New poll on MA-Gov. race in 2006

There is still much speculation about whether Mitt Romney runs for a second term or instead retires to run for the White House in 2008. If he really has ambitions directed to D.C., he probably should retire as it seems more and more unlikely that he could win reelection.

New poll numbers from here and here:

Numbers after the fold

Poll by State House News Service for KRC
taken 2/28-3/1/05
404 MA residents, MoE 4.8%

Romney: 39,6%
Reilly: 49,1% (Dem AG)

The first article also notes that Romney runs even with Dem SoS Galvin, while Reilly polls far ahead in the dem primary.

So things look good in MA, if Romney really runs for reelection, he should be toast as would be his presiential ambitions in that case. Seems it's not that good of an idea for a Gov. from MA to campaign in South Carolina...

•  Deval Patrick

  There have been rumblings lately including an NECN interview with him that have suggested that he is goign to enter the race...he is an interesting character and could breathe life into the democratic chances for MA gov 2006.

  he was a civil rights attorney under Clinton and apparently has Big Dawg's backing (although some complicated money flow issues b/c hillary's $ has already found its way to Reilly)...stay tuned.

  by throwlikeagirl on Fri Mar 04, 2005 at 06:10:01 AM PDT

  •  Someone remind me

    How did Mitt win in the first place?  Who was the Dem nominee -- I know whoever it was beat my favorite dwarven Labor Secretary in the primary.

    by Adam B on Fri Mar 04, 2005 at 06:22:16 AM PDT

    •  Dem's candidate was

      Shannon O'Brien

      by stevetat on Fri Mar 04, 2005 at 06:25:39 AM PDT

      •  And it should have been

        Robert Reich.  Please, MA dems, don't go blowing it again by nominating whoever is the next tired old Dem party hack who's served their time and feels it's their right to "inherit" the governorship.

        Just sayin'

        by original practice on Fri Mar 04, 2005 at 06:32:53 AM PDT

        •  Reilly

          Reilly, as Attorney General, is not the party hack that O'Brien was.  People forget that the O'Brien family had been in Massachusetts politics forever -- her father was on the Governor's council at the time (he's since passed, I believe) and was a Western Massachusetts institution.  She was much more wedded to the party than is Reilly, who is much more of a self-made pol.

          Reilly is not without baggage of his own, and I imagine after the Herald, the Lowell Sun and the AM Radio yakkers get their hit pieces out on him, these numbers will be a lot closer.  Still, I think he would be a better governor than Mittens by leaps and bounds.

          by Jugwine on Fri Mar 04, 2005 at 06:54:43 AM PDT

    •  The Glove's last opponent...

      Shannon O'Brien was Romney's opponent the first time 'round.

      by zeitshabba on Fri Mar 04, 2005 at 06:32:05 AM PDT

    •  How Mitt won

      I couldn't believe it when he won. I never thought it was possible.

      Shannon O'Brien lost because she was too closely identified with the corrupt legislative leadership, because she wasn't an impressive individual, and because she came across unpleasantly in the debates. She did have the unified support of the Democratic party, which is a nice step beyond what previous candidates had, and piled up big vote totals in the cities and in the west. Romney won because the suburbs turned out HUGE to support him.

      These suburbs are where he targeted Democratic legislators in the 2004 election. It stands to reason, right? Yet none of his candidates made it. That surprised me.

      by brittain33 on Fri Mar 04, 2005 at 06:47:02 AM PDT

  •  patrick is black and thats about it

    honestly, besides the fact that patrick is a well spoken black man, he isnt that special. he is not obama. he has some major scandal w/a retirement package from a major corporation where he wont even admit to how much it was--something like $30mil. we're gonna end up w/a kerry situation where we are always explaining away his money.

    i know its nice to pick a minority candidate, esp a well spoken black man..esp after obama. but this isnt patrick.

    i hope this post didnt sound mean, i think patrick is a GREAT guy and a good democrat. but he's not as special as people are making him out to be.

    by AmericanHope on Fri Mar 04, 2005 at 06:41:23 AM PDT

    •  The Patrick boomlet

      I don't know why people are so excited about Deval Patrick. He may turn out to be a good candidate, who knows, but for now all we know is that he's the only other guy besides Reilly who has expressed an interest in the race, and that he identifies as a progressive.

      I appreciate the sentiments but that is not nearly enough to make him a viable candidate for governor or a man we should all support. He has never run for anything before. That's a bad sign.

      by brittain33 on Fri Mar 04, 2005 at 06:44:27 AM PDT

      •  the Obama factor

        i think it has to do with Obama being a star, and patrick looking like "The next obama" in some people's eyes.

        and i know b/c thats what i thought until i did some research into the guy. he just seemed like a bit of a phoney to me. not a bad guy, not a bad guy at all, but def. not obama. and once thats removed, he's just another guy.

        he also said in the interview that he wasnt sure he was gonna run. i think if reilly keeps posting strong #s against romney, patrick might just not run.

        he could also be a good pick for lt. governor, but thats a long way off

        by AmericanHope on Fri Mar 04, 2005 at 06:49:09 AM PDT

        •  He'll Run

          I think he'll run.  Not to win, but to get his name out.  He's laying a foundation for the future.

          by Jugwine on Fri Mar 04, 2005 at 06:58:16 AM PDT

    •  WTF Are You Talking About !!!!!

      honestly, besides the fact that patrick is a well spoken black man, he isnt that special

      Deval Patrick was the nation's chief law enforcement officer for civil rights and was General Counsel of a Fortune 500 company !  But to hear you talk, he's someone who has no credentials and is just getting attention because "he's black !"   That's BULLSHIT !!!!!  Deval Patrick's credentials are way better that 99% of the machine hack politicans that are routinely nominated for high office.  Your attitude is symbolic of what black professionals have to put up with throughout careers.  Far too often, it matters not black professionals have achieved or how hard they worked, there is always going to be some dumb ass who says that "being black" is their most noteworthy credential.  And far too often, that bullshit is coming from mouth of some self-described 'liberal.'  

