Daily Kos

Howard Dean predicts Dems will win House and Senate in 2006

Wed Nov 30, 2005 at 06:20:05 AM PDT

Dean predicts wins in 06 & 08.  He also lays out the Dems message in this article from the The Hill  Full story below the fold. He's optimistic but then thats his job as DNC chairman. He's doing exactly what he said he would do when running for Chairman.  How refreshing, a politician who keeps his promises. We may or may not win the Congress in 2006 but we will make gains and in 2008 we have a very good chance if only Dean & the Dems can hold it together.
Dems will win House and Senate in 2006
By Howard Dean

2005 has been a good year for Democrats. The Democratic National Committee (DNC) has trained and hired local organizers on the ground in 49 states. These organizers are critical to our victories in 2006 and beyond.

We've shattered the 2001 post-presidential-year fundraising record, despite not being able to collect soft money. Through our grassroots Democracy Bonds program, we've doubled the number of monthly givers to the DNC.

Our leaders in the House and Senate stuck together on issues such as fiscal responsibility and Social Security, and they continue to pressure the administration for the truth about manipulating prewar intelligence, sending a strong message that Democrats will fight for what is right.

And for the first time in recent memory, the DNC, the Democratic House and Senate leadership and Democratic mayors and governors are sitting at the same table to create policies and strategies for restoring honest government and fiscal responsibility to America.

The early results in California, Virginia and New Jersey are good. Local races in St. Louis, Parkersburg and Minnesota, where we picked up seats that had been Republican for up to 58 years, are even better.

This is a solid beginning, but there is more we must do. Cutting the fundraising advantage the other party enjoys from 3-1 to 2-1 is good but not good enough. Sticking together on the budget and supporting Rep. John Murtha's (D-Pa.) great courage are good starts, but we need to continue to work together on judicial nominations, environmental legislation, trade and jobs to send effectively the message that we are again ready to lead the American people with purpose and in a fundamentally new direction.

In 2006, Democrats will take back the House and the Senate. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee have done an excellent job recruiting strong candidates, and we are already investing in the local infrastructure to ensure they win. But the key to winning is running a national campaign based on our different vision and the themes that Democrats around the country have put forward.

Americans of all political persuasions are tired of and worried about the culture of corruption that Republicans have brought to Washington and to so many statehouses around America. We will offer real ethics reform and election reform so that the Government Accountability Office can report in three years that we can have confidence in our voting machines.

We will offer a program for American jobs that stay in America and for energy independence that will create jobs and wean us off of foreign oil.

The only president to balance a budget in the past 37 years was a Democrat. We will do that again.

We will offer a real tax-reform program that helps the middle class pay for it by eliminating the shocking waste and giveaways the Republican Congress and president have added to the budget and subtracted from revenues in the past five years.

We will join the 36 other countries that manage to include all their citizens in their health-insurance systems while simultaneously balancing their budgets.

We will provide a strong public education system by avoiding bureaucratic federal mandates and taxpayer-funded puff pieces. We will rely on local control while requiring real standards that work nationally.

We will offer Americans real security. We all agree that 2006 must be a transition year in Iraq. While we may have different ideas about tactics and timing, it's clear we must change course. The vision of strategic redeployment set forward by Brian Katulis and former Reagan Defense Department official Lawrence Korb offers a likely roadmap to success that we can coalesce around.

We will offer the American people a government that is honest in preparing for any deployment of American troops and honor their sacrifice when they come home.

Most important, we will talk about Democratic values, which are America's values.

The vast majority of Americans believe it is immoral to lets kids go hungry. We agree. The other party cuts school lunches (they just can't seem to leave that one alone.)

Americans believe it is immoral that not everyone has some kind of health insurance. We agree.

The vast majority of Americans believe that government overreaching into personal and family decisions is wrong. We agree.

Americans believe that it is immoral to leave huge debts to our children and grandchildren. We agree.

Americans believe that using issues to divide us as a country to win elections is bad for America. We will restore America's sense of community.

Together, America can do better. And in 2006, the Democrats will lead America to do just that.

Tags: DNC, Howard Dean, Democrats, House, Senate, Elections, 2006, Daily Kos (all tags) :: Previous Tag Versions

Permalink | 144 comments

  •  Dean (4.00 / 48)

    Will be on The Tonight Show with Jay Leno tonight.  Hope that he'll be able to comment on Bush's New Major speech on Iraq today.

    Tips please

    •  Thanks For the Heads-Up (4.00 / 5)

      on the Tonight Show visit. I usually watch the Colbert Report & would have missed it otherwise.

      I voted for Dean in the primary...wish I could have voted for him in the general.

    •  question (none / 0)

      " Democratic National Committee (DNC) has trained and hired local organizers on the ground in 49 states"

      so what's the one state that's left out ?

      Cicero : If you're going to back a policy do it wholeheartedly. You'll win no points for timidity.

      by PoliMorf on Wed Nov 30, 2005 at 08:52:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  My guess... (none / 0)

        ...probably CA.  The CA Democratic Party is doing pretty well right now organizing Democrats and thinking about the future.  It would be a waste of resources to give us a DNC organizer.
        •  Actually (4.00 / 3)

          I heard from my sister, who was very active in the special election in northern California, that many activists who busted their asses trying to defeat Arnold are really pissed at the absence and lack of leadership shown by the state party. Where were they? The unions did all the heavy lifting.

          I think there's still a lot of reform that's needed, and GOTV needs to be improved in many regions of CA.

          The country we carry in our hearts is waiting. -- Bruce Springsteen

          by saucy monkey on Wed Nov 30, 2005 at 09:16:27 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Huh??!!?? Details please (4.00 / 2)

          I'm a delegate to the CA Dem Central Committee and was the Special Election GOTV Campaign Co-chair for my area.  I haven't seen or heard a whiff of what you're talking about.  I agree CA is probably the last, and I think it's because the CDP has not yet fully demonstrated a workable plan and the necessary commitment.

          try habitat restoration - good for you, good for all

          by jps on Wed Nov 30, 2005 at 09:17:31 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  i'm pretty sure that it is CA (none / 1)

            the CDP is going through quite a bit of restructuring, elimination of AD committees and all.  it is my understanding based on various emails that have gone back and forth that the DNC and the CDP have not figured out how to put an operation on the ground here, yet...of course, a lot of us are also convinced that the CDP is anti-grassroots and with Gov. Dean trying to give power back to us, etc., is also relatively anti-DNC at the moment.

