OH-02 "not a lock," says right-wing blog

It's been said that Ohio's 2nd congressional district is a solidly Republican seat, is the most Republican district in Ohio, is not worth outside money, and is a lost caust for Democrats.  Anybody who says this hasn't been following the race very closely.  It's shaping up to be extraordinarily interesting, and I hope the DailyKos community takes notice.  The Ohio Progressive Alliance has started a great blog to cover this race.  Check it out.

The most recent hint that this race is going to be lively comes on a post today on BizzyBlog, a conservative blog styling itself "The business end of the blogosphere."  Today's post is entitled GOP Leaders and Candidates--It's Sober-Up Time in the 2nd Congressional District.  The thrust of the post is that if Paul Hackett wins the Democratic nomination, as is looking increasingly likely (with endorsements from the Hamilton, Pike, and Clermont County parties and the UAW and IBEW), then "audible GOP gulps will be heard across the 2nd District."  More interesting quotes below.

"Any justification for the GOP's foolish and dangerous overconfidence cited in previous posts should have evaporated by now. From this admittedly limited vantage point (or basement, depending on time of day), it hasn't, despite the fact that the other side is uniting behind a pretty strong-looking candidate:"

Better still: "Don't even try to tell me August 2 is a lock if Paul Hackett is the other candidate on the ballot."

Paul Hackett is an attorney, former city councillor, and Marine Corps Civil Affairs officer recently returned from Iraq.  Meanwhile, Republicans are entrenched in a hopelessly divisive primary fight between nepotist Pat DeWine (son of Sen. Mike), former congressman and Dobson pick Bob McEwen, Right to Life activist Jean Schmidt, and several others.  It's wide open on their side, but the former front-runner, DeWine, has been brutally hurt by his dad's role in the filibuster compromise.  I personally am praying that he is the nominee.

There's a lot of exciting stuff going on in this race.  I recommend following, and let's have no more "this seat is unwinnable" from those who haven't been following the race at all.

•  Interesting

  This is also a test of whether Ohio Democrats can take advantage of the coin scandal in Ohio.

  by Unstable Isotope on Sat May 28, 2005 at 01:11:25 PM PDT

  •  Absolutely

    Here at DailyKos we know how corruption-filled the Ohio Republican Party is (i.e. Blackwell, Ney, etc).  It will be interesting to see if it's an issue in this race.

    by lorax on Sat May 28, 2005 at 01:13:16 PM PDT

•  Thanks for the info

  Hackett does look quite formidable, judging by his website.

  by jj32 on Sat May 28, 2005 at 01:18:24 PM PDT

  •  I want him

    He can move to my congressional district if he can't get elected in Ohio.  I'd be very, very happy to work for his campaign here!!

    by Rayne on Sat May 28, 2005 at 04:08:31 PM PDT

•  A harbinger?

  We could be seeing history repeating itself--in '94, Repubs won special elections for seats in KY-2 and OK-5 (now OK-3), just a few months before they took control of the House.  Both of those seats had been held by Dems for a long, long time--and we haven't come close in either seat since then.

  I know that OH-2 is insanely Repub--only OH-4 (Oxley) is more Republican.  If the Repubs are this nervous about such a heavily Repub seat ...

  by Christian Dem in NC on Sat May 28, 2005 at 01:48:45 PM PDT

  •  Absolutely

    If all we've heard about the Republicans' generic Congress ratings falling through the floor is true, then we'll start to see evidence of it in races like this.  And if we do win this race, the perception of "blue tide" will start to take hold in the media, especially in Ohio.  Your point about special elections being a harbinger is shard by many on the media, so the positive coverage following a victory here will provide Democrats an enormous media boost and bring surges in contributions to candidates all over the country.  That's why this race is such a great opportunity.

    by lorax on Sat May 28, 2005 at 01:51:49 PM PDT

    •  Winning this seat is one thing

      but can we hold onto it?

      I just did a little quick research--OH-2 has been in Repub hands for all but nine years since 1873.  A Dem hasn't won this seat in his own right since 1937 (a Dem won a special election in 1974, but got bounced that November).

      And it includes some pretty Republican territory in the Cincy burbs.  Even more hostile than IL-8 ... still, if the Repubs are that nervous about a seat that has been in their hands this long ...

      by Christian Dem in NC on Sat May 28, 2005 at 01:59:30 PM PDT

      •  Correction

        This seat has been in Repub hands for all but nine years since 1879.  A Dem won it in 1873 and held it for six years--the last time a Dem held this seat for more than one term.

        by Christian Dem in NC on Sat May 28, 2005 at 02:01:46 PM PDT

      •  Once we win it

        we can hold it, thanks to the power of incumbency.  There is no incumbent right now, making it a big opportunity.  Once Hackett is in there, it would take a Herculean effort to get him out.  Incumbency is more important than anything else in House elections.

        by lorax on Sat May 28, 2005 at 02:02:42 PM PDT

      •  Tom Luken

        To Luken won OH-02 in a March 1974 special election, then lost in the 1974 general election. In 1976 he was returned to congress from Cincinnati's other district, OH-01.

        by davybaby on Sat May 28, 2005 at 02:28:10 PM PDT

        •  "Tom," not "To."

