http://www.suffolk.edu/suprc/pres/jan22_04/update.html
The following is the top down percentage results of the two-day rolling average (400) with a +- of 4.90% at a 95% confidence level (taken Tuesday, January 20th and Wednesday, January 21st.):
# John Kerry 27%
# Howard Dean 19%
# Wesley Clark 15%
# John Edwards 7%
# Joe Lieberman 6%
# Dennis Kucinich 1%
# Undecided/REF 25%
MANCHESTER, NH - John Kerry vaulted ahead of Howard Dean in the nation's first Democratic Primary prize. Kerry (27%) led Dean (19%) while General Wesley Clark remained at 15% in the two day rolling average of 400 likely Democratic voters taken January 20 - 21.
"John Kerry stormed ahead of Howard Dean in last night's overnight polling. The previously high number of undecided voters have begun to break Kerry's way," said David Paleologos, political pollster and Director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.
In calls made just on Wednesday, January 21st, Kerry actually led Dean by a whopping 30%-17% margin. The margin of error on the one-day 200 interview sub sample is +
- 6.93%.
Kerry's lead was fueled by women, who courted the Massachusetts Senator with a 14% lead over Dean while veteran households marched Kerry to an 11% lead. In addition, Kerry continued to show regional strength in Hillsborough county - the state's largest county - as well as among middle-age voters.
Dean's poor showing is being held up by his best demographics including young voters ages 18-34 years, union households, men, and continued relative strength in the Central Region. However, the West/North Region containing the five counties closest to the Vermont border fell to Kerry in this most recent study. The West/North Region had been a consistent regional core of Dean strength in nine consecutive polls dating back to March of 2003.
Although Wesley Clark trailed in every demographic category, he was closest to Kerry in the Central Region and among independents and men.
"At this point, Thursday's televised candidate's debate is do or die for Dean and Clark. If they go after Kerry, their attacks must be surgical," Paleologos said. "Too much negativity by the top three contenders could open the door for Sen. John Edwards, who surged in Iowa late on a positive message."