            However!!!!  a lot of my info is heresay, conjecture, and partial paranoia :)

        •  Sure hasn't seemed (none / 0)

          that way to me here in Sacramento. Maybe it's changing and I've been too busy to notice immediately, but the CA democratic party has been among the more inept organizations I've observed when it comes to longterm thinking and recruiting of new, exciting faces. This is the state party that gave us Bustamante for Governor. They haven't changed that much since then, not that I can see.

          Then again, I'm a Sacramentan, and we're all kind of cynics. So I will try to reserve judgement until further notice.

      •  I guess the 50 state strategy is officially (none / 1)

        a failure.
    •  Bush's what? (none / 0)

      Bush hasn't said anything new on Iraq in a long, long time. Consequently, he hasn't said anything major either.

      Unless of course, we consider him stringing two sentences together in a correct grammatical structure as "major."

      Full Disclosure: I am Chair of the Darius Shahinfar for Congress Campaign Committee in NY-21.

      by Andrew C White on Wed Nov 30, 2005 at 10:38:19 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  who are these 2? and what roadmap? (none / 1)

    "The vision of strategic redeployment set forward by Brian Katulis and former Reagan Defense Department official Lawrence Korb offers a likely roadmap to success that we can coalesce around."

    anyone? anyone?

    Cats, err, Pooties! for Obama "The president doesn't have a magic wand." The President

    by PhillyGal on Wed Nov 30, 2005 at 06:23:37 AM PDT

  •  Dean is doing an excellent job (4.00 / 7)

    and if anyone can lead Dems to victories in '06, it's him.

    Obviously we should fight for taking over Congress, but looking at the numbers I would be happy with simply getting the margins closer (maybe 10 seats in the House, 2-3 in the Senate). In '08, the Republicans have a lot more seats in the Senate up for grabs than we do.

    Nevertheless, I think it certainly is realistic that we could do it next year.

    Democrats will fight for a Renewed Deal with the American people.

    by Hoyapaul on Wed Nov 30, 2005 at 06:23:52 AM PDT

    •  Do we want to do it next year? (4.00 / 8)

      Dems in Congress have made some progress in the backbone-building department, but as a party they still lack focus, stray off message, backbite to excess, pander to credit card companies and corporations, and preserve too many has-been dinosaurs from the days of endless Democratic majority.

      I don't just want a Democratic Congress, I want a successful Democratic Congress.

      •  Hear, hear (4.00 / 2)

        I agree with this but whenever I say it I get branded a Republican troll.
      •  no , we want to keep rebublicans in control (3.90 / 10)

        so they can continue to distroy the economy and all social advancement made since the turn of the last century.
        </sarcasm>

        Yes we want to do it next year.  The third party revolution is not coming and a lousy democrat is better than any republican.  We can concentrate on getting rid of the corporate suck ups after we save the country from horrendous republican policy.

      •  good points there, though i don't entirely agree. (3.50 / 2)

        The Right did not get to where they are by focusing exclusively on the next election, but by also investing in a long-term plan -- they spent three friggin' decades building a whole network of think tanks, media outlets, college recruiting organizations, and other infrastructure.

        I do believe winning '06 is very necessary to contain the immediate damage, but we can not simply be focused on winning the next election.   We need to be looking more long-term as well.

        •  What do you do when short-term conflicts (4.00 / 3)

          with long-term?

          I think the foundations of a great Democratic platform are here already. Economic populism. Fiscal responsibility. Good government. And so on.

          But I'm not sure most of the party in Congress understand the need to support it. Many still act like solo players who can screw the party's brand over at leisure, and they still get away with it.

          That behavior won't just create a disappointing Democratic majority, but a short-lived one as well.

  •  Dean is doing an excellent job (none / 0)

    and if anyone can lead Dems to victories in '06, it's him.

    Obviously we should fight for taking over Congress, but looking at the numbers I would be happy with simply getting the margins closer (maybe 10 seats in the House, 2-3 in the Senate). In '08, the Republicans have a lot more seats in the Senate up for grabs than we do.

    Nevertheless, I think it certainly is realistic that we could do it next year.

    Democrats will fight for a Renewed Deal with the American people.

    by Hoyapaul on Wed Nov 30, 2005 at 06:24:05 AM PDT

    •  Setting Goals (4.00 / 8)

      but looking at the numbers I would be happy with simply getting the margins closer

      "Make no small plans for they have not the power to stir men's blood." - Niccolo Machiavelli

      "There is one quality that one must possess to win, and that is definiteness of purpose, the knowledge of what one wants, and a burning desire to possess it." - Napoleon Hill

      "Visualize this thing you want. See it, feel it, believe in it. Make your mental blueprint and begin." - Robert Collier

      "Concentrate: put all your eggs in one basket, and watch that basket." - Andrew Carnegie

      "The first step to becoming is to will it." - Mother Teresa

      "All who have accomplished great things have had a great aim, have fixed their gaze on a goal which was high, one which sometimes seemed impossible." - Orison Swett Marden

      "Big goals get big results. No goals get no results or somebody else's results.." - Mark Victor Hansen

      The next fantasy: Obama/Dean (please let it be)

      by wystler on Wed Nov 30, 2005 at 09:00:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Small plans... (none / 1)

        That Machiavelli quote is very similar to this one attributed to Goethe:

        "Dream no small dreams for they have no power to move the hearts of men."

        Also from Goethe, along similar lines: "Whatever you can do, or dream you can, begin it. Boldness has genius, power, and magic in it."

