Mason-Dixon. 5/22-24. (No trend lines)
Democratic Primary, MoE 6%
Morrison (D) 42
Tester (D) 41
General Election, MoE 4%
Burns (R) 42
Tester (D) 45
Burns (R) 41
Morrison (D) 48
That's a big margin of error, but M-D is probably the most respected polling outfit in politics.
"The thing that strikes me is that Morrison is still better known than Tester, but Tester has a higher favorable rating with Democrats,'' said Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, which conducted the poll. "Tester may have a little more upward mobility. He's pretty well-positioned for the primary. I think it's a close race, but if Tester won, it wouldn't surprise me.''
M-D also polled on the Burns and Morrison scandals, and both spell trouble for the respective candidates:
The poll asked voters if negative events involving Burns and Morrison affected their votes.
The Burns question read: "U.S. Sen. Conrad Burns has received campaign contributions from lobbyist Jack Abramoff, his associates and his clients more than any member of Congress. Critics say Burns promoted Abramoff's agenda, while Burns said he did nothing wrong. Does this controversy make you less likely to vote for Burns, or does it have no real effect on your voting decision?''
Forty-eight percent of voters said the Abramoff issue made them less likely to vote for Burns, while 44 percent it had no effect and 8 percent were unsure.
"The numbers on the Abramoff question tell you exactly why Conrad Burns is in trouble,'' pollster Coker said.
The Morrison question read: "Before he was elected state auditor, John Morrison had an extramarital affair with a woman who later married a man whom Morrison investigated for securities fraud. Critics say the man received special treatment because of Morrison's past relationship with his wife, while Morrison's defenders say the case was handled properly. Does this controversy make you less likely to vote for Morrison or does it have no real effect on your voting decision?''
Sixty-six percent of voters said the Morrison controversy would have no effect on their voting decision, while 29 percent said they were less likely to vote for Morrison and 5 percent were undecided.
"The Morrison issue didn't seem to cut quite as hard, but it's at about 30 percent,'' Coker said. "It's probably scared some Democrats too, They see an opportunity to beat Conrad Burns, and they're worried about Morrison's skeleton in the closet.''
Tester has said he's the only Democrat who can go toe-to-toe with Burns on the ethics issue.
Among Democrats, Tester has an amazing unfavorability rating of 1 percent. Morrison has an unfavorability rate among Democrats of 9 percent.