Election time in Canada (probably).

Last night I got an email from my riding's Federal Liberal Party calling the meeting this coming Friday night to renominate our MP, Steven Owen, for the next federal election.

And today (for those following the story), the Globe and Mail reports Harper's reaction to the Liberal-NDP deal:

Conservative Leader Stephen Harper sharply criticized a deal made between the NDP and the Liberals to help the Liberal minority government survive, saying the $4.6-billion agreement has increased his party's determination to bring down the government.
"As soon as we get back [to the House of Commons], I will be asking our caucus to put this government out of its misery at the earliest possible opportunity," Mr. Harper said during a speech for business leaders in Amherstburg, Ont., on Wednesday.

Harper's turning on the "Liberal-NDP [lefty left, socialist! hiss! spit!]" budget means the government is likely to fall:

With 307 sitting MPs, the government would need 154 votes to pass a no-confidence motion. The Liberals would require the help of all 19 NDP MPs, all of their own party's 131 MPs, the three independent MPs and the Speaker of the House. At least one independent, a former Tory, has said he will vote against the Liberals. It is assumed that the Tories and the Bloc Québécois, who number 153, would vote for the motion.

A separate article finds that support for seperatism in Quebec has reached 54%, which I think is the highest since before the 2000 election, with 49% of Quebeckers now looking for another referendum.  That's basically what Mr. Duceppe means when he says the current budget is "bad for Quebec": the Bloc will gain seats in the spring election.  Harper's anti-left ranting against "this NDP budget" suggests he thinks the Tories can too, though I think he underestimates Canadian affection for the NDP, at least in the provinces where it matters.

Anyhoo, it looks like we're headed for a spring election up north.

•  Bring it on

  Harper is Unelectable.

  This "scandal" was already made an election issue.

  People aren't shocked by any of the revelations. All Canadians assumed the worst when we knocked the liberal party down to minority rule.

  Harper is just grandstanding and obviously not listening to the electorate.

  Let him force an election....

  Jack Layton will become our next prime minister.

  Harper will lose the leadership of his own party and will go back to some boardroom.

  by AnonymousArmy on Wed Apr 27, 2005 at 04:10:05 PM PDT

  •  Layton doesn't have the numbers n/t

    by catnip on Wed Apr 27, 2005 at 04:51:48 PM PDT

    •  Right now maybe not...

      But if Stephen Harper is stupid enough to force an election after Layton MASTERFULLY forged a compromise with the Liberals over populist issues, you will see Harper implode.

      Also...The Canadian people want cooperation not partisan bickering.

      Layton showed that his social programs must only come with a balanced budget which will help easy moderates who fear the tax and spend reputation of the NDP.

      I'm confident that IF the cons are dumb enough to force an election Canadians will send them all back even further away from majority rule than we did last time.
      

      by AnonymousArmy on Wed Apr 27, 2005 at 05:03:20 PM PDT

•  What will Ontario do?

  I live close the border and regularly watch the news on CBC, but don't know Ontarians well enough to figure out whether they'll vote Tory this time around.

  That said, my guess is that Harper is too far west and too far to the right for mainstream Ontario--but could he win a large number of seats in a three-way race?

  by Dump Terry McAuliffe on Wed Apr 27, 2005 at 04:17:22 PM PDT

  •  My sense is...

    That Toronto, the 905, Ottawa and London will remain Liberal, with a few seats drifting NDP, the CRRAP (I can't call them Conservative) will pick up maybe 15 to 20 seats in a belt stretching through rural Southern Ontario from Ottawa through to Windsor.

    My prediction is a reduced Liberal minority.

    DFooK

    by deepfish on Wed Apr 27, 2005 at 04:36:27 PM PDT

  •  Ontario

    It's hard to believe Ontario would go Conservative. When people aren't paying that much attention, and they probably are not, they go with who they know. Reduced Liberal minority still seems possible which means big waste of time(except for that being Harper's last go) and money.

    If you are voting against corruption I don't know how you vote for Harper and friends

    by Wiseprince on Wed Apr 27, 2005 at 04:47:06 PM PDT

    •  exactly

      As one commentator put it, why would Canadians want to spend $200 million on an election to oust a government that is accused (not found guilty yet) of losing $100 million in the sponsorship scandal? Not to mention the fact that some of that $100 million is recoverable from those who stole it in the first place.

      Oh and it was fun to watch testimony from a conservative, Paul Coffin, who siphoned money from the government's coffers today too. Yes, those conservatives are so innocent. It was all liberals. Right.

      by catnip on Wed Apr 27, 2005 at 04:56:01 PM PDT

      •  Thanks!

