not afraid to spend lots of money to win a race.
Other notes:
#1 - Having money in the higher 5-digits or 6-digits with a year left is a good foundation for 2006, especially with the possibility of huge gains. Some candidates will show up big on the 12/31 reports though. If you've raised a lot of money and spent half of it already, that's not a good sign.
#2 - David Harris (TX-6) will likely get internet support and not be overlooked. Although his district might be a tough one to win. We wish him the best. David is also a Kos diarist too.
#3 - If you feel a candidate has been ignored, mention him or her.
And the Empty Districts (districts without an announced Democratic Party candidate), by State:
Alabama - Every Republican Congressman in the state doesn't have a Democratic opponent. The main reasons for this would either be slow filing, a lack of party organization, no willingness to run for Congress if you hold another seat (every state government seat is up in 2006). Although the only GOP seat in Alabama that gave Bush less than 60% was AL-3 (held by Alabama Mike Rogers)
Alaska - Nobody's stepped up to take on the super-entrenched Don Young. Young hasn't had a serious challenge in years.
Arkansas - I've seen an entry on ActBlue for a candidate to face John Boozman. But nothing has been confirmed yet. Boozman is a Representative for the Northwestern part of the state.
Arizona - Trent Franks, known best for waffling on the Drug Plan vote, doesn't have an opponent yet. His district is pretty Republican though (62-38 Bush).
California - Where to start. Herger, Lungren, Radanovich, Nunes, Bill Thomas, McKeon, Lewis, Miller, and Calvert are not opposed yet. Only 3 (Lungren), 25 (McKeon), and 44 (Calvert) gave Bush less than 60%. No Dem faced Lewis in 2004. Nobody faced Thomas in 2004.
Delaware - I'm sure time is on our side in getting somebody to face Mike Castle. But despite the seat being in a blue state, Castle is pretty entrenched too. But if someone wants to try, I wish them luck.
Florida - Miller (1), Crenshaw (4), Mica (7), Bill Young (10), Howdy Doody (12 *a), Mack (14), Weldon (15), Ros-Lehtinen (18), and Mario Diaz-Balart are all unopposed. Young's district went 51-49 for Bush but he's entrenched. Ros-Lehtinen fits her district (despite a 54-46 win by Bush there). Mica and Weldon are in reasonably close districts (57-43 for Bush). Miller and Crenshaw are in districts which Bush won by a 2 to 1 margin. Diaz-Balart, Mica, and Crenshaw didn't face Dems in 2004.
*a - The link is my own contribution to googlebombing. Consult the remarks made by Marion Berry towards Putnam for my inspiration.
Georgia - As with any state where the districts recently changed, there's a lot of open districts right now. Basically, Price (6), Linder (7), Norwood (9), Deal (10), and Gingrey (11) are unopposed. Westmoreland got an opponent. But Price, Linder, and Deal didn't have opponents in 2004. And no, I don't have Bush/Kerry breakdowns for the new districts.
Iowa - Tom Latham is the only unopposed Representative right now. People are being rumored as being asked to run for his seat. Iowa's 4th District only went for Bush by a 51-49 margin.
Illinois - Ray LaHood (IL-18) is the only unopposed Representative. The district went for Bush by a 58-42 margin, although i'm sure the district has went for the Republicans for a long time (even before Bob Michel)
Indiana - Dan Burton (IN-5) is the only unopposed Rep in the state. His district is also very Republican (72-28 Bush, with Burton running ahead of Bush).
Kansas - Jim Ryun (KS-2, 60/40 Bush) and Todd Tiahrt (KS-4, 65/35 Bush) are unopposed. Nancy Boyda did reasonably well against Ryun (Ryun ran behind the President by almost 4% in 2004). Todd Tiahrt has made himself safe in a district he won from Dan Glickman in 1994.
Kentucky - We all hope that Gerald Neal is running against Northup. If he does, then the two unopposed Kentucky Representatives are Geoff Davis (KY-4, 64/36 Bush) and Harold Rogers (KY-5, 61/39 Bush). Rogers has been serving for almost 25 years and he didn't face anybody in 2004. Davis has been putting 5 years worth of floor-speaking into 10 months. Davis is one of the guys who was saying that Murtha's plan was 'emboldening the terrorists'. So basically he's a "Talk Radio Republican."