        The underest dog is just as good as I am, and I'm just as good as the toppest dog. - Jimmie Rodgers

        by GreenCA on Wed Nov 30, 2005 at 10:25:59 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  why would you settle for less (none / 0)

      when the Republican party is so off the mark and a majority of Americans have begun to see this?

      "There's been a little complication with my complication"

      by dash888 on Wed Nov 30, 2005 at 01:18:13 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm just saying as a realistic goal (none / 1)

        a 10 seat pickup in the House (low because of gerrymandering) and 2-3 in the Senate would be OK, especially since 2008 could easily shape up to be a banner year for Democrats.

        But sure, obviously winning it back ASAP would be far better. Dean's solid work of candidate recruitment/fundraising so far will go a long way in '06 and beyond.

        Democrats will fight for a Renewed Deal with the American people.

        by Hoyapaul on Wed Nov 30, 2005 at 02:00:45 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Saying it is Possible (none / 0)

      The first step in taking back Congress is saying it is possible. We can't be thinking about micro gains, we have to go for it.

      We need to compete in all 50 states, in every race for Congress. ALL of them.

      Anyone know of a Dean Martin that can run against Rep Jerry Lewis out here in CA?

      Remember, THEY hate us for our Freedom! The freedom for the President to do as he damn well pleases.

      by Tuba Les on Wed Nov 30, 2005 at 02:11:34 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  This is just the sort of thing... (4.00 / 2)

    to stick in idiots' ears when they attempt to inform us that Dems don't have anything viable to offer as an alternative to the GOP, no matter how badly we're  faring under the status quo.
    •  re:Framing (none / 1)

      You're right, and one of the key reasons is the language Dean is using to frame these ideas. How do we fight ingrained obfuscations like death tax and tax relief?  We say what most Americans feel: that it is immoral to burden our children and grandchildren with debt.  

      A lot of thought went into that word immoral: If successful, it tears the mantle of morality from Republicans and in fact shifts the whole basis for the discussion from what the fundamentalists want--to foist their vision of morality on all Americans--to a far more positive and inclusive and American brand of morality.  It's the morality that says we pay as we go; we don't make easy choices now that others will regret later; we make the future easier, not harder, for our children and grandchildren.

      Think about how powerful this version of morality could be in shifting other discussions: When Republicans accuse Democrats of class warfare in discussions of taxes, Democrats change the framework of the argument: It's not a question of class warfare; it's the fact that as Americans we know it is immoral to create huge debt by giving big tax breaks to anyone, rich or poor.

      Oh, I love Dean.  I love how he speaks truth to power.  He's a great framer of issues.  I don't know how much help he's gotten in choosing the language he uses here, but I know he has a gift for it himself.

      •  Yeah (4.00 / 2)

        I thought the choice of the word "immoral" was genius. Because everybody knows it, deep down. It's just plain immoral when kids go hungry so CEOs can buy another jet. It's just plain immoral when medicine is for profit and basic health care is portioned out based on wealth and luck.

        (Not to mention unAmerican, since our current system is essentially saying that the very life of a wealthy person is worth more than mine. Does Paris Hilton deserve life more than I do? Well, if both of us get cancer, I know which one of us is going to the Mayo Clinic and which one is declaring bankruptcy and crossing her fingers.)

        And that kind of immorality is something that you don't have to believe in any particular construct of god to recognize.

        In fact, you kind of have to be a major jerk not to.

  •  He would have been even better as President (4.00 / 17)

    Oh well :(
  •  Wow. (3.91 / 12)

    This certainly beats Kerry's true-but-tired appeals (and I'm a Kerry fan).

    I supported Dean for the DNC more on instinct than anything else, and because of his innovative fundraising during the primaries.

    Surprise: he's a first-class organizer and strategist.  This message makes sense on so many levels.  It gives the base hope and shows us we do have a real silent majority.

    I'm not too optimistic about the Senate next year because of the Republican advantage in number of red states.  But a ten-point swing and the house is ours.  Ironically, partly thanks to redistricting.  To pick up seats, they had to spread their majorities too thin.

    Seek first and final principles at The Mean Free Path.

    by Cream Puff on Wed Nov 30, 2005 at 06:39:27 AM PDT

    •  I wouldn't say HE's a first class organizer (none / 1)

      And this coming from someone who owns an orange Iowa cap.

      But he has the ability to listen well enough to first class organizers and the willingness to look at new ideas.

      This is the way democracy ends Not with a bomb But with a gavel -Max Baucus

      by emptywheel on Wed Nov 30, 2005 at 07:32:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  seconded (none / 1)

        Dean's greatest quality is the way he's able to seek, identify, and incorporate good advice. I've seen it up close, and have marvelled from a distance at the good doctor's political wisdom. He's great in a room of 20, and outstanding with a national audience. (Well, maybe not as good as Obama ...)

        The next fantasy: Obama/Dean (please let it be)

        by wystler on Wed Nov 30, 2005 at 09:07:31 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  The Ouija board saith... (none / 0)

      perhaps not part of your belief system, but the Ouija board told me and a friend that Howard Dean is a 5th Level Mature Warrior soul, so he should know a thing or two about strategy.

      Bush, OTOH, is supposedly a 2nd Level Young Priest soul... and it shows.

    •  Let's look at the numbers (none / 0)

      Senate now:  55-44-1

      Depending on which polls you look at (some of which are admittedly shady), we are beating GOP incumbents/open seats in 4 races:  OH, PA, MO, TN

      We have only two weak holds (NJ, MN).

      We still have great opportunities in MT, RI, AZ, and possibly NV.

      So while it's not a guarantee, a Senate turnaround is indeed very possible.

      Visit RemoveRepublicans.com and follow every 2006 Senate race.

      by AnthonySF on Wed Nov 30, 2005 at 08:51:32 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Howard rocks! (4.00 / 3)

    The day Dean got elected as party chair was a good day.  I celebrated.  And I haven't allowed anyone to badmouth him, either.  At first the MSM and the punditocracy were tsk-tsking.  When Democratic friends parroted that, I told them (a) to give Dean a chance, (b) what he said wasn't bad, stop repeating the crap you hear on pundit shows, and (c) be thankful we have someone who will speak up and speak bluntly.
  •  all i want for christmas is subpoena power (none / 0)

    a majority in one house is all that is needed to get that and the bushevik reign of horror will tumble.

