I call it that because I think it has about a 30% chance of being true.
What's the deal with Kerry's surge in Iowa? Everyone is noting the phenomena, from Zogby to this guy:
"I'm actually on the ground here in Iowa, volunteering in the Dean campaign. As such, without compromising my (genuine) commitment to Dean I can tell you what everyone here on the ground knows. In the last week, Kerry and Edwards gained ground.
Lots of upper-income families- the people who have nice houses when you knock on the door- or people attracted to the Kennedy style glamour are breaking for Edwards. Phone calling I've done on lists of registered voters confirms. As one expects, veterans are breaking for Kerry. There's only a bare whisper of Clark. Dean support is growing, and Gephardht seems flat. Conversations within the grass-roots Dean movement seem to confirm the above, though of course we are still confident Dean is leading especially with him coming out aggressively on Iraq again."
source: http://www.danieldrezner.com/archives/001014.html#008164
A honest report? Or a talking point? In other words:
Is Trippi having Dean supporters talk up Kerry's rise - and even encouraging some of them to "report" that they are switching from Dean to Kerry?
I obviously have no proof for this suspicion, but if it's right it could be a brilliant strategy. It would at once:
- Fire up Dean's ground army
- Increase the surprise factor when Dean pulls out a big win
- Confuse and dishearten the campaign of Dean's true rival in the caucus, Dick Gephardt.
But as I said, I think right now there is only a 30% chance of it being true.