SUSA blew the Iowa results, so their track record
this cycle is so far 0-1. But for what it's worth, here are their last set of New Hampshire
numbers (PDF).
1/25 1/24 1/23
Kerry 33 28 30
Dean 28 24 25
Edwards 14 13 13
Clark 13 16 12
Lieberman 11 12 7
Note, this isn't a tracking poll. Each one of those days is a full-fledged poll, with a MoE of 4.6%.
Amongst "certain voters", Kerry leads 33-28. Amongst "probable" votes, Kerry leads 27-15. Amongst male voters, Kerry leads 35-24. Amongst females, Kerry's lead is 30-28. Amongst "conservative" voters, Kerry leads 31-11, while "liberal voters" go to Dean 41-27. Independents break 28-22 in favor of Kerry.
Dean needed the Zogby and this SUSA poll to fuel the media "Dean is closing in fast" theme. Drudge has it splashed all over his homepage. AP and Reuters both have big headline stories with the Zogby poll.
And whether it's based on reality or not is beside the point. Most polls show Kerry comfortably ahead. Zogby and SUSA -- two of the least respected polls in polling circles (unfairly so, imho) -- may very well be outliers. But given the media need for ratings, creating an exciting NH photo finish is imperative. And it may be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Demoralized Dean supporters are newly energized. Voters who tuned out Dean after the Rebel Yell may now be willing to give him another look.
Lost in the shuffle is Clark, who is suddenly NH's forgotten man (despite the crowds he is still attacting). Edwards, by all measures, is drawing a great deal of new attention. His "two Americas" is resonating something fierce. Lieberman is gasping for survival -- always a compelling media line. (Kind of like slowing down to gawk at a roadside accident.) Kerry is the front-runner. So where does that leave Clark?