Man, look at this graph. It's like political pornography.
Charles Franklin, a professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin has charted President Bush's approval ratings from all the major polls this year:
The linear trend includes "step" changes following Hurricane Katrina and after the indictment of Lewis "Scooter" Libby. The green local regression line smoothly changes to estimate the trend. Points are for all public polls from all polling organizations.
More delicious morsels after the jump...
Based on polls through 11/9, I estimate the Katrina effect as -1.26% and the post-indictment shock to approval as an additional -1.88%. The post-indictment effects include effects of other events of the same week, namely the 2000th U.S. troop death in Iraq, the withdrawal of the Harriet Miers Supreme Court nomination, and the subsequent nomination of Judge Samuel Alito. It is not possible to statistically separate the effects of each of these events, so the -1.88% estimate should NOT be interpreted as the effect of the Libby indictment alone but rather the cummulative impact of all these events.
Just when you thought your Schandefreude couldn't be anymore aroused, Professor Franklin puts W's free fall in historical perspective by comparing the trajectory of his popularity with every President since FDR:
This graph shows all presidential approval readings by the Gallup organization since Roosevelt. Gallup's long series and consistent question wording provide a useful historical comparison across Presidents.
The data are freely available at the Roper Center web site at the University of Connecticut here.
The data are graphed here in exactly the same perspective across all presidents. This means that trends will look the same regardless of whether a president served two terms, one term or only part of a term. Visual comparisons of trends will be valid because of this constant perspective.
For example, compare the decline prior to the 1992 elections in President George H. W. Bush's approval with those of President George W. Bush. The elder Bush is a clear example of "free fall", the sharpest and largest approval drop since President Nixon's in 1973-74. President George W. Bush's decline more closely resembles the long-term decline of Jimmy Carter's approval than it does the free fall of either the elder President Bush or President Nixon.
Oh my! While all you guys digest the Professor's luscious work, allow me some private time to enjoy the beauty more fully. Enjoy.