Lately, we've been reading a host of diaries that paint a very rosy picture of our prospects for 2006 and 2008. Every day it seems we read of another poll that shows us ahead in this or that state, or we read of another Republican incumbent who looks increasingly vulnerable. And, of course, we read of Bush's poor poll ratings, Bolton's agonies and DeLay's numbered days. All of which may very well be true.
But having been burned by similar music in 2002 and 2004 (and having died a hundred deaths last Election Day thanks to those wonderful exit polls), I'm feeling a bit wary about all this new optimism. I feel more than a little like Charlie Brown getting ready to kick Lucy's football.
The
April jobs report should serve as a warning to all of us that it will not be easy to defeat the Republicans. By anyone's definition, this was an excellent report.
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 274,000, seasonally adjusted,
to 133.3 million in April. This followed gains of 300,000 in February and
146,000 in March (as revised). In April, notable increases occurred in
several industries, including construction, mining, food services, and
health care.
The economy has now created more than 700,000 jobs in the last three months. We're on pace for the best jobs growth year since Bush took office.
We all know that the economy tends to trump all other issues and that a good economy can excuse a world of incumbent errors. This is not to say that the Republicans can't be beaten. But it does mean that our task will be that much harder and the work required of us that much greater.
Now the economy can, of course, change radically between now and 2008. And, if it does, we will be the beneficiaries no matter how good or bad a campaign we run (and thank God for that given some of our recent campaigns and candidates). But we can't assume that the Republican tree will fall from its own weakness. We need to be prepared to take some mighty swings at the old tree to knock it down. This April jobs report should serve as a wake-up call to all of us to forget the rosy polls and to roll up our sleeves for the job ahead.