Who done it?

Yesterday, as I pointed out here, it seems more than probable that Novak learned of Valerie Plame from someone on AF-1 during the flight to Africa. The question is: Who got that information from AF-1 to Novak and how?

To eliminate other possible sources of his information and other leakers, consider these facts:

1. We now know that the State Department memo contained highly sensitive information about Ms. Plame, marked "no foreign eyes". The handling of documents of this nature normally entails significant efforts to guarantee their integrity during transportation. They are not generally faxed, but hand delivered to the authorized recipient. It would then seem unlikely that the document was seen by unauthorized personnel during its trip from Richard Armitage to Colin Powell. Hence, we can assume, with a certain degree of confidence, that the State Department memo was not seen on July 7, 2003 by persons who were not aboard AF-1. Both Karl Rove and Scooter Libby have testified that they never saw the document before it was shown to them during their grand jury testimony. Those statements are believable. However, that does not mean that they were not apprised of the contents on July 7.

2. Ari Fleischer has testified that he did not see the contents of the State Department memo. In fairness, a fellow passenger on AF-1 has testified to seeing Fleischer handling the document. But, for the sake of argument, let's assume that Fleischer did not perjure himself. He was on his way out, leaving White House employment July 14, so why would he want to get involved in something as potentially messy as what has transpired?

3. Dan Bartlett has testified that he did not know who Valerie Plame was. Had he read the State Department memo, that would make him a perjurer. So, let's give him the benefit of the doubt, too.

4. Novak's information, as told to a friend of Wilson's on July 8, contains a radioactive marker that leads back to the State Department memo, which is the only known source for the false claim that Ms. Plame sent her husband to Niger.

Who was on the flight, besides Fleischer and Bartlett? The main actors are Bush, Powell and probably Rice, who people seem to think was there, but I have not been able to confirm that information. The flight list does not seem to be readily available and the photos of the Africa trip that I have seen do not show her.

Would Colin Powell be inclined to go after the Wilson's? Perhaps. He carried the Niger message to the UN, to his disgrace. But, he was also an outsider in the administration, according to popular wisdom and, perhaps, reluctant to participate in a smear campaign.

That leaves two people, who are very close to each other, as prime suspects for initiating the smear campaign and being primarily responsable for divulging sensitive information - President George W. Bush and National Security Advisor Condoleeza Rice. Of these two, the most likely suspect, based on an analysis of hierarchical reporting lines is Bush. Why?

1. Bush could call Rove directly and give him the information about Ms. Plame and ask for advice on how to use it.

2. Bush could then call Cheney and, on Rove's advice, tell Cheney to put his Chief of Staff, Scooter Libby, on a task force with Rove to get the information into the press.

3. Cheney tells Libby to work with Rove.

Thus, we arrive at a conspiracy involving at least Bush, Cheney, Rove and Libby. There are possibly other co-conspirators, such as Judith Miller, but this foursome is enough to bring down the government.

•  That's the thing...

  But the INR report WAS faxed to AF1, via the White House operations center, and not through the regular secure State Department channels.

  Not this on the dkospedia July 7th, 2003 entry in the Plame Leak timeline:
  

  • Carl Ford, orders the copy of the original memo, along with the analyst's notes about that meeting, be sent to Powell. Ordinarily, the memo would have been transmitted directly to Powell over the State Department's secure communications lines. But because Powell was traveling with Bush aboard Air Force One, the memo is transmitted via the White House operations center.
  • Someone on Air Force One, because both documents were classified by regulations, signs for receiving the memo and breifing note transmission from the White House operations center. Once someone signed for them, the document could be passed around freely on the plane among senior officials who have security clearances.
  • Press Secretary Ari Fleischer, at some point during the flight sees the INR memo aboard Air Force One.

  Mitch Gore

  Wanna win in '08...?

  Put your money where your mouth is.

  by Lestatdelc on Thu Jul 28, 2005 at 01:13:37 AM PDT

  •  WH operations center?

    Who is likely to be there? Is the transmission routed electronically through the operations center, or does the information stop there for retransmission to AF-1?

    The question is important, since it could mean the difference between whether or not the chain of integrity is maintained up to AF-1.

    Ari, in the NT Times article I linked above, claims not to have read the memo. Do we believe him? Would he be a prime mover in the conspiracy to out Plame?

    If the memo were read in the WH operations center, would someone there have acted independently of the presidential entourage on AF-1 to initiate the outting?

    Thanks for your input, Mitch.

    by unclejohn on Thu Jul 28, 2005 at 01:31:40 AM PDT

    •  Operations Center

      I have no familiarity with the WH operations center, and am only going on general principles.

      But I strongly doubt that the White House operations center is the sort of place where high-ranking staff stand around munching doughnuts and gossiping.
      First of all, this is set up to handle secret communcations with the president -- including transmissions to AF1.
      Second, you're talking about a building with hudreds of workers in it -- it's not your typical three-man office.

      by Frank Palmer on Thu Jul 28, 2005 at 07:25:26 AM PDT

•  Correction - Condi was definitely on AF-1

  Many thanks to the author of this diary, who makes a brilliant analysis and cleared up my doubts about Ms. Rice's whereabouts on July 7,2003.

  by unclejohn on Thu Jul 28, 2005 at 01:21:57 AM PDT

•  More than the memo

  Novak got info from more thatn the memo, if he got anything from the memo at all.

  The memo referred to Valerie Plame Wilson as Wilson; Novak referred to Plame. I keep harping on this distinction of names for the same person.

  Novak said that he got the name from the CIA.

  Presumably, Novak testified under oath to the grand jury. Presumably, his testimony will lead to indictments and testimony at the trial.

  by Frank Palmer on Thu Jul 28, 2005 at 07:18:42 AM PDT