Courtesy of Freerepublic, of all places. Also, I should point out that his numbers actually swung towards the final results in last few days, so his final polls (statewise, with the marked exception of California, which he had as a tie in his final state poll), were fairly close to the actual election day results. Anyway, below are the numbers from November 1, 2000. People really need to get some perspective and calm down. Tracking polls are not definitive. Zogby is not a "God," even though he says things sometimes that people here like. He is a good pollster, but he has made a lot of mistakes - as do all pollsters. If you want to follow polls, here are two ground rules: 1) average everything that comes together and don't rely on select pollsters; 2) one poll is an outlier, three are a trend. Anyway, below are Zogby's state tracking polls from November 1, 2000:
Florida: Gore 48, Bush 41 - final result, Bush 48.9, Gore 48.9
Ohio: Bush 48, Gore 40 - final result, Bush 50, Gore 46.5
Washington: Gore 45, Bush 43 - final result, Gore 50.1, Bush 44.6
Illinois: Gore 46, Bush 42 - final result, Gore 54.6, Bush 42.6
Tennessee: Bush 48, Gore 45 - final result, Bush 51.1, Gore 47.3
Michigan: Gore 50, Bush 41 - final result, Gore 51.3, Bush 46.1
Pennsylvania: Gore 47, Bush 41 - final result, Gore 50.6, Bush 46.4
Wisconsin: Gore 45, Bush 42 - final result, Gore 47.8, Bush 47.6
So in other words, Zogby didn't "blow" any state. But his Florida poll was wrong, and his Wisconsin poll was almost "wrong." There was also significant movement towards one candidate or the other in the campaign's final weeks which cannot be attributed to something like W's DUI: why did Illinois, Ohio, and Washington trend Gore, while Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, and Michigan trend Bush, for example.
Of course, John Zogby (as would any pollster) would argue that I've taken these "snapshots" out of context and that his final results were more accurate. And he is essentially right. But that is what the folks who "panic" at not really that bad state polling do here as well.
UPDATE: I'm not trying to "debunk" Zogby. I think he is a good pollster, one of the better ones around. However, there were a number of comments in several previous threads talking about how "bad" these numbers are for Kerry (which I don't think they are) and I was just trying to point out the way in which tracking polls fluctuate.
Ben P