        As usual, I can count on my fellow Kossacks.

        by Dump Terry McAuliffe on Wed Apr 27, 2005 at 07:53:22 PM PDT

•  NDP vs. Liberal

  People, don't get fooled by the "Liberal" name.  The Martin Liberals are like Clinton Democrats.  The party is no longer the progressive party of Pierre Trudeau.  It's obsessed with balanced budgets, paying down the debt and selling out to corporate interests.  If you want a progressive political party, support the NDP.

  I agree there likely will be an election on June 25.  All three independents would have to vote against the no-confidence motion.  While one will, it's unlikely that bot of the more conservative independents will.

  by Paleo on Wed Apr 27, 2005 at 04:29:24 PM PDT

  •  Paying down the debt is bad?

    And balanced budgets bad?

    What are you, an American Republican?

    Small-l liberal idealism does you squat if you're broke.

    by Northwatch on Wed Apr 27, 2005 at 04:32:23 PM PDT

    •  Re:

      Paying the down debt when health care and other social spending is badly needed is not only bad, it's despicable.  It's classic Republicanism to talk about balancing the budget and paying down the debt as the foremost goal of government.

      by Paleo on Wed Apr 27, 2005 at 04:36:05 PM PDT

      •  But see, the difference is...

        Republicans only talk about balancing the budget and paying down the debt (while doing the exact opposite). The Liberals actually did it. They got Canada's finances into such good shape, we can now afford better health care and more social spending.

        The Liberals embody the Canadian political centre: strongly in favour of government spending to make life better for average Canadians... but only as much spending as the country can afford.

        We learned the hard way that if you spend more than that, pretty soon a bigger and bigger chunk of your tax money has to go to handle interest payments, and there's less and less money available to help people.

        by Canadian Reader on Wed Apr 27, 2005 at 05:28:02 PM PDT

    •  Yup.

      Actually, I'd argue the Martin Liberals are well to the left of the Clinton Democrats, well to the left (and I am a Clinton Democrat with reservations.)  Beyond that, the tragedy of the Clinton Democrats was that when they finally finished cleaning up the GOP budget mess and had some surplus to invest in R&D and education and social infrastructure, Americans went and elected another hard right government who quickly gave away the farm in supply-side tax cuts.  Which is exactly what Martin will do if he gets the chance.

      Last summer, Michael Moore and Ralph Nader were up here urging Canadians to vote Liberal.  Thankfully, we did (compared to what some, including my polisci friends, were predicting anyway).

      by tlaura on Wed Apr 27, 2005 at 04:39:55 PM PDT

      •  Yikes!

        HARPER!  "Exactly what Harper will do if he gets the chance."

        by tlaura on Wed Apr 27, 2005 at 04:40:44 PM PDT

•  The best Harper can hope for

  is a minority government.  Full stop.  The Conservatives don't have nearly the reach they hope they do and the Liberals have stopped bleeding in the polls, at least for the moment.

  And the problem for the Conservatives is that assuming they get in they've got no significant policies that another party would agree on sufficiently that they could get passed.  On social issues, especially, they are way out of luck.

  Incidentally, this reality is why many of we Canadian posters don't regard a Conservative government as a huge catastrophe.  With the US, where the choice is basically one or the other, and if the other ones (whatever your politics are) you are faced with an agenda that goes against what you want.

  We aren't in that situation up here.  Now, a Conservative minority government isn't going to pass gay marriage legislation, but they won't be in a position to amend laws to prohibit it either, and with the rulings in the provinces and territories that ship has already sailed.  They try to cozy up to the US in missile defense, they're doomed.  Screw with Medicare, doomed.  Touch virtually any social program, doomed.

  In fact, one amusing possibility with a Conservative minority government is that they could be faced with the possibility of someone from one of the other three parties, all of whom officially support gay marriage, putting out a private member's bill to do exactly what the proposed Liberal legislation would.

  by Northwatch on Wed Apr 27, 2005 at 04:30:40 PM PDT

  •  The problem

    is that if the Conservatives get a minority, Canadians will be so sick of elections that the Liberals won't dare bring a non-confidence vote on anything other than the most draconian budget.  That could mean some fairly serious right wing legislative drift.  And Harper will send the country right back into the red if last summer's platform and his pandering to the premiers is any indication.  So much for social investments.

    That's why I think this is an important election.

    by tlaura on Wed Apr 27, 2005 at 04:35:35 PM PDT

    •  Harper

      Harper will become another blip on the political radar screen just like Joe Clark.

      by catnip on Wed Apr 27, 2005 at 04:48:52 PM PDT

•  Putting on my

  tin foil hat...

