There has been much teeth-gnashing around these parts lately over DCCC Chair Rep. Rahm Emanuel's controversial decision to recruit and back injured Iraq War veteran Tammy Duckworth to run in Illinois' 6th District rather than support 2004 nominee Christine Cegelis. Like kos, I'm taking no sides in this fight. It may well be a bad decision--or a very good one. Time will tell. One thing that I will say, however, is at least Emanuel and the DCCC are out there recruiting. Which is more than I can say for Tom Reynolds and the NRCC. Perhaps Reynolds is too busy angling for the majority leader's job to work to protect the majority. We can only hope.
The numbers are these: The GOP holds 231 seats in the House. The Dems have 203 (including Bernie Sanders). There is one GOP-seat vacancy, thanks to Duke Cunningham. As 2005 draws to a close, there currently are 14 GOP seats set to be open seats in 2006 (counting Cunningham's) and 7 Democratic seats. The GOP opens are: FL-09, FL-13, OK-05, OH-04, IL-06, WI-08, MN-06, IA-01, NE-03, ID-01, AZ-08, CO-07, NV-02, and CA-50. The Dem opens are VT-AL, NJ-13, MD-03, FL-11, OH-06, OH-13, and TN-09. Right off the bat, this favors the Dems, as only one of their open seats (OH-06) is a closely divided district, and only three others (VT-AL, MD-03, and VT-AL) could conceivably ever go GOP. On the other hand, the only safe GOP open seats are OK-05, OH-04, NE-02, and ID-01.
But this is not Reynolds fault (or to Emanuel's credit). The following, however, is. In the remaining seats, 196 Democratic incumbents and 218 GOP incumbents are seeking reelection. According to politics1.com, a pretty reliable and current source, 89 GOP incumbents are currently unopposed. Yeah, I know, the DCCC pegs the number at only 80, but I wanted to use the same source for both sides and I didn't have time to figure out which 9 races they list differently. At any rate, this means that the Dems already have challengers to 59-63% of GOP incumbents.
On the other side, the GOP has failed to find challengers for 142 Dem incumbents. Out of only 196. In other words, only 28% of Dem incumbents seeking reelections are opposed by a GOPer. 72% are currently running unopposed.
In the 21 open seat races, the Dems have candidates in all but one (Ohio 04), while the GOP has a candidate in all but two (Maryland 03 and New Jersey 13). But when one looks at "top tier" candidates (ex-Congresspersons, state legislators, statewide officials, popular celebrities, exceptionally well-funded candidates, or previous candidates who made a strong showing), the Dems and GOP each have at least one in 14 open seats, despite the fact that the GOP already holds 14 of the 21 open seats. In other words, the GOP has a strong recruit in just one of the Dem open seats (Ohio 06), while the Dems have strong recruits in 8 GOP open seats (FL-13, WI-08, IL-06, IA-01, CO-07, NV-02, AZ-08, and CA-50). The GOP as yet does not have a top tier candidate to match up with state Sen. Gabrielle Giffords (D) in AZ-08.
As for challenger races, the Dems have 21 challengers who qualify as top tier candidates. The GOP has either 8 or 9 (I still can't tell if Jack Quinn III is challenging Brian Higgins (D) in New York 27. Politics1 seems to think so, but I haven't any confirmation.) This is without ex-Reps. Ken Lucas (KY-04) and Ron Klink (PA-04), who are strongly considering bids.
In the 116 districts I identified as having potential to switch parties (74 R and 42 D), Dems have challengers in place in 65 of the 74 districts (88%). The GOP has challengers in 28 of 42 districts (only 67%). The Dems have 30 top tier candidates in this group, while the GOP has only 20 (including Quinn).
In short, the House is in play in 2006 because of the national problems surrounding the Republican party, but also because the Dems are kicking the GOP's tail in candidate recruitment. Much credit for this must go to both DNC Chair Howard Dean and, yes, DCCC Chair Rahm Emanuel.