    "There are many truths of which the full meaning cannot be realized until personal experience has brought it home." John Stuart Mill

    by kuvasz on Wed Nov 30, 2005 at 07:06:26 AM PDT

  •  Fight the Fear and Win (4.00 / 7)

    America is a fearful country and I don't know why. This country shares relatively the same level of danger from terrorist, crime, and immigration as any other industrialize country in the world. Yet, our population is easily frightened into believing that we are in imminent danger from something and must give up control of our rights or socially beneficial programs in order to be safe.

    To emphasize the ridiculousness of this fear that Americans feel, which our leaders use to control us over the years comes from a quote by the Mexican ambassador to the U.S. during the Cuban missile crisis. President Kennedy tried to get Mexico to go along with his plans against Cuba. Mexico refused and the ambassador said to Kennedy "If we publicly declare that Cuba is a threat to our security, forty million Mexicans will die laughing". Yet, the American public believed theses lies without questioned.

    Dean and the Democrats must have a forward vision to fight this cultural of fear that politicians on both the left and the right have used for years to keep the American people from asking questions and challenging their rule. This culture of fear benefits Republicans more than Democrats this is why they keep looking for the latest wedge issue to push during elections. We take away this tendency for the American public to fear everything they don't know or understand at first we will never have to worry about losing control of all three branches of government again.

    Most of all if the right can no longer frighten the people into following their ridiculous agenda they will be marginalized into political obscurity.

    •  speculations about the fear (4.00 / 3)

      America is a fearful country and I don't know why.

      I don't know either, but I have some guesses.  

      The first has to do with how scary (or even just potentially scary) things get reported in the US these days.  As news -- and particularly TV news -- has become less about the actual news and more about grabbing eyeballs for the advertising, the most emotionally powerful images get repeated.  I'm probably one of the few people in the entire country that has never seen any of the video coverage of the second WTC tower being hit, or of the towers falling.  I've certainly seen photos, but I don't think they have the visceral psychological impact of video footage, particularly when the footage is seen again and again and again.  (And yes, when our leadership could've helped us respond as a country in a measured and effective way, they instead took advantage of the trauma to push their personal agendas.)

      Another thing I think feeds into this is that in some sense it's easier.  It's easier to be frightened and angry and just act out that anger than it is to figure out why some people hate us so much that they'd go to so much trouble to kill some of us.  That's particularly true when part of the anwer might involve some uncomfortable insights into our own behavior and our silent complicity in the actions of our leaders.  It's far easier to just say "they hate us for our freedoms" and send other people somewhere else to kill and die, and pretend that they're killing and dying for those freedoms.  And when the financial cost is paid by whipping out the national credit card and you're told that your big sacrifice for this effort is to go shopping ... [shrug].

      "All progress depends on the unreasonable man." -- George Bernard Shaw

      by Bearpaw on Wed Nov 30, 2005 at 08:28:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I would love it ... (none / 0)

        ... if all Democrats during 2006 make a point to repeat -- as often as humanly possible -- one of the greatest political one-liners in American history, uttered by a Democratic president in his first inaugural address in 1933:

        "The only thing we have to fear is ... fear itself!"

  •  Why did Dean need to say this? (none / 1)

    Can we keep our cards close to our vest just once?  Between now and next November is forever.  I say we fight like we are down and be ready to battle the GOP in court and everywhere else BECAUSE THEY WON'T GO QUIETLY.  Every voting irregularity will be in our face 24/7 FOX news will make sure of this.  
    We can't just win, we have to swamp the polls.  2004 made that abundantly clear AND THEN WE HAVE TO MAKE SURE THERE ARE ENOUGH FUCKING VOTING MACHINES FOR THE VOTERS.  This thing is far from won.  Dean can and should gloat about 2005 but no need to get giddy about 2006 just yet.  Let's keep our cards close to our vests and deny the right of any issue that will mobilize their base.

    John McCain gets economic advice from subprime mortgage banking lobbyist

    by gaspare on Wed Nov 30, 2005 at 07:26:12 AM PDT

    •  Yeah (none / 0)

      let's don't tell the Republicans we're going to try to win some elections, but keep it a secret.  If we don't mention it, they'll never guess.

      How can we get over it when people died for the right to vote? -- John Lewis

      by furryjester on Wed Nov 30, 2005 at 07:51:27 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I disagree... (none / 1)

      ....the devil will be in the details, and it is the details that are for next year. It never hurts to say that we stand for fiscal responsibility, (real) family values, and the environment.

      Every good Christian should line up and kick Jerry Falwell's ass. - Barry Goldwater, 1981

      by Doug in SF on Wed Nov 30, 2005 at 08:36:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  re:No! (4.00 / 4)

      It's more framing on Dean's part: He wants the media to begin asking--right now, however doubtfully--whether or not the Dems can take back the House and Senate in '06.  Some CNN pundit smirks about Dean's overconfidence, and another pundit smirks along and says, "Well, if he's right, the Democrats will be able to call for investigations of this so-called Republican culture of corruption.  Heh heh."  Pretty soon, folks are talking about how some people think the Democrats will take back Congress and order investigations.  By next summer, perhaps the CNN hairdos will be telling us that many Republicans are worried that Democrats may take back the House and the Senate.

      Dean is used to being laughed at the first time he says something.  But there's usually a reason why he's saying it.

    •  The Republicans already know (none / 1)

      The Democrats, however, don't, and they need to be told the good news or they'll carry on truckling and compromising in despair of ever breaking the mighty power of the GOP.

      The first step to winning is to believe you can win.

