Sherrod Brown/ Paul Hackett Poll : In-Depth Numbers

"Brown...beating Paul Hackett by a better than two-to-one margin. Including those who lean towards a candidate, 51 percent of Democratic primary voters support Brown, 22 percent prefer Hackett, and 26 percent are undecided...

"...Brown leads Hackett in nearly every part of Ohio and dominates in the Cleveland-Akron media market, which is the state's largest and reaches over 40 percent of the primary electorate. Brown wins 68 percent of the vote in that market to Hackett's 16 percent. Brown also leads Hackett in every major demographic category, including both men and women and among voters of all ages, incomes, and education levels...

"...Forty-five percent of voters identify the war in Iraq as their issue of

top concern, and among these voters Brown wins 51 percent of the vote to Hackett's 27 percent...

Brown has 38% fav vs. 9% unfav. Nineteen percent did not recognize his name. Hackett had 13% fav and 6 % unfav, with 48% never having heard of him.

Among voters who are familiar with both candidates, Brown enjoys a 22 point margin over Hackett, winning 52 percent of the vote to Hackett's 30 percent.

The primary is May 2.

•  who conducted the poll?

  by dieharddemocrat on Fri Dec 16, 2005 at 05:15:55 PM PDT

  •  Who conducted poll?

    The Feldman Group, which has done extensive polling for other Democratic candidates (e.g. Ted Strickland)  in Ohio for more than 10 years.

    by yellowdog on Fri Dec 16, 2005 at 05:23:37 PM PDT

•  Thanks.

  That was very "in depth".

  It's old news, man.

  by HellofaSandwich on Fri Dec 16, 2005 at 05:22:24 PM PDT

  •  Incredible analysis.

    I'm bleeding, this is so incisive.

    by Desroko on Fri Dec 16, 2005 at 05:23:06 PM PDT

  •  More? Sure, but...

    There is a lot more, but these appeared to be the most important numbers. Remember, a poll is just a snapshot of yesterday. It is possible that Hackett could improve, or produce a poll of his own. However, Feldman has a good track record.

    Don't shoot the messenger.

    by yellowdog on Fri Dec 16, 2005 at 05:29:16 PM PDT

•  Good work Ohio Democrats!

  getting ready to send another NE congressman from one of the most Liberal Distrcts in the State! Whoohoo you know how well that worked in 2004 Senate race we won so well Yeah!!! Forget that Popular veteran who won all the swing voters in the super red district. It's Browns turn he won the pick the congreesman to run for the Senate contest at the DSCC. Good work Ohio Democrats!!!

  by dieharddemocrat on Fri Dec 16, 2005 at 05:30:28 PM PDT

  •  Political realities change

    The race against Schmidt was great. Hackett turned out to be the right candidate at the right time, but in a rough CD.  His field operation for the last 3 weeks of that race were critical and almost put Hackett over the top.

    You know who ran it? Sherrod's got his field director to move to Cinci and  work for Hackett. .

    by yellowdog on Fri Dec 16, 2005 at 05:36:41 PM PDT

    •  Brown needs southern Ohio

      Show me evidence that he can take Southern Ohio. Without he's done.

      All I've seen so far is evidence that Brown can potentially win a primary and has high name recognition with Democrats who are concentrated in Brown's region of the state.

      I want to see numbers from Southern Ohio, and I want to see numbers from independents and republicans on Hackett and Brown.

      Until then, this doesn't say a damn thing about taking the state from De Wine.

      by Marisa McNee on Fri Dec 16, 2005 at 05:40:40 PM PDT

      •  I live in southern Ohio

        (Cinci suburb) and I just don't see how Sherrod can win. I wish someone can show me how he could. I like the guy but from my vantage point overlooking this Republican wasteland I just don't see it...
        -----------------------------

        by HairOnFire on Fri Dec 16, 2005 at 05:46:08 PM PDT

      •  Southern Ohio

        If we saw the tabs of the poll, I'll bet Hackett is more competitve in the Cinci area (of course, just like Brown dominates in northern OH), but overall it is Brown who does better in the entire southern tier, probably because of name ID. Remember, Sherrod has run state-wide twice and won twice. My guess is that Ohio Dems smell blood in the water and are focused on winning. Union votes will be critical, and Brown has always been their ally.

        In order to win OH, a Dem must come out of the Cuyahoga County area with at least a 115,000 vote margin.

        by yellowdog on Fri Dec 16, 2005 at 05:51:23 PM PDT

        •  That is why the UAW

          Just endoursed Brown.

          by dieharddemocrat on Fri Dec 16, 2005 at 05:53:44 PM PDT

          •  UAW

            I think nearly every union will endorse Brown. From the day he arrived in the House, he has staunchly fought for the right to organize and protected unions from the Republican assault. There is no learning curve for Brown.