  Watching Harper bluster away on CBC news (I, too live close to the border and have family on the other side) methinks there is a little American birdie whispering in his ear with sweet words of encouragement and promises of visits for Texas barbecue.

  by hazey on Wed Apr 27, 2005 at 04:38:34 PM PDT

•  talking point

  Harper is in bed with the Bloc. Quebec separatist support is one the rise. Ergo, Harper is bolstering Quebec separatism. And that, Mr Harper (my MP), is not what Canadians want. Destroy this country at your peril because the history books will include your name in the chapter on the separation of Quebec from Canada.

  by catnip on Wed Apr 27, 2005 at 04:45:35 PM PDT

  •  Budget

    What will Harper goto Canadians with? We defeated the government because we didn't like the fact that they put more money into affordable housing and education; that money should have gone to Big cooperations. Regardless of the Martin government would have actually done that if they had the power the perception is enough.

    by Wiseprince on Wed Apr 27, 2005 at 04:50:19 PM PDT

    •  the "NDP budget"

      ...as Harper calls it, actually contains line items that are important to Canadians, but Harper seemed to blow a fuse when he found out his corporate buddies would be losing their tax cut (which they're not actually losing anyway, since Martin is going to see that it comes up under separate legislation).

      Martin took a gamble to get more lefty support. I think it was worth it.

      by catnip on Wed Apr 27, 2005 at 04:59:39 PM PDT

•  Independents

  Carolyn Parrish is an independent now and she's already said she'll support the Liberals.

  by catnip on Wed Apr 27, 2005 at 05:00:53 PM PDT

  •  It's Chuck Cadman

    Here's yesterday's Globe report: here.

    Kilgour also might not vote with the government but probably wouldn't be willing to be the one to bring it down.  And Parrish is pretty unhappy with everyone but won't vote for an election.

    by tlaura on Wed Apr 27, 2005 at 05:21:04 PM PDT

•  Backlash against Cons

  Nobody wants this election except the BQ and Harper's power-mad cult. I suspect a backlash against the Cons in BC and maybe Ontario.

  Several ridings here in BC (including my own) flipped from NDP to Con in the wee hours during the last election. I think these ridings will go NDP this time, so hopefully the NDP winds up with 25-30 seats if there is an election.

  It's still about Ontario, though. If Harper can break through in Ontario and form a majority, it may be time to think about a left-center coalition party made up of the NDP and the remaining lefty Liberals.

  by skrymir on Wed Apr 27, 2005 at 05:05:51 PM PDT

•  tlaura-

  Just wanted to say thanx for the diary, it was nice and refreshing to see and read for us Canucks. I was doing a lot of reflecting on the political scene diffences b/t us up north and this simpler version on kos- pick one party. I heard that MikeCan1978 is going to volunteer for the Liberals, and because of my experiences here, I'm thinking about doing the same for the NDP. It would probably be the Liberals, but I do think they need a little punishment for the Gomery mess, although I agree it's not necessarily 100% a Liberal party mess, it came under their watch.  Funny, isn't it- it takes an American political blog to finally get me excited enough to want to volunteer.....

  by bheuvel67 on Wed Apr 27, 2005 at 09:05:10 PM PDT

  •  Heh.

    I know what you mean.  I've always been more of an American partisan (I'm a dual citizen) but the Canadian discussion here recently, and watching what happened after the Dems lost the White House and seeing the similarities and differences between the two countries, especially as our own turnout falls election by election, has made me more and more activist in Canadian politics.  I joined the Liberals last week, like Mike, and am planning on working for them in the coming campaign too.  It's really good to have two supportable parties though; I'm definitely liberal in ideology (plus my MP rocks) but the Liberals would suck without the NDP.

    We Canucks will have to keep in touch over the coming campaign season.  It would be great for different people to post their own campaign experiences no matter which party they're working for.

    by tlaura on Wed Apr 27, 2005 at 09:22:15 PM PDT

    •  I agree.

      I've spent some time at a partisan group blog in the last little while, but it's just batting opinions back and forth, no action. I keep waiting for a Canuck dkos to put together a regular (weekly?) discussion for us to shoot ideas and experiences and advice around. (will she or catnip take the hint?) I was fantasizing the other day about a group of us, joined by mutual respect and enough shared political ideology, building a long-term online community that crosses the NDP, Green and Liberal party lines, getting together after the next election and sharing a few real (read Canadian) beers....

      by bheuvel67 on Thu Apr 28, 2005 at 11:08:54 AM PDT