    •  Americans like a leader (none / 0)

      and playing it close to the vest isn't seen as leading  - it's wishy-washy. If Dean proclaims that we're going to win the House and Senate, plenty of people will mock him now...but it plants the seed of fear in Republican hearts and minds.

      And 'normal' Americans hear that and start thinking....hmmmm.....maybe they will win - and before you know it, enough of em are voting for us that it comes true.

      Let's face it - if he's right, he looks like a visionary hero, and if he's wrong, he's just doing his job. I suspect the Republicans know we're gunning for them. It would be nice if we could finally use confidence and planning as a part of our arsenal in this war for America's soul.

      It was all so easy in 2004 when I was for Howard Dean.

      by el ganador on Wed Nov 30, 2005 at 12:06:07 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Help me decide (none / 0)

    I've got a little spare cash to spend on politics, but it isn't unlimited. I gave to candidates in 04, and to the DNC. Now I'm getting more and more calls, which I recognize is the cost of the increased grassroots effort. But I'm starting to reach donation fatigue. Not even counting the independent operations like MoveOn.org, there are a lot of people ringing the phones of donors. Are they all worthwhile? Are they all spending their money wisely?

    We've got the DNC, the DCCC, the DSCC. I heard from a group with "21" in their name which had something to do with training candidates. There's the DLC (but I know how Kos feels about them). There's my state and local Democratic parties. And I think there are a few more I've left out. As election time comes up, there will be local races around the country that bloggers like Kos will be urging us to support.

    Do all of these groups get the same bang for the buck? Should I be spending more on fewer organizations rather than nickel-and-diming many?

    •  just some homely advice (none / 0)

      I would put my money as locally as possible, first. You have to take care of your own first.

      Personally, I have found it very easy to contribute with Deans' Democracy Bonds program. And since the DNC's goals were to put people on the ground, organizing and campaigning, in all 50 states -- I feel good about that contribution.

      In general, I feel more like I'm investing in a better America if I concentrate on donating larger amounts to fewer places.

      I made an exception when Paul Hackett was running for that open House seat in Iowa, as I felt that it was a great race and that it would be fantastic if he came close to winning. I've never been happier about giving to a campaign! Sometimes regional issues and races have national implications, and that was clearly one of those times.

    •  Give to election integrity organizations :-/ (3.00 / 2)

      verifiedvoting.org
      blackboxvoting.org
      votetrustusa.org

      This is the crucial ingredient in winning elections which Dean has failed to mention.  We will win legitimate elections.  But there's currently no guarantee in large parts of the country that the elections will be legitimate.

      -5.63, -8.10 | Impeach, Convict, Remove & Bar from Office, Arrest, Indict, Convict, Imprison!

      by neroden on Wed Nov 30, 2005 at 08:37:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Tough question (none / 0)

      One way to answer it is to look at who is in charge of which organization and how they're using their money, and then decide based on what you think is the best use of your money.

      Another way is to think if you want to focus more on your local race, or if you want the Dems to retake the Senate (DSCC), or if you want them to retake the House (DCCC), or if you want them to set up an organization on the ground for the future (DNC).  Maybe you like MoveOn's tactics and think they should put up more hard-hitting commercials.  Maybe you like the idea behind Democracy for America and you want to reform the Democratic Party from the ground up.

      Yet another way of using your contributions is to reward good behavior.  An example of this would be contributing to Jack Murtha's campaign fund right as he's being attacked by the Republicans, or contributing to the DSCC or Harry Reid's PAC when he shut down the Senate.

      It really depends what you think is best.  If I could, I'd give the maximum amount to all these groups.  But I'm not that wealthy, so I have to distribute it among the ones I like best.

    •  here you go (none / 0)

      The DNC is the umbrella org and in 2006 will mainly focus on gov races leaving the House and Senate to their respective committees.  The DNC may help get a national message out, but I'd wait to see if they are going to run national ads.  

      If you want to focus on where your money will help the best I say pick a Senate or House race that is close and throw your support behind the candidate.  

      21st Century Democrats is the other group that is hitting you up and they do some decent work, and are usually an off year donation for most hard core Dem supporters.  

      I prefer peace Wouldn't have to have one worldly possession But essentially I'm an animal So just what do I do with all the aggression?

      by jbou on Wed Nov 30, 2005 at 08:53:49 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  S.O.S!! KY-3rd | Northup UNOPPOSED (4.00 / 3)

    Howard, if you're out there reading this, we here down in Whoville need some Help!

    Anne Northup is running unopposed for KY-3, the Louisville Metro area, the 20th largest city in the United States!

    I hope the general has a battle plan.

    Signed,
    Anybody But Anne

    1/20/2009 will mark the end of an error.

    by winstnsmth on Wed Nov 30, 2005 at 07:28:54 AM PDT

    •  Contact Your Local Democratic Party (none / 0)

      I am assuming you live in the district.  Maybe you should contact the local Democratic leaders and push them.  Dean can only do so much.  He really needs the help of people all over taking care of their own backyards.  And if the party can't find someone, then look around your own circles, or through local progressive groups that you admire.  And if those don't turn out, then maybe you can consider running yourself!
  •  not without a voting system with a paper trail (4.00 / 4)

    The Bill of Rights, and not the Ten Commandments, is what should be displayed on the front of our federal buildings

    by chinkoPelinke on Wed Nov 30, 2005 at 07:30:07 AM PDT

    •  come on (none / 0)

      I would have felt the same way, except remember that Virginia happened without a paper trail. If they really wanted to Diebold that race, they would've. People would have believed a 51-49 Kilgore win.

      The Republican Party is neither pro-republic nor pro-party. Discuss!

      by Nathaniel Ament Stone on Wed Nov 30, 2005 at 01:28:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Let's Be Realistic (2.50 / 4)

    I don't know about the House, haven't checked versus latest trends, but by my calculations it will be nigh-impossible to win a majority in the Senate in 2006.

    So it would be setting a more practical victory condition to state: We will win MORE of the House and Senate in 2006.

    I just don't think enough people here realize what a long haul we have ahead of us before we can (never) rest.