      And as far as comparisons with Obama, there have been black Senators before Obama, so every black man that runs for higher office is not being compared to Obama by anyone outside those white people who feel a need to point to Obama for some type of validation of their "inclusiveness."

      by Grand Poobah on Fri Mar 04, 2005 at 07:24:37 AM PDT

      •  Deval Patrick

        I totally agree that the idea that "it's because he's black/the new Obama" is not accurate and not what's going on here. I think that positioning himself as a progressive outsider in the mold of Howard Dean is what's getting him the attention, along with the absence of anyone else potentially inspiring on the Democratic ticket. I do think his race brings him a little more attention, but who cares? In more cases than this being black is considered a disqualifier from statewide office, so why choose to bitch about the way it works now?  It's not as if Shannon O'Brien didn't get a lot of bonus points from the prefix to her last name.

        That said, I don't think his professional background is strong preparation for either running for office or serving as governor. He reminds me of Bill McBride or Chris Gabrieli--outsiders with a good story but without the specific experience needed to make it the last five yards. Politics is a messy game that requires specific strategies to get things done.

        I know little about Deval Patrick beyond his professional credentials. I am anxious to learn more and certainly not thrilled with defaulting to Reilly.

        by brittain33 on Fri Mar 04, 2005 at 08:00:13 AM PDT

        •  On Preparation for Office

          Actually, I think some of the prominent issues of the day give Patrick a leg up on his competition in a debate.  Who better to discuss gay marriage and legal protections of gay residents than the former head of the Civil Rights division ?  Who better to discuss tort reform than the former chief legal officer of two of the world's most prominent companies (Texaco and Coca-Cola) ?    Who better to discuss election reform than someone who worked for the NAACP on voting rights issues?    Being in the public service does not always mean holding public office, though I acknowledge that experience in the rough and tumble of getting legislation passed is always helpful.  I'm not bitching that Patrick may stand out from the pack as far getting notice because of his race.  What I object to is someone claiming that "being black" is the only credential he brings to the table.  I think he brings plenty as far as experience to be considered a serious candidate for Governor and he'll have to make his case on the campaign trail like everyone else.

          by Grand Poobah on Fri Mar 04, 2005 at 08:20:23 AM PDT

          •  "bitching"

            I thought that I didn't phrase that well--I was referring to the idea of complaining that Patrick was only getting attention because he was black, not  in response to anything you were saying.

            Anyway, thanks for the reply. I'll try to respond later, but in the meantime I wanted to clear up that point.

            by brittain33 on Fri Mar 04, 2005 at 08:40:47 AM PDT

•  Didn't Romney already announce that he's running?

  I believe I read it here and at boston.com the Tuesday before Thanksgiving.

  I guess this makes him a flip-flopper.

  by NonemptySubset on Fri Mar 04, 2005 at 06:30:21 AM PDT

  •  Yes, but no, but yeah, but no

    He said he was totally focused on running for re-election. I was ready to take that at face value. However, the more he goes to other states and bashes Massachusetts, and takes positions more conservative than what he said when running for governor, the less able I am to believe he really means to run again.

    If he thinks he can make a run at the Presidential nomination, he'll blow off Massachusetts in a second. His voters have disappointed him. The state doesn't appreciate his bold CEO leadership. Why wouldn't he rush into the warm embrace of Republican primary voters in red states? That's his base.

    by brittain33 on Fri Mar 04, 2005 at 06:42:09 AM PDT

  •  "i fully anticipate running"

    those are his exact words.

    by AmericanHope on Fri Mar 04, 2005 at 06:50:43 AM PDT

•  Holy Underwear

  Did I read somewhere that Romney is a Mormon?  If so he might as well give up the dream right now because there's no way a Mormon could make it through the Southern Republican primaries, no matter how many gays/seniors/blacks/scapegoats-of-the-day he bashes.  The Religious Right is happy to use Orrin Hatch and Utah's electoral votes, but they are far more deeply hostile to what they consider Christian heresies (also the Jehovah's Witnesses, Christian Scientists, etc.) than they are to Catholics or Jews.  He'd be DOA.

  by greeneyechicago on Fri Mar 04, 2005 at 06:31:24 AM PDT

•  Prez

  If Romney was going to run nationally, I imagine the Dem MA legislature would send a few nice wedge-issue bills his way at the end of his term just to sink him.  Unlike Bush, Romney doesn't have the benefit of the whole state political apparatus to keep anything controversial off his desk while he runs.

  by monster on Fri Mar 04, 2005 at 07:06:29 AM PDT

•  SoS Galvin

  Yesterday's Boston Phoenix had a piece on Bill Galvin's potential campaign.

  by MAJeff on Fri Mar 04, 2005 at 07:11:00 AM PDT