INTREPID LIBERAL JOURNAL
http://www.intrepidliberaljournal.blogspot.com
For all Bush's stay the course rhetoric, the center of gravity regarding policy in Iraq has shifted. Congressman Murtha's proposal was a tsunami. Even as the majority of members in both parties say they disapprove of Murtha's six-month timetable, they're essentially moving in that direction. Murtha's proposal is a reflection of the military's conventional wisdom that this war cannot be won by force alone. Any victory will have to result from a political solution. Militarily the best the Administration can hope to achieve at this point is preventing the terrorist menace inside Iraq from spreading. Iraq is poised to become a base of worldwide terrorism whereas it was not before. Indeed, Iraq may well become what Afghanistan was before we overthrew the Taliban if the Jihadists have their way.
This brings us to Iran. Currently, the one true victor of the Iraq war appears to be Iran. Retired General and former Democratic Presidential candidate Wesley Clark published a thoughtful Op-Ed in the New York Times recently, warning of that very possibility. He disagrees with both political parties; neither favoring Bush's stay the course strategy or Murtha's redeployment plan. He instead advocates increasing emphasis on securing Iraq's borders with Iran and Syria. I'm more inclined to agree with Congressman Murtha's approach. As I see it, we can't even secure the Mexican border in our own country so trying to secure Iraq's borders by retaining the occupation is near impossible. However, General Clark's opinions are not easily dismissed. One part of Clark's Op-Ed especially captured my attention:
"The American approach shows little sense of Middle Eastern history and politics. As one prominent Kuwait academic explained to me, in the Muslim world the best way to deal with your enemies has always been to assimilate them - you never succeed in killing them all, and by trying to do so you just make more enemies."
http://www.nytimes.com/...
Getting back to Iran, Saddam was a bulwark and prevented them from extending their hegemony in the Persian Gulf. That's why Saddam's Arab neighbors put up with him. With Saddam's removal from power the majority Shiite population has an opportunity to transform Iraq into a theocracy. Our ambassador in Iran is a skilled professional and has performed ably in facilitating compromises among the Shiite's, Kurds, and Sunnis on paper. But paper is only paper. The constitution under the Weimar Republic was merely paper as well. So for that matter was the Provisional Government under Alexander Kerensky in 1917 after Czar Nicholas II was removed from power. Iraq is a tinderbox and the mullah's of Iran are lying in the high weeds.
Iran is also vulnerable to instability in Iraq. For one thing, Al Quaeda and the Iranians are untrusting rivals and different culturally. Al Quaeda is on the front lines of fomenting terror and without a country. The mullah's of Iran have been in power for a generation and foment terror through proxies such as Hezbelloah in Israel. During the Cold War, Moscow fought ruthlessly by proxy across the globe but preferred stability on their borders. Too much unrest in Iraq has the potential to result in blow back for the Iranians. Saddam wanted nothing to do with Al Quaeda because he knew he couldn't control them. In spite of their religion the mullahs of Iran and Al Quaeda are in very different positions. Al Quaeda gains by instability while the mullah's want to preserve their control. There is also the potential spillover of instability among the former Sunni Baathists and the Kurds.
Added to this mix is an Iranian population primarily under age 30 and restive. While their newly elected President utters bombastic rhetoric against the West and Israel the people would prefer a rapprochement with the West - I doubt the new President will hold onto power. Iran needs western credits, reduced tension levels with the IAEA so they don't have to endure a sanctions regime, and economic opportunities for their young population that is increasingly pro American. So while an Islamic theocracy may be desirable, stability is just as important to them. They want to preserve their own authority and are suspicious of anything they can't control. They also don't want to have a threatening neighbor in Iraq because they remember the bloody war Saddam waged with them for eight years. Finally, they don't want the Americans threatening them right next-door and Iraqi instability might force the Americans to stay rather than leave. Put it all together and they need to talk.
The Bush Administration needs stability in Iraq and can't have it without the cooperation of the Iranians. Terrorism will not be contained inside Iraq unless the United States can reach a diplomatic accommodation with Iran. The Bush Administration realizes this and recently the two governments engaged in the highest level of negotiations since the 1979 revolution. Not surprisingly the Iranians are playing hard to get for now and refused more overtures. In their judgment Bush needs to talk more than they do and they can wait him out to extract more concessions. I think they're right. We have not heard the end of this Administration's outreach to Iran. Bush has no choice. We will knock on Iran's door again.
For Bush, a diplomatic initiative may be an opportunity to transform his image from the imperialist who tortures Muslims to peacemaker. He is currently shut out domestically. The President's prestige is emaciated internationally. Bush's entire legacy is contingent upon what happens in Iraq and he needs Iran for any chance at a favorable outcome. We've seen this sort of thing before. President Nixon, the staunch anti-Communist reached out to China hoping to gain leverage in Vietnam. Reagan of course. Ariel Sharon, a staunch Israeli Zionist has formed a new political party dedicated to negotiating new borders with a Palestinian state. So, could it be that George W. Bush, reviled by Muslims worldwide, will go to a charter member of the "Axis of Evil" in Iran? It would be a huge gamble. One that can backfire severely. With three plus years left in Bush's term I predict he will.