Yesterday, MoveOn.org received an overwhelming response to its appeal for support of
campaign ads in carefully targeted districts. Instead of the hoped-for $500,000 in monthly pledges, they got more than twice that amount in one day.
Donors were probably convinced that this would be money well spent. According to MoveOn's polling, in all four districts where the brief ad Caught Red-Handed was shown, an entrenched Republican who had been ahead was losing after the ad went on TV.
For example, in Connecticut's fifth Congressional district - "a seat held by a Republican for 24 years":
Before the ad ran, Republican Nancy Johnson led Democratic challenger Chris Murphy 47% to 46%. After the ad Johnson is down 41% to 51%. That is a HUGE shift. The shift was even bigger among Independents. It went from dead even at 45% to 45% to Democrat Murphy leading 55% to 35% over Johnson. Among women voters the Democrat had a 1-point lead at 46% to 45% and now he leads 53% to 38%....[In addition], incumbent Republican Nancy Johnson was forced to dig into her own pocket and spend $70,000 on an ad attacking MoveOn members. Even with her own ad running at the same time as the MoveOn ad, she plummeted in the polling.
Democrats need to win these four seats and 11 more to take control of the House. MoveOn believes that by staying on the offensive in certain districts, seats can be won "that nobody ever thought would be up for grabs." Yesterday, they were hoping for $500,000 to do the job. Now, of course, they've upped the goal to $1,500,000 so they can produce new ads.
(This is really an update of my diary yesterday. Thanks to the dKos readers who made valuable comments there.)