    •  If you are Dean... (4.00 / 2)

      ... the important thing is to come out swinging and set high goals. Realistically, if the Dems cut the Senate majority to 52-48 or so, they'd be doing well. It will probably take two election cycles to get a majority. But it could happen if the Dems run the table, and it's a good idea for Dean to have that as a goal.
    •  Don't Go Into Coaching (4.00 / 5)

      Dean's version: "Tell 'em to go out there with all they got and win just one for the Gipper."

      Your version: "Tell 'em to go out there . . . and . . . well, do a little better than last time for the Gipper."

      •  Uh Huh (none / 1)

        How about instead being honest with the electorate so that they understand they too have to do more than let it ride on election day. They can't win the country back with their vote alone, or even what they can scrounge up in the way of votes in a single cycle. We are in a generational struggle and the political game of pretending otherwise is beneath the level of sophistication of an increasingly savvy (if shockingly uncritical) electorate.

        We should be the party that treats people like adults and speaks realistically.

        •  realistic is subjective (none / 1)

          i mean, i think the backlash in 2006 against the republicans is going to be HUGE!  for me, that's being realistic.

          for the cynical or the more cautious minded, that may seem unrealistic.

          but would you dare caution me to stop preparing for a mass rejection of republicans by making sure that every seat in my little red county has a challenger (all our seats are red folks--county commissioner on up to congress)?  would you discourage me from trying to ride the wave of outrage in a place where there's otherwise not a snowballs chance in hell to pick up seats?

          i hope not.

          b/c i think it's better to be prepared than to say, "if only we had found a candidate to run against arlie".

          •  The House (none / 1)

            Is always theoretically up for grabs every two years. Of course district layouts and popular GOP candidates should not be viewed as intractable, but in the real world will take time to turn Dem. Of course step one is waging good, if losing, campaigns that build the infrastructure. A GOP voter who considers voting for a Dem, and doesn't, is far better for us in the long run than one who has never considered a Dem.

            The Senate however, as you know, is not up for grabs every two years. It was designed to be insulated against radical electoral swings, and against the need to constantly campaign, with longer terms. In theory we could go into 2007 with a 60-40 majority. Not the supermajority necessary to succeed with an impeachment, of course.

            If the current swing continues, tying in the Senate is reasonable, possible.

  •  I hope so... but Electronic voting is spreading... (4.00 / 2)

    Now California is revisiting that hackable mess.  Iguess Ahnold getting his ass handed to him, they realize they have to steal it outright!  $$$ alone will no longer do it, the sheeple are waking up.

    See http://www.bradblog.com/...

    You don't negotiate with fascists, you defeat them in the name of democracy. --Ambr. Joe Wilson

    by FightTheFuture on Wed Nov 30, 2005 at 07:44:37 AM PDT

    •  we had black box machines that last time (none / 0)

      and it didn't make a dent. they don't have the power to swing blowouts.

      surf putah, your friendly neighborhood central valley samizdat

      by wu ming on Wed Nov 30, 2005 at 09:46:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  an ignorant statement that is also completly wrong (none / 0)

        Central tabulation is the big elephant in the room.

        You don't understand the issue, the problem isn't in real world terms of missing ballots...

        an "overwhelming landslide" would never happen, it will always be "too close to call", every time.

        California has the largest amount of scrutiny on electronic voting machines of anywhere in the country.

        Do you think they would try any shenanigans here?
        That just seems foolish.

        regardless of if you believe the vote is going to be "stolen" or not, NOBODY loses with true verified voting.

        -C.

        •  i never said anything about trusting the system (none / 0)

          i just said that the situation is not hopeless, even if it is unacceptable. we aren't doomed, but we can and should do better. also agreed that dirty stuff is possible in close races or where we're not looking. the solution then is to win with big margins and watch them like hawks, and get rid of the damn things everywhere that we have the power. it's not an either-or.

          surf putah, your friendly neighborhood central valley samizdat

          by wu ming on Wed Nov 30, 2005 at 08:23:43 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Only If They Can Make Those Pesky Voting Machines (4.00 / 6)

    tamper-proof.  They need to scream long and loud about a verifiable paper trail.  Progress is being made, but exit polling should play a huge part of the process also.  It's not enough to say there'll be a recount if "the votes are within a certain percentage margin".  We already know that it's possible to fix the machines to surpass particular landmark numbers to evade this.

    Exit polling gives a clear indication what the percentages will be.  A verifiable paper trail will make stealing and election that much more difficult.

    •  What I would like to see (none / 0)

      Remember those newsreels from Prohibition, with the federal agents taking axes to the beer barrels?

      Substitute paperless electronic voting machines for the beer barrels.  Their use should be banned in federal elections.

  •  If only Dean and the Dems can hold it together (none / 0)

    Key Phrase!  What I find utterly amazing about the republicans at this point in time is their total lack of conscience and ignorance of history.  I've come to the conclusion that republican politicians are more interested in the business of politics than in policy and love of country.  And I have no doubt that the American people will reject that at the polls next year.  The question then becomes "what will the democrats do with that victory?".  For what we see among republicans now is hubris. And what you find in the dictionary when you look up that word is: (in greek tragedy) arrogant pride towards the gods, leading to nemesis.  That's how long it's been around!  But democrats are not immune.  So I suggest that as the democratic grass roots we make it 100% clear that we will not tolerate it.  Democratic politicians must be better, smarter and more honest (we're there already!) and stay that way even when they get the power.  And if they do, we'll keep it for a long time, because this back and forth ain't working for our country.
  •  I love it when Howard talks like this! (4.00 / 3)

    Makes me feeling tingly all over.

