Two third of Americans oppose gay marriage, but only about half oppose Bush's
"Not for homos" amendment. What this means in practice is that gay marriage will not come through legislation and our political system. The political process in Massachusetts, that bluest of blue states, ought to provide plenty of evidence of that. Recent polling is beginning to suggest the amendment against marriage will pass
with or without language on civil unions. Kerry's support of the inclusion of civil unions in Massachusetts has pushed debate far to the left of what it was before, when the Democratic Speaker in the Massachusetts House refused to even consider them in such an amendment.
The current political atmosphere provides plenty of evidence to suggest the possibility of civil unions in extremely blue states: California, Vermont and New Jersey, where they already exist or soon will, and the few others that have strong Democratic majorities in the legislature and Democratic governors. And that's it. Don't expect them anywhere else. Do, on the other hand, expect plenty of anti-marriage and anti-civil unions legislation in red states.
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