Abstract
"In the discourse surrounding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, extreme criticisms of Israel (e.g. Israel is an apartheid state, the Israel Defense Forces deliberately target Palestinian civilians) coupled with extreme policy proposals (e.g. boycott of Israeli academics and institutions, divest from companies doing business with Israel) have sparked counter-claims that such criticisms are anti-Semitic (for only Israel is singled out)." A statistical study based on polling of 500 citizens in each of ten European countries finds that, "[e]ven after controlling for numerous potentially confounding factors, ... anti-Israel sentiment consistently predicts the probability that an individual is anti-Semitic, with the likelihood of measured anti-Semitism increasing with the extent of anti-Israel sentiment observed."
Kaplan and Small, Anti-Israel Sentiment Predicts Anti-Semitism In Europe: A Statistical Study (July 2005)(Accessed via Engage.)
(continued)
Please note, this is not a matter of saying that critics of Israeli policies are necessarily antisemitic, a simplistic notion the study refutes. But the data do prompt the question, how much does the U.S. resemble Europe in this respect?
Edward Kaplan is William N and Marie A Beach Professor of Management Sciences], Yale School of Management; and Professor of Public Health, Yale School of Medicine
Charles Small is Director of Urban Studies, Southern Connecticut State University; and Visiting Scholar, Institute for Social and Policy Studies, Yale University
"Rather than trying to demarcate when anti-Israel statements are anti-Semitic in either effect or intent, [Kaplan and Small] ask whether individuals with strong anti-Israel views are more likely to harbor anti-Semitic attitudes than others. Certainly Bayes' rule would suggest this to be true. Let p be the proportion of the population with anti-Semitic leanings, q be the fraction of those with anti-Semitic leanings who are anti-Israel, and r be the fraction of those
not anti-Semitic who are anti-Israel. Then the fraction of those with anti-Israel views who are also anti-Semitic, f, is given by f = pq/(pq + (1 − p)r)·
"Presumably those with anti-Semitic leanings would be more likely to espouse anti-Israel viewpoints than those who are not anti-Semitic (given that Israel presents itself as a Jewish state), implying that q > r, which in turn implies that the fraction of those with anti-Israel leanings who are anti-Semitic (f ) exceeds the unconditional proportion of the population that is anti-Semitic (p)."
Kaplan and Small tested their hypothesis by analyzing polling data from ten European countries, 500 citizens in each country.
Not only do we find that the extent of anti-Israel sentiment differentially predicts the likelihood of anti-Semitism among survey respondents; the predictions are sharp. Those with extreme anti-Israel sentiment are roughly six times more likely to harbor anti-Semitic views than those who do not fault Israel on the measures studied, and among those respondents deeply critical of Israel, the fraction who harbor anti-Semitic views exceeds 50%. Further, these results are robust even after controlling for numerous additional (and potentially confounding) factors both singularly and simultaneously.
By now you may be wondering what Kaplan and Small counted as antisemitic views and what they counted as anti-Israel sentiment. Here are the questions and survey data:
Statements comprising the anti-Semitic index with corresponding response frequency in agreement (of n = 5,004).
- Jews don't care what happens to anyone but their own kind. 1,052
- Jews are more willing than others to use shady practices to get what they want. 784
- Jews are more loyal to Israel than to this country. 2,200
- Jews have too much power in the business world. 1,309
- Jews have lots of irritating faults. 545
- Jews stick together more than other (CITIZENS OF RESPONDENT'S COUNTRY OF RESIDENCE). 2,942
- Jews always like to be at the head of things. 1,150
- Jews have too much power in international financial markets. 1,460
- Jews have too much power in our country today. 500
- Jewish business people are so shrewd that others do not have a fair chance to compete. 884
- Jews are just as honest as other business people. 485 (number disagreeing with the statement)
The results ranged from from 8% antisemitism in Denmark and The Netherlands to 22% in Spain. Kaplan and Small "say that a respondent harbors anti-Semitic views if (s)he agrees with more than 5 of the 11 statements." On this basis, "the overall fraction of respondents harboring anti-Semitic views equals 14%."
To develop an "anti-Israel index," Kaplan and Small examined responses to four statements:
Statements comprising the anti-Israel index with corresponding response frequency in agreement (of n = 5, 004).
- The Israeli treatment of the Palestinians is similar to South Africa's treatment of blacks during apartheid. 705 (number saying they "agree a lot")
- Who do you think is more responsible for the past three years of violence in Israel, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, the Israelis or the Palestinians? 1,254 (number saying "Israelis")
- In your opinion, during military activities inside the West Bank and Gaza Strip, do the Israeli Defense Forces intentionally target Palestinian civilians, or are civilian casualties and accidental outcome of Israel's military response? 1,765 (number saying "intentionally target civilians")
- In your opinion is there any justification for Palestinian suicide bombers that target Israeli civilians? 426 (number saying "yes")
"Just under half of all respondents report anti-Israel index scores of 0, indicating no measured anti-Israel sentiment, while only 1% of respondents agreed with all 4 of the anti-Israel statements considered."
Predicting Anti-Semitism From Anti-Israel Sentiment.
Recall that of all respondents, 14% harbor anti-Semitic views. Only 9% of those with anti-Israel index scores of 0 report harboring anti-Semitic views, but the fraction of respondents harboring anti-Semitic views grows to 12%, 22%, 35% and 56% for anti-Israel index values of 1 through 4 respectively.
The relationship between greater anti-Israel index values and greater antisemitism holds across all ten countries, despite their differing rates of antisemitism. Also, "even after controlling for respondents' country of residence, age, religion, income, gender, extent of contact with Jews, attitudes towards people of other races/religions, and attitudes toward illegal immigrants, the relationship between anti-Semitism and anti-Israel attitudes remains intact."
Kaplan and Small also found:
First, the fraction of respondents harboring anti-Semitic views tends to increase with age. Second, relative to Christians, Muslim respondents are much more likely to harbor anti-Semitic views (odds ratio = 7.8). There was no statistically significant difference between the fraction of anti-Semitic responses obtained from Jews, other religions, or those reporting no religion as compared to Christians, though those who refused to identify their religion were more likely to harbor anti-Semitic views. Third, the fraction of anti-Semitic responses tended to decline as income increased. Fourth, women were much less likely than men to report anti-Semitic results. Fifth, the level of contact with Jews had no statistically significant relation to anti-Semitism, except that those who did not know how much contact they had with Jews were much less likely to harbor anti-Semitic views (odds ratio = 0.34 relative to those who reported no contact with Jews). Sixth, the less one feels in common with other races/religions, the more likely one is to exhibit anti-Semitism. Seventh, the less tolerant respondents were of illegal immigrants, the more likely they were to harbor anti-Semitic views.
Returning to the point that criticism of Israeli policy is not necessarily associated with antisemitism, Kaplan and Small comment:
It is noteworthy that fewer than one-quarter of those with anti-Israel index scores of only 1 or 2 harbor anti-Semitic views (as defined by anti-Semitic index scores exceeding 5), which supports the contention that one certainly can be critical of Israeli policies without being anti-Semitic. However, among those with the most extreme anti-Israel sentiments in our survey (anti-Israel index scores of 4), 56% report anti-Semitic leanings. Based on this analysis, when an individual's criticism of Israel becomes sufficiently severe, it does become reasonable to ask whether such criticism is a mask for underlying anti-Semitism.