OK, CT's got 1.9 million registered voters. 635K are registered as Democrats. Tuesday's election had a 43% turnout or thereabouts from the latest AP numbers. Lieberman got 136K and only 48% to Lamont's 52%.
Lamont's total vote reflects only 33% of the total registered Democratic voters. If on 11/7/2006, CT has a turnout of 43% (same as the primary, but more is likely), than Lamonts current total reflects a base number going into the general election of just 16% of the likely voters.
Heres a source on the data:http://www.mysterypollster.com/...
I'm sure that after-primary euphoria will be reflected in some horse race polling, most as a result of news casts and winner appeal, but still Lamont has an uphill battle. But that's not my point
What is born out by this election is that a very very few can control the outcome of a primary election. If only 52% of the Democrats in this primary identified themseleves with the anti-war candidate, does that mean the other 48% are pro war? So if the Democratic party in CT (not the DLC or beltway, or any other boogie man group) indentifies itself with the pro-war candidate, and the Democratic party would be more likely to be anti-war, then how's a anti-war candidate to survive when his general election appeal needs Independent and Republican votes to win, much less expand on the Democrats who voted for his opponent.
With all the chest pounding done by rabid blogosphere pundits, that the Lamont victory reflects activist motivated minorities within the party (more stayed home than voted for either candidate). I grant you that primary winners
Lamont to win and keep the seat blue, he must expand his base. That won't be a softening of his war opposition, but it will be interesting to see how the 16% base respond to a more centerist general election campaign(and all general election campaigns are).
You may believe that Tuesday's primary was the voice of the people in CT, but it just wasn't all that many people. Victory in November will require a lot more.
Lieberman will fade shortly..money will be tighter and his base will consider him a loser, but that doesn't mean they turn to Lamont, they are more likely to stay home.
How does Lamont capture them? Remember, they didn't respond to blogger left appeals, so what's the key?