Louisiana - Thankfully, the state gives you until August to file. Almost every Republican is unopposed. Bobby Jindal has an opponent named Stacey Tallitsch (who posts here). Jim McCrery (LA-4), Rodney Alexander (LA-5), Richard Baker (LA-6), and Charles Boustany (LA-7) are unopposed right now. But with the Hurricane, nobody is completely sure how the political dynamic of the state has changed.
Michigan - I'm pretty sure that Kimon Kotos is running against Hoekstra in MI-2. Nobody has declared against Vern Ehlers (MI-3, 60/40 Bush). Nobody has declared against Joe Schwarz (MI-7, 55/45 Bush). Schwarz is being threatened by a Norquistista candidate (flavored by Club for Growth).
Minnesota - Jim Ramstad hasn't done anything to arouse the ire of residents in his suburban district. Despite the friendly split in the district (51-49 Bush), nobody has stepped up to face him, as of yet.
Mississippi - Roger Wicker (MS-1, 63/37 Bush, Friend of Rove) and Chip Pickering (MS-3, 66/34 Bush) have no opponents. They didn't face Democratic Party opponents in 2004 either. Hopefully this will change soon.
Missouri - At least we have a candidate for the 9th. But when it comes to Roy Blunt (MO-7, 67/33 Bush) or Jo Ann Emerson (MO-8, 64/36 Bush), nobody has stepped up yet. Missouri is generally good at finding a candidate, at least for sacrificial purposes. But, Bush has sunk pretty far, and there's the strench of immiment indictment hanging over Roy Blunt (and the low favorability ratings of his son).
Nebraska - Jeff Fortenberry (NE-1, 64/36 Bush) is a freshman in Eastern Nebraska (not including Omaha). I would be disappointed if nobody ran for this seat.
New Jersey - Chris Smith (NJ-4, 56/44 Bush) won in 1980 due to an Abscam incumbent, and he's kept his office for almost 25 years. Smith won easily in 2004 though. Rodney Frelinghuysen (NJ-11, 58/42 Bush) has the advantage of a famous political name, which makes up for having a very long name. Rodney runs far ahead of Bush in his district.
New Mexico - Steven Pearce (NM-2, 58/42 Bush) is the Representative for the Southern part of New Mexico. He won the seat in 2002 and kept it by a 60/40 margin in 2004. I would hope he gets a good opponent too.
New York - Peter King (NY-3, 52/48 Bush) is a Long Island incumbent. His party is falling in Long Island and he might be due for a big challenge in 2006. Vito Fossella (NY-13, 55/45 Bush) could get a big challenge if a Staten Island figure stands up to run against him. Sherwood Boehlert (NY-24, 53/47 Kerry) is a Republican who continually gets challenged from the right-wing of his party. I would hope somebody good runs here.
North Carolina - Walter Jones (NC-3, 68/32 Bush) moved up the list of "Favorite Republicans" due to his change of heart on Iraq. But I would hope somebody runs against him too. Virginia Foxx (NC-5, 67/33 Bush) is also unchallenged so far, and probably due for a reasonably long run in Congress unless she suddenly retires. Howard Coble (NC-6, 70/30 Bush) is pretty entrenched. He's also notorious for the DMCA and those comments he made about the Japanese internment camps. Sue Myrick (NC-9, 64/36 Bush) is rumored to be a candidate for Governor of North Carolina in 2008. Patrick McHenry (NC-10, 67/33 Bush) probably wins the 'award' for "Norquistista Rookie of the Year" and he is not opposed either.
Ohio - Chabot (OH-1, 51/49 Bush), Oxley (OH-4, 64-36 Bush), Boehner (OH-8, 65-35 Bush), and Tiberi (OH-12, 51/49 Bush) are all unopposed right now. But this will change pretty soon, we hope.
Oklahoma - Not the place to be for any Democrat wanting to go to DC. John Sullivan (OK-1, 65/35 Bush) might get another challenge, but he's the weakest of the Oklahoma Republicans. Frank Lucas (OK-3, 72/28 Bush) and Tom Cole (OK-4, 67/33 Bush) are both safe and they didn't face any Dems in 2004. Frank Lucas also looks like a grownup version of Napoleon Dynamite.
Oregon - In some states, for every 4 Democratic seats, there's a Republican seat. In Oregon, this seat is held by Greg Walden (OR-2, 62/38 Bush).
Pennsylvania - John Peterson (PA-5, 61/39 Bush), Bill Shuster (PA-9, 67/33 Bush), and Charlie Dent (PA-15, 50.12-49.88 Kerry) are all unopposed. Dent should have an opponent too. Well, they all should, but Dent's district is purple. Peterson didn't face a Dem in 2004.