            It isn't that Brown just votes right, it's that he is an advocate.

            by yellowdog on Fri Dec 16, 2005 at 05:59:57 PM PDT

            •  You know they just pledged there support

              to Hackett right. your right every Union except you know this one of the biggest in Ohio...

              http://www.dailykos.com/...

              by dieharddemocrat on Fri Dec 16, 2005 at 06:05:21 PM PDT

            •  Anything else.

              I'm up for a good fight... hehe

              by dieharddemocrat on Fri Dec 16, 2005 at 06:19:18 PM PDT

        •  He won statewide when...

          Sherrod Brown won statewide in an election environment in which Northeastern Ohio could dominate.  With the collapse of the American steel industry and Cleveland's massive decline this is no longer the case.

          And, to win Ohio, a Democrat must win areas other than those Kerry won in 2004.  We need to pick-up one of the areas that Kerry scored 46%+ in (Wood, Ottawa, Hamilton, Scioto, Pike, Lake, or Columbiana counties).  Brown is a horrible fit to most of these (the exception being Lake) whereas Hackett took Scioto and Pike in 2005 and stands a good chance at winning Hamilton (he almost took the Republican portion of Hamilton in 2005, if you added more of Cincy proper, he likely take the county).

          Hackett also matches up far better in Columbiana and Wood county than does Northeastern congressman Brown.  

          by Mister Gloom on Fri Dec 16, 2005 at 05:59:32 PM PDT

        •  LOL

          Are you kidding me? You must not live in Ohio, right?

          Sherrod ran state-wide a long time ago, and for a very different type of race.

          The UAW supports Hackett, just how the hell do you explain that?

          by Marisa McNee on Fri Dec 16, 2005 at 06:40:38 PM PDT

          •  He wasn't aware of that

            Cought him in that. a few mins. back.

            by dieharddemocrat on Fri Dec 16, 2005 at 06:48:51 PM PDT

          •  He wasn't aware of that

            Cought him in that. a few mins. back.

            by dieharddemocrat on Fri Dec 16, 2005 at 06:48:57 PM PDT

      •  I very much agree, but

        As you already noted, it does say a lot about the primary.  Can public opinion be changed enough in a matter of months?  Will enough Indy (or even Repub) voters temporarily change ranks to push Hackett over the edge?  Find out in the next exciting season of As the Ohio Democratic Party Turns!

        by someone else on Fri Dec 16, 2005 at 05:57:19 PM PDT

    •  Field Director Whoohoo

      That is how you win Campaigns get a good Director. Not a good Message or Expierience in Red Ohio Not getting a good Director that is all of it right there. Not a good Message or Candidate just the director.

      by dieharddemocrat on Fri Dec 16, 2005 at 05:45:14 PM PDT

      •  Diehard

        Many campaigns have been lost by having a good message and lousy field operations. A campaign is an organism that isn't just "message."  

        by yellowdog on Fri Dec 16, 2005 at 05:54:55 PM PDT

        •  Yep your very right

          A good message a Strong Connection to rural voters and strong Fundraiseing abilitys and a good candidate with good idea just don't do it anymore.... It's just the Field Director....

          by dieharddemocrat on Fri Dec 16, 2005 at 05:58:47 PM PDT

          •  What are you saying?

            I don't quite understand your last comment, but facts are facts, e.g. whoever runs against DeWine will have to raise around $15 million, give or take a few million. You can't connect with rural voters if you don't have money to reach them with your message. The Republican money will overwhelm you. That's why Paul Wellstone, who originally would not accept PAC money, did a complete reversal on PACs. Facts of life, my friend.

            by yellowdog on Fri Dec 16, 2005 at 06:07:30 PM PDT

            •  Yeah thats right

              The NRA will certainly help Dewine over Brown.. hm well with hackett vs. Dewine NRA would probibly support Hackett... i still think there kinda well the UAW will oh wait a mintue they just went for Hackett...

              by dieharddemocrat on Fri Dec 16, 2005 at 06:13:36 PM PDT

  •  You know what?

    I think I detect irony.

    by someone else on Fri Dec 16, 2005 at 06:10:28 PM PDT

    •  heh...

      by dieharddemocrat on Fri Dec 16, 2005 at 06:23:38 PM PDT

•  This poll is meaningless. Kos ran it on the front

  Page a fews days back. It is an internal poll by the Brown people. Delete it.

  by ameri on Fri Dec 16, 2005 at 05:58:18 PM PDT

•  Who else is having fun.

  I know i am.

  by dieharddemocrat on Fri Dec 16, 2005 at 06:07:12 PM PDT