Recently,
Stratfor came out with their new analysis of the conflict in the Middle East. Surprisingly, it came with this bit of news.
Kaplinsky, an army officer who commanded the elite Golani Brigade, has been put in charge of the Lebanese operation. Halutz, an air force officer who had been criticized for waging an extended air campaign that did not shut down rocket attacks, is ceding authority over the war.
The conclusion to be made here is that Israel is shutting down diplomacy for a more extensive attack on Lebanon, with a possible ground invasion of Lebanon.
More troubling news of this conflict below the fold...
While I have not agreed with Israel's actions, I originally believed that they would do what they said: fight Hezballah, and get the hell out. However, it is looking more and more like the IDF will be bogged down in Lebanon for some time, all amid growing tensions.
Yesterday, hundreds to thousands of people protested these tensions in Kuwait, Azerbaijan, the Philippines and Indonesia. Furthermore, a snippet of news from Air Security tells us that:
A spokesperson for the Indonesian Mujahideen Council... stated on 8 August 2006 that 500 volunteers are ready to be deployed to Lebanon and Palestinian-controlled areas in an effort to help fight against the Israeli military. This statement comes separately from the ASEAN Muslim Youth Movement statement on 4 August, which claimed that 200 Islamic militants from various Southeast Asian countries were planning to travel abroad to conduct suicide bomb attacks against Israeli targets and against businesses and countries that support Israel.
If organizations are sending "soldiers" into Lebanon (much like Iran has done with Iraq), this situation will become more sticky. It is troubling also for the civilians: the longer the war, the more innocent people will die.
Another good question I saw asked is, who benefits from this? Who would be most pleased to see the US and Israel bogged down in fighting while losing more international credibility as they go along? My guess is Iran. They are the center for Shiite politics, and with Shiites winning the battle in Lebanon and Iraq, they have the most to gain. The conflicts are also diverting attention from their (admittedly small) nuclear program. We know that they are a long time from any military uses for a nuclear program, but the debacle is allowing them to continue their projects in peace. I have the feeling that they realized a short while ago that they now have three aces. Now if only they could get that fourth...
Any other thoughts? It's interesting to debate this in not a "who's right vs. who's wrong" light, but rather, what do we think will happen soon?