My unscientific analysis of the election shows that Kerry and Edwards will win this election going away. Bush can't win. As the numbers roll in, and as Moore's DVD cues for rotation in the next few weeks, the haze is beginning to clear.
First, the Bush camp doesn't really have anything more to smear Kerry with. The Swift Boat campaign has played out, and, combined with CBS getting caught with the forged memos, people are now sick of smear altogether. I don't expect any more smear campaigns to influence the election, from either side.
Second, as Iraq quagmire and draft talk ramp up in the next month, independent and nonpartisan sentiment (i.e. the non-rabid moderates and Republicans) will swing against Bush, especially in light of his overall economic, environmental, and ideological record. And consider all Gallup 'likely voter' assumptions to be way off - turnout is going to make this election less close than it would appear, and this will work massively in favor of the challenger and against the incumbent (if GOTV and grassroots efforts keep up steam).
Turnout is really the key to the election. Practically nothing is going right for Bush. One honestly has a hard time coming up with anything he has done right, other than give a good sermon after 9-11, meet emergency workers in New York, and manage to depose the Taliban effectively and with little casualties, and without pissing the world off in the process.
Since then, however, Bush's record is one of manifest and abject failure. The invasion of Afghanistan was largely given second-shrift in the new focus on Iraq, and we failed to devote our money and manpower to capturing and/or killing Taliban and Al Qaeda forces.
Rather than stabilizing Afghanistan, continuing to hunt down Taliban and Al Qaeda forces, and capitalizing on world opinion and sympathy massively in our favor by putting immense pressure on Iran and Pakistan to cooperate with these efforts, we dropped the ball and started up the tragedy of Iraq.
The end result has divided the world, tanked our brand and reputation lower than at any period in our history (a remarkable feat considering our popularity in the aftermath of 9-11), as we presented forged, plagiarized, and now known to be largely false evidence before the UN to justify the invasion, divided America through a campaign of lies, distortions, exaggerations, and war propaganda, sewed chaos and turned Iraq into a possible terrorist oasis, held prisoners incommunicado and without counsel against our liberal tradition for years without filing charges (then releasing them back to their native countries without charges), and being exposed as torturers and rapists in our detention facilities in Iraq and around the globe.
Meanwhile, through all of this, environmental regulations and protections were gutted, special interests were given full rein to rewrite regulations of all kinds in their own interests, a record deficit was racked up in record time after the Clinton surplus, and, largely as a result of the invasion of Iraq, oil prices have climbed to record highs, thus making all operations, especially military, that much more expensive, not to mention everyday life for Americans and people around the globe.
It's often mentioned that the cost of the invasion of Iraq is around $200 billion at this point, but it's actually much higher than that. When you factor in the economic losses due to the plunge in reputability of our brand America, the money we will have to spend in bonuses and increased benefits to our volunteer military and reserves to keep up recruitment and retain soldiers coming up on the end of their enlistments, the added costs of the spiraling rise in oil prices which puts a surcharge on nearly every transaction based upon a global economy predicated upon petroleum-based shipping and transportation, and the money we will have to spend in the future to maintain a presence in Iraq for only the next several years, the cost of this war will easily exceed $1 trillion dollars (cue Dr. Evil maniacal laugh).
While we've run up this insane amount of expenditures, capital, and human lives in Iraq, including leaving depleted uranium all over the place, we have not given enough focus on securing the homeland, in terms of port security, border surveillance (including radioactive), and investing heavily in first-responders and emergency workers in the case of an attack that manages to penetrate our defenses.
Instead, we've spent like wild demons on Iraq, while giving tax cuts to the rich to spur the economy, while the economy remains stagnant, as the rich don't necessarily reinvest their tax savings in enterprises and investments here at home, but perhaps take it out to global markets, while health costs continue to spiral up, those without health insurance increase in numbers, the unemployed and those giving up on looking for work hitting epic and abysmal numbers without any direct relief from the government, and the best the Republican Party can do in trying to retain power is continue to exaggerate their claims for the war in Iraq while pushing wedge issues, smear, and divisive propaganda.
The end, end result of this is that the world, the American people, and even varying agencies and institutions of our own government are divided in unprecedented ways.
It's all quite stupendous, considering the unprecedented coming together of America and the world in the aftermath of 9-11.
George Bush may go down in history as the worst president in history, considering this record.
In conclusion, whether people consciously realize all of this, turnout in November is going to be way up in November, and not by those voting for the status quo. It never works that way. The people who are pissed and worried are going to be the ones who motivate others who are pissed, worried, or often uninterested to get out and vote this time. Against the incumbent, and for the strongest challenger.
The unconscious bias is that things are not going right, at home or abroad, and the people need change. Staying the course is not the best option if the ship is sinking.
Remember those hundreds of thousands in the streets of New York, Chicago, and other cities, when the war was kicking up? That's the grassroots, the kind of active people who will motivate greater turnout.
Remember the competing demonstrations promoted by the Right wing radio shows? The ones that were lucky to get a few hundred people? I do. And that's why I know that you can preach smear, hatred, and divisiveness all you want on TV and radio, but when it comes to real turnout, for passionate embrace of one's beliefs, we know what really works, and unless Bush is up by a dozen points in Gallup's 'likely voter' poll, he is going to lose.
And, even if he is, in the South he will likely draw some big numbers in his favor, so national polls truly are meaningless this time around. Kerry is competing in the important swing states, even or slightly behind if not leading, and this with assumptions on turnout that I don't believe to be based upon adequate metrics.
Kerry just needs to keep hammering on Iraq, because that's what will drive people to the polls. Talk frankly about the draft. Ridicule Bush's strategy and success in the war on terror, claiming to be the better man for the job, smarter and more creative, including chasing down financiers of terror just like he took down the mob financiers in the BCCCI scandal, while in every other area domestically promoting and promising change, just like Clinton did in 1992.
The only thing that saves the election for Bush is the capture and/or killing of Bin Laden, and here's one guy who predicts that rumours of Bin Laden's killing come as one possible October Surprise, from Pakistani sources, that will prove unsubstantiated after the election is over.