The symptom:
The underlying problem:
(note that the above graph makes the wildly optimistic assumption that US oil production will actually increase from 8 to 10 mb/d in the next
5 years. But that's essentially irrelevant, focusing on the supply side instead of the demand side).
The cause (well, actually, one of them, but certainly the biggest):
Real efforts were made in the 70s to cut fuel consumption per car - and it was, by more than a third in a few years. Since them, all efforts
have been abandoned and fuel efficiency is no better than 20 years ago. Do you know many economic statistics where you can say "Americans are
doing no better than 20 years ago - and have in fact been doing steadily worse"? Thanks to the love affair with trucks, the average has been declining throughout.
But the solution is still sought in finding more oil, whether in Alaska, in Iraq or in Equatorial Guinea. Nope the solution, the ONLY solution, is to stop burning so much of the stuff.
How can this be made any clearer?
You do not need trucks. In fact, you cannot afford trucks. You think you do, but you are really making your kids pay them. Even in Europe, we use our smaller cars too much, despite our 6$/gal gasoline. We cannot keep this up, and WE WON'T. But we can choose to wean ourselves off and prepare for the alternatives, or to let reality take it away from us brutally. I believe that's still our choice, and that makes me an optimist.
All graphs from this Financial Times article with a pretty explicit title: `America is still in denial about energy' (25 July, behind a subscription wall)