South Carolina - Henry Brown (SC-1, 61/39 Bush), A. G. "Joe" Wilson (SC-2, 60/40 Bush), and Bob Inglis (SC-4, 66/34 Bush) are all unopposed. Wilson is best known for such things as being on the frontlines of bashing war critics. Brown didn't face a Dem in 2004.
Tennessee - Bill Jenkins (TN-1, 68-32 Bush) and John Duncan (TN-2, 65-35 Bush) are in the part of the South that has went Republican for 150 years. Neither one of them has an opponent yet. But Marsha Blackburn (TN-7, 66/34 Bush) didn't face anybody in 2004.
Texas - Louie Gohmert (TX-1, 69/31 Bush), Ted Poe (TX-2, 63/37 Bush), and Mike Conaway (TX-11, 78/22 Bush) are all unopposed freshmen who got their seats due to the DeLaymandering of Texas. The other Texas Republicans without opponents are Kay Granger (TX-12, 67/33 Bush), Mac Thornberry (TX-13, 78/22 Bush), Randy Neugebauer (TX-19, 77/23 Bush), Henry Bonilla (TX-23, 65/35 Bush), Kenny Marchant (TX-24, 65/35 Bush), Michael Burgess (TX-26, 65/35 Bush), and Pete Sessions (TX-32, 60/40 Bush). Hopefully Sessions will get an opponent. The rest of the Texas Republicans are in their own "Red Sea". Geez, 78%!
Utah - Imagine that, not too many Dems here. Both Congressmen got opponents in 2004. Bishop (UT-1, 74/26 Bush) is the stronger Congressman. Cannon (UT-3, 79/21 Bush) finished with 63% in 2004. Then again, Cannon beat a Democratic Congressman in 1996 (named Bill Orton). Then again, making a statement on which Utah Republican is safer doesn't mean much for the weaker Republican.
Virginia - In the new hot state, there's a variety of Republicans to be opposed. There's Randy Forbes (VA-4, 57/43 Bush), Bob Goodlatte (VA-6, 64/36 Bush, hasn't been opposed since 1998), Eric Cantor (VA-7, 61/39 Bush), or Frank Wolf (VA-10, 56-44 Bush). Cantor was also not opposed by a Democrat in 2004.
Washington - Doc Hastings (WA-4, 64-36 Bush) or Cathy McMorris (WA-5, 58/42 Bush). Take your pick. McMorris is a Freshman and rumors have flown about opponents.
Wisconsin - Tom Petri (WI-6, 57/43 Bush) doesn't have an opponent yet. Yet, being the word here.
That's my rundown of the unopposed. Here's some stats.
# of Current unopposed Republicans: 99
# of Republicans not opposed by Democrats in 2004: 36
# of Republicans who were not opposed by Democrats in 2004 who are opposed by the Dems in 2006: 14 (Shadegg, Flake, Lincoln Diaz-Balart, Tom Feeney, Jack Kingston, Jerry Moran, James Walsh, Don Sherwood, Todd Platts, Gresham Barrett, Michael McCaul, Ron Paul, Sam Johnson, and Jo Ann Davis)
# of 2006 open seats which were unopposed by the Dems in 2004: FL-9 (Bilirakis)
# of Republicans who didn't face anybody in 2004 or 2006: 21 (Bachus, Bill Thomas, Jerry Lewis, Mario Diaz-Balart, Ander Crenshaw, John Mica, Nathan Deal, Tom Price, John Linder, Harold Rogers, Jim McCrery, Roger Wicker, Chip Pickering, Frank Lucas, Tom Cole, John Peterson, Henry Brown, Marsha Blackburn, Mac Thornberry, Bob Goodlatte, and Eric Cantor)
To say we are making progress is an understatement, filling almost half of the districts so far is a pretty good sign of things. I would want to get the rest of the districts filled promptly.
In fact, why not have more than one Democrat in a district? Nothing wrong with healthy competition. At least one Dem, preferably more.
So anyways.. here's a good list of things for you to do in the comments
#1 - talk about how my list of candidates is awkward
#2 - recommend people who should get more attention
#3 - tell me about how you live in a district where the Republican has no opponent and you think the Republican in question is an idiot
#4 - give me a lot of tips.
So yes, I am handing the floor over to you all.