          Sorry for the typo!

          by davybaby on Sat May 28, 2005 at 02:28:45 PM PDT

          •  That's a risk

            but the power of incumbency has strengthened enormously since then.  Remember Herseth's experience last year...Extremely narrow victory in a special election, followed but a much more comfortable margin in November, despite Bush at the top of the ballot winning South Dakota big time.  I'm confident that whoever wins this seat in August will hold it in 2006.

            by lorax on Sat May 28, 2005 at 02:31:36 PM PDT

        •  Yeah--I remember from looking

          at the site I did research on--OH-2 is now OH-1 (after the 80s round of redistricting), held by Steve Chabot.

          by Christian Dem in NC on Sat May 28, 2005 at 03:17:00 PM PDT

          •  Not exactly

            The lines have changed over time--after all, Ohio had 23 seats in the 70s when Luken was first elected, and it has only 18 now--but OH-01 has always been the West side Cincinnati district while OH-02 has focused on the East side.  OH-01, which is 27% black, is only slightly Republican, while OH-02 is heavily Republican.

            2000 Results:
            OH-01: Bush 51%, Gore 46%
            OH-02: Bush 63%, Gore 34%

            by davybaby on Sat May 28, 2005 at 07:09:51 PM PDT

  •  Well

    We won special elections in KY-6 and SD-AL before losing 3 seats in 2004. People need to stop reading into to things too much.

    by UpstateNYDem on Sat May 28, 2005 at 01:59:15 PM PDT

    •  Ah, but remember

      We'd have gained seats if it wasn't for the DeLaymander.

      by Christian Dem in NC on Sat May 28, 2005 at 01:59:58 PM PDT

      •  Exactly

        We picked up a seat in Illinois, one in Colorado, and I think one or two others, but we lost 4 in Texas because of our ethically challenged friend Tom DeLay.

        by lorax on Sat May 28, 2005 at 02:01:20 PM PDT

        •  Georgia-12 too

          Democrat John Barrow beat Incumbent Republican Max Burns. Only one Democratic incumbent outside of Texas lost, Baron Hill of Indiana and his race was insanely close(the challenger won by less than 2k votes).

          by jj32 on Sat May 28, 2005 at 02:13:05 PM PDT

      •  Correct

        But, it was no indictation of a tide in any direction we would have gained 3 seats. We won new seats, Bean, Salazar, Higgins and Barrow. Bean got lucky with an out of touch incumbent, Salazar was a good fit for the district against a weak Republican and Higgins and Barrow brought Dems seats back to us. It was really a case by case thing.

        by UpstateNYDem on Sat May 28, 2005 at 02:03:25 PM PDT

        •  Correction

          2 Seats, I forgot about Geoff Davis.

          by UpstateNYDem on Sat May 28, 2005 at 02:07:02 PM PDT

        •  Regardless

          of whether or not special elections really are harbingers, many in the media perceive them as so.  As such, if we do win this seat, it will give Democrats nationwide a big boost in media coverage, with headlines like "Democrat wins in Republican heartland."  That would do wonders for our fundraising.

          by lorax on Sat May 28, 2005 at 02:07:05 PM PDT

          •  We had that last time

            We also happened to have two Democrats switch parties though. We need actual momentum though, and it needs to be strong, not just press headlines and fundraising. We have a gentle breeze now, and if the election were held today, we would probably pick up 2-4 seats but its going to have to get a lot stronger to get beyond that.

            by UpstateNYDem on Sat May 28, 2005 at 02:09:53 PM PDT

            •  What is momentum?

              Press headlines and fundraising seem like a pretty important aspect of momentum.  And last time we would have had a stronger tide if there hadn't been a presidential election going on that made most people forget that Congress was also at stake.  Momentum comes from a popular belief that things are going your way, and it was hard to get that idea out there when all the focus was on Kerry and Bush.

              by lorax on Sat May 28, 2005 at 02:14:34 PM PDT

              •  Now I'm preparing to be attacked

                For saying this, but the Party needs a positive agenda. Ask the average person what the Democrats would do if they were in charge. Now I'm sorry for "using a right wing frame", but in this game, perception is the only reality.

                by UpstateNYDem on Sat May 28, 2005 at 02:18:57 PM PDT

                •  Damn straight

                  No attacks forthcoming from me.  A positive agenda is exactly what we need, and like the Contract in America, we need all our candidates nationwide to be talking about it.

                  by lorax on Sat May 28, 2005 at 02:24:06 PM PDT

•  Recommendations, anyone?

  by lorax on Sat May 28, 2005 at 02:16:04 PM PDT

•  Taste of Cincinnati

  I saw a bunch of Paul Hackett campaign people at the Taste of Cincinnati today.
  

  by HairOnFire on Sat May 28, 2005 at 02:24:02 PM PDT

•  I was reading FreeRepublic the other day...

