The data is still sketchy and incomplete, but we're starting to get the first hints at the effect of Dean's Thursday debate, Sawyer interview, and Letterman appearance.
American Research Group says:
Today's tracking gives some hints about debate performance on Thursday and the impact of Howard Dean's Primetime interview. The trends suggest that (1) Howard Dean's slide in ballot preference has stopped (Dean's 3-day favorable has increased to 35% from 31% and his unfavorable has decreased to 37% from 42%).
Meanwhile, Suffolk's tracking poll shows a dramatic Dean recovery. The numbers are a single day's results (not the composite three-day tally), so MoE is massive (about 7%). And none of the other polls have duplicated these results yet. So it may all be statistical noise, but in any case, these are the daily tracking poll results over the
last three days.
1/20 1/21 1/22 1/23
Kerry 17 24 30 23
Dean 24 21 17 22
Clark 15 14 16 18
My theory is still operative. I think Dean's numbers on Sunday will start inching back up. By Tuesday, Dean should be within 5-10 points of Kerry, if not better. Then real votes will be cast and the top four candidates -- even Edwards despite his languishing poll numbers -- will have a chance to win this thing.
Update: Zogby seems to concur:
Pollster John Zogby: “Kerry’s lead is now 9 points over three days; however he led only by 26%-22% over Dean in Friday polling alone, while Edwards and Lieberman each hit 10% [...]
“Dean’s showing on Friday may suggest that he has bottomed out and may in fact be starting to increase. Kerry’s 26-point performance on Friday is factored into two previous nights of double-digit leads. Another day like this and Dean may be in striking distance again.
“More than three-in-five (62%) of Dean’s supporters say their support is ‘very strong,” as do 60% of Kerry’s. There appears to be movement here, as there was in Iowa.”
Kerry is still outpolling in the single-day sample, but it's down to four points. Wow. At this rate, the overall three-day rolling average will start tightening tomorrow.
And then tomorrow night we'll have Kerry's 60 Minutes appearance to factor into the equation. Edwards and Clark are shut out of the Big Media Circuit right now. The "front runner" and "insurgent" always suck up most of the limelight.