    This is not a time for a candidate who will offend no one; it is time for a candidate who takes clear stands and kicks ass - Molly Ivins

    by TigerMom on Wed Nov 30, 2005 at 07:53:49 AM PDT

  •  If you're interested.... (none / 0)

    I found the Katulis/Korb report via google...just started reading it, but an early paragraph wants around 80,000 troops home by 2006 and most of the rest home by '07 ~ I think I can live with that, right?
    •  also... (none / 0)

      wants to redeploy troops to relocating thousands to Kuwait, Afghanistan, the Horn of Africa, Somalia, Sudan and the Philippines and bring all National Gaurd and Reservists home
    •  I can't live with that (4.00 / 2)

      Too many will be killed, tortured, and maimed by then. Drawing down troops endangers those who are left. I like Murtha's plan -- move the military to the borders so they will no longer be targets, then use diplomacy. Why don't Democrats back him?

      Congress critters are getting an earful from their constituents, who are just beginning to hear about the war crimes being perpetuated in our name. If we wait until we have a solid majority, how many more will die? How many more hours, days, weeks of torture will be endured?

      If they can't support Murtha, impeachment is the only humane course of action. Moderate and fiscally conservative repugs will join us or dismiss their first duty -- to get re-elected.

      "This chamber reeks of blood." -- Sen George McGovern, 1970

      by cotterperson on Wed Nov 30, 2005 at 09:17:30 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Lets Take NY 19! (none / 0)

    John Hall is running for Congress in NY 19.

    After many postings, and several embarassing car pictures of my dirty car during the Schrader campaign on MyDD, I'm now proud to announce that I have joined John Hall's campaign.

    http://www.johnhallforcongress.com

    John is running on a platform of redefining National Security to ensure the needs of all Americans are protected.  He is a proud, progressive Democrat and we have much more information on his policy positions on our website.

    http://www.johnhallforcongress.com

    John's announcement has already been picked up on the AP wire, and includes the story most of you will remember of his tangles with the Bush campaign!

    http://news.yahoo.com/...

    Dem performance is 49.6 and this district is becoming more competetive as a local paper just wrote on the 17th.

    http://www.recordonline.com/....

    You all know the drill, please visit our website and sign up for our email list and make a contribution because you know how important early money is!

    http://www.johnhallforcongress.com

    Please also post with any comments or suggestions and we look forward to an ongoing conversation with this community!

    Edward Vale
    Campaign Manager
    John Hall For Congress

    http://www.johnedwards.com/nh

    by EVale on Wed Nov 30, 2005 at 08:11:43 AM PDT

  •  Bold prediction (none / 1)

    and I hope it will be right. Especially the Senate is very important, because of the fact that there might be more Supreme Court vacancy. Do we really want more idiots like Alito, Uncle Thomas and Priscilla Owen?
    •  Senate's gonna be tough (none / 1)

      We'd have to win Pennsylvania, Missouri, Ohio, Rhode Island, Tennessee, and Montana; while not losing anything.

      House is actually a better shot. We need 15 seats in the House, but there are easily that many that we could win. IA-01, CO-07, PA-06, IN-08, IN-09, AZ-08, PA-08, CT-02, CT-04, NM-01, NC-11...a lot of opportunities in the House.

      The Republican Party is neither pro-republic nor pro-party. Discuss!

      by Nathaniel Ament Stone on Wed Nov 30, 2005 at 01:31:03 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Dean rocks. (4.00 / 3)

    He's really found his place. He's a first-class organizer who knows when to use authority and when to cede it. I think we'll get our first really solid proof of Dean's efficacity after the midterms, and I believe he'll do well by us.

    It's no wonder that Dean got the job not by a noisy faction agitating to install him in the post but rather by Democratic organizers from all over the country. I remember reading in the New Republic earlier this year that Dean had promised to give more control to local Democratic organizations rather than Terry McAuliffe's top-down management style. It's like the Democrats were gasping for air, and Dean threw open the vents for them.

    When Will Rogers made his famous quip the he doesn't belong "to any organized political party--I'm a Democrat," he struck on a truth about the nature of the Democratic Party. Democrats do better when they acknowledge that there are some things that are best left up to local control, particularly when it comes to organizing. There are times when this didn't work out so well, like back during the civil rights struggle, but they cleaned house eventually, setting standards and abandoning the racists to seek shelter under the Republicans' big tent. The fact remains that the Democrats' tent is bigger, much more inclusive, than the Republicans' has ever been. Anyway, when you see tents and elephants together, you're probably at a circus. The Republicans have no shortage of clowns, either.

    The Republicans have a formidable adversary in Howard Dean, and if they don't know it yet, they'll figure it out soon enough. Dean may or may not run for president one day--I bet he doesn't--but I'll go out on a limb that Dean can make a greater contribution to the Democratic Party than any Democrat who sits in the White House could make in the near future. I'll go further that if there is a Democrat ordering new drapes for the Oval Office three Christmases from now, credit will go in no small part to Howard Dean. Some of it will also go to us, too, because as the Doctor knows, his giving more control to all the local Democratic organizations will only help if we get involved and stay involved. So let's keep up the good work.

    A conservative is just a liberal who hasn't needed a second chance yet.

    by Kurt Kaletka on Wed Nov 30, 2005 at 08:34:47 AM PDT

  •  Math question (none / 0)

    Maybe my math is just fuzzy this morning, but I don't get why Dean says '[t]he only president to balance a budget in the past 37 years was a Democrat.' I assume he's talking about Clinton, but why the cut-off at 37 years? I'm pretty sure that Lyndon Johnson didn't balance the Federal budget, so why not say 'the last 42 years' or 'the last 45 years'? And if Johnson and/or Kennedy did, then Dean could have made a much stronger statement about Democratic fiscal responsibility.

    breaking news in little bits since 1981

    by mswaine on Wed Nov 30, 2005 at 08:38:32 AM PDT

  •  Go Howard! (4.00 / 3)

    Statements like this will go a long way to put to rest the wrongheaded rethug mantra that Dems don't have any ideas or alternatives to the failed conservative talking points. Howard says exactly what needs to be said, and says it well and forcefully.

    He hit every point, and hit it concisely, powerfully and clearly -- Iraq, health care, corruption, the budget, education, social values, tax reform and personal freedom.

    If anyone now claims that dems don't "have a message" all you have to do is point to this. Now all we have to do is work as hard as we can and give as much as we are able to make sure Dean's predictions come true.