  ...they are very mad at Mike DeWine for compromising on filibusters and plan on opposing his son to pay him back.

  by Idioteque on Sat May 28, 2005 at 02:32:55 PM PDT

•  This seat is hopeless

  Of the counties only Scioto is somewhat friendly to the Democrats; but, even there, Kerry still got only 49% of the vote. The other counties are punishing toward Democrats. For Hackett to win this seat he is going to have to do very well in Scioto county, do well in the Hamilton County part of the seat, and keep his margins of defeat down in Clermont and Warren counties. This seat is heavily Republican. I don't see the Democrats winning it.

  by jiacinto on Sat May 28, 2005 at 02:34:15 PM PDT

  •  No seat is hopeless

    Especially if the Republican base is disillusion with the nominee because his daddy sold them out on the filibuster deal, and if the Democratic candidate is a charistmatic war vet.  I don't believe in "hopeless seats."

    by lorax on Sat May 28, 2005 at 02:42:19 PM PDT

  •  These areas

    are heavy with veterans and "Support out Troops" sentiment - the veteran of Iraq angle could very significant to perhaps overcome the usual thoughts on the demographics and historical voting patterns.

    by HairOnFire on Sat May 28, 2005 at 02:46:59 PM PDT

    •  True

      It could, but I don't see enough GOP peel off taking place to enable Hackett to win. Scioto County is going to have to turn out for him en masse for him to win.

      by jiacinto on Sat May 28, 2005 at 02:56:22 PM PDT

•  I could see a Dem sneaking in if

  the sentiment against DeWine père is enough to force DeWine fils' into a runoff.

  I happen to remember that Repubs have snuck into Dem fortresses before--that's how Bret Schundler got into the spotlight.

  by Christian Dem in NC on Sat May 28, 2005 at 03:14:56 PM PDT

•  It sounds like rallying the troops

  more than any real danger. I haven't even heard much discussion here, or anywhere, of any of the Dem challengers for this seat. It would be nice to win that seat, since most of the Thugs running are hatemongers.

  When Doris Matsui ran for her late husband's seat, some Dems said we shouldn't take that seat for granted. That didn't mean most of them actually thought they would lose the seat (at least not until Ahnold pushes his gerrymandering through).

  by JamesB3 on Sat May 28, 2005 at 03:38:24 PM PDT

•  Primary update: Who has the momentum?

  Tomorrow is primary election day in Ohio. Who's got the momentum? Paul Hackett has lined up the endorsements of most of the county Democratic committees, labor and the two largest circulation newspapers, The Dayton Daily News and the Cincinnati Enquirer. He is clearly the Dems front runner. One reason is people believe he can win the general.

  Meanwhile four Republican "frontrunners" bash each other and are separated by fewer than five points. All fighting over who is more Pro-Life and against any taxes. The mudslinging is actually beginning to embarass the Rethugs.

  Paul Hackett could register more votes than the republican winner. And the depth of bad feelings within the ranks of the supporters of the also ran repubs may well cause them to stay away. I ran into a McEwen staffer on Friday who said "if Pat Dewine wins, I will vote for Hackett." The biggest local NeoCon radio talkshow host in Cincinnati said the same thing on the air last week. Chinks in the armor.

  The General Special is August 2. Hard core Repubs will be "on the Cape" in August. Moderate Repub and independents are disgusted by Coingate and the Ohio GOP's "pay for play". There is nothing else on the ballot... no referendum assuring that a gay couple cannot get an abortion in Ohio.

  Ohio is NOT a red state. It was painted red by thieves. And by those of us that shrugged our shoulders and said, "What's the point? Why waste your time and money? Ohio's a republican state." As my old rugby coach used to say, "if it was close enough for the ref to give it to'em, then you didn't bloody well deserve to win!"

  Ohio is not a red state. It is just not Blue enough!

  This is the first opportunity in the U.S. for us to win back an important seat in Congress. Not Montana, not Virgina, not NJ. All important, but this is now. Right now.

  So, if you are not satisfied to wring your hands and bemoan our travel down the Road to Hell, Wednesday morning go to http://hackettforcongress.com  and commit to action. Help us take back our state, our Congress, our America. It will take hard work... at the precinct level. It will take shoe leather and sunscreen. It will require the support of bloggers and their readers around the country. It will require MONEY.

  We have a candidate that has the momentum, that can and will win. He has the organization to make it happen. Wherever you are, if you have a pair, take action. If you don't, grow 'em, buy 'em, rent 'em, borrow 'em or just pretend and take action.

  by Dumbo Stalker on Mon Jun 13, 2005 at 03:34:50 PM PDT

•  Wednesday morning headline

  Cincinnati Enquirer:
  Jean Schmidt wins a slugfest; Paul Hackett in a landslide.
  Paul Hackett last night and again this morning challenged Mrs. Schmidt to seven town meetings in the seven counties of the district, with a different topic to be discussed at each meeting. "I'll be there until the last person's question has been answered." He suggested that this election should be about "solutions, not slogans."

  by Dumbo Stalker on Wed Jun 15, 2005 at 05:37:28 AM PDT