    If Tyranny and Oppression come to this land, it will be in the guise of fighting a foreign enemy. ~James Madison

    by mjshep on Wed Nov 30, 2005 at 08:39:24 AM PDT

  •  We can retake Congress if . . . (none / 1)

     . . .  there is a clear, coherent, and consistent message, from the Democratic Party, that makes it absolutely clear, that WE NEED TO GET OUT OF IRAQ.   To the extent that the Dems, on the national level, that can make that message clear, I believe we will have THAT MUCH of a chance to retake the house and Senate. If they continue to be a wishy-washy mish-mash of thirty different positions on Iraq, I will still predict some Democratic gains, but achieving majority status will be extremely unlikely.
  •  great speech (none / 0)

    my prognostication : 8 seat pickup.
  •  Notice Clever Messaging?-- (none / 1)

    "Americans believe [x], and we agree."

    I like it.

    We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

    by Gooserock on Wed Nov 30, 2005 at 09:14:53 AM PDT

  •  US SENATE/HOUSE-2006 (4.00 / 2)

    US SENATE-2006

    DEMOCRATIC FAVORED
    1)California-Dianne Fienstien(D)
    2)Connecticut-Joseph Lieberman(D)
    3)Delaware-Thomas Carper(D)
    4)Florida-Bill Nelson(D)
    5)Hawaii-Daniel Akaka(D)
    6)Maryland-(OPEN)Ben Cardin(D)(DEM HOLD ON)
    7)Massachusetts-Edward Kennedy(D)
    8)Michigan-Debbie Stabenow(D)
    9)Minnesota-(OPEN)Amy Klobuchar(D)(DEM HOLD ON)
    10)Nebraska-Ben Nelson(D)
    11)New Jersey-(OPEN)Bob Menendez(D)(DEM HOLD ON)
    12)New Mexico-Jeff Bingaman(D)
    13)New York-Hillary Clinton(D)
    14)North Dakota-Kent Conrad(D)
    15)Pennsyvlania-Bob Casey Jr.(D)(DEM PICK UP)
    16)Vermont-(OPEN)Bernie Sanders(I)(IND HOLD ON)
    17)Washington-Maria Cantwell(D)
    18)West Virginia-Robert Byrd(D)
    19)Wisconsin-Herb Kohl(D)

    REPUBLICAN FAVORED
    1)Arizona-John Kyl(R)????COMPETITIVE
    2)Indiana-Richard Lugar(R)
    3)Maine-Olympia Snowe(R)
    4)Mississippi-Trent Lott(R)
    5)Montana-Conrad Burns(R)?????COMPETITIVE
    6)Nevada-John Ensign(R)
    7)Tennesee-(OPEN)-Bob Corker(R)COMPETITIVE(REP HOLD ON)
    8)Texas-Kay Bailey Hutchison(R)
    9)Utah-Orrin Hatch(R)
    10)Virginia-George Allen(R)
    11)Wyoming-Craig Thomas(R)

    TOSSUP      Incumbent           Challenger
    1)Missouri-(Jim Talent-R) vs (Claire McCaskill-D)
    2)Ohio-(Mike DeWine-R)  vs   (Sherrod Brown-D)
    3)Rhode Island-(Lincoln Chafee-R)vs(Sheldon WhitehouseD)

    Democrats are favored to hold on to all of the Democratic Held US Senate Seats that are up for grabs in 2006(including OPEN DEMOCRATIC SEATS in MD,MN,NJ,and VT)plus pick up(PA-solid chance)(OH and MO-slight chance of DEM PICK UP). 47D-52R
    In RI- (Dems have a 50-50 chance of Picking Up the RI-US SENATE SEAT). 48D-51R

    Democrats will need to win Republican Held Seats in Montana and Tennessee and perhaps Arizona.

    (If Montana and Tennesee turn blue- Democrats regain control of the US Senate.)

    2006 US House.
    Democratic Pick-up
    1)Arizona-8CD
    2)Colorado-7CD
    3)Connecticut-4CD
    4)Florida-22CD
    5)Illinios-6CD
    6)Indiana-9CD
    7)Iowa-1CD
    8)New Mexico-1CD
    9)Pennsylvania-6CD

    •  Great Assesment (none / 0)

      I think you did a real good job at acknowledging seats that should go Dem in a strong 2006 for Democrats.  No matter what Republican's think, foot-in-the mouth Santorum has no chance of winning anymore, as long as we nominate Casey.
    •  Claire McCaskill-D (none / 0)

      The way things are going in here in MO, McCaskill as a great chance of picking up this seat.
    •  Please take Lieberman off your list..... (none / 0)

      ...I don't know what he is, but he isn't a democrat.

      Great list otherwise, and thank you for pulling it together!

      Please don't tell me you feel sorry for Ben. Ben is a well cared for dalmatian and has not been harmed by my political views.

      by Bensdad on Wed Nov 30, 2005 at 01:09:46 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Competitive (none / 0)

      Republican seats don't become competitive unless there is a Democratic candidate.

      Given the rubber-stamp nature of the Republicans in Congress, every single Senate seat is potentially competitive with the right candidate and strategy.  Least likely D pickups from this list are Lugar, Snowe, and Thomas.  But that does not mean that we shouldn't try.  The Democrats in Indiana, Maine, and Wyoming deserve to have a choice in 2006.

      For me, that is the issue.  Democrats need to have Democrats to vote for in every precinct in America.  If that's the promise, then I've a good argument for why buying Democracy Bonds is really buying back our country from the K Street lobbyists.

  •  very nice: (none / 0)

    "We will restore America's sense of community."

    That's a nice frame.

    "When people think, Democrats win." - Bill Clinton

    by Todd Beeton on Wed Nov 30, 2005 at 09:39:33 AM PDT

  •  Nice parting shot (none / 0)

    Together, America can do better. And in 2006, the Democrats will lead America to do just that.
    IOW, get ready for impeachment!