Are YOU ready for disaster? Part 5 of 5 - Conclusion

(From the diaries -- Plutonium Page. GREAT series by AlphaGeek.)

"Good luck happens when preparedness meets opportunity" - Anonymous

The key to emergency preparedness is an accurate understanding of the risks and challenges you face.  Underestimating your risks leads to complacency and failure to prepare effectively.  Overestimating your risks leads to the Armageddon Fallacy and failure to prepare effectively (if at all) because of the enormity of the imagined potential disaster.

The harsh truth is that the calculus of survival is not entirely within our control.  No matter how many risks we address, there are situations which are simply unforeseeable or unaddressable.  However, by taking effective action to minimize the likely risks, we can greatly increase our chances of survival in an emergency or disaster situation.

This Diary marks the conclusion of this series.

This is the fifth and final installment in a series of Diaries on personal disaster preparedness.  Your humble correspondent is a Silicon Valley technical executive with both professional and personal experience in risk assessment and disaster-readiness planning.  Links to reference materials, including planning guides and reference information, will be posted at the end of this Diary, the final installment in this series.

WARNING: This Diary series discusses a wide range of disaster-related subjects in a straightforward, honest fashion.  Some people may experience a strong emotional reaction to reading about or discussing situations which are normally avoided in polite conversation.  You have been warned.

Series Index: Are YOU ready for disaster?

1. Assess your risks!
   
2. Plan to survive! (part A)
   
3. Plan to survive! (part B)
   
4. Emergency gear and supplies
   
5. Material preparations continued; Conclusion

In this final installment, we will complete our discussion of material preparations, discuss personal security, and bring this series to a conclusion.

Material Preparations (continued from Part 4)

In Part 4 of this series, we covered the majority of the material preparations required to support most emergency preparedness plans.  Today's installment will cover the remaining material-prep topics, as well as personal and group security in various situations.

Shelter

While we have discussed Environment in some detail (see Part 4), shelter deserves a category of its own.  Your correspondent confesses that it would have been more logical to cover Shelter immediately before Environment; this will be corrected in any derivative versions of this work.

Your preparedness plan MUST address the following scenarios:

1. Your primary residence is habitable; what materials and tools do you have on hand to keep it that way if it is damaged?
   
2. You are forced by circumstances to spend a night outdoors but in the vicinity of your home, e.g. in a yard or park; what shelter can you provide for your household?
   
3. Your home or neighborhood is not habitable and you decide to evacuate by car; do you have a list of places you could stay along the likely escape routes from your region, at various distances?

EMERGENCY REPAIRS

In your correspondent's opinion, being prepared to make minor emergency repairs to your home is one of the least expensive and most effective things you can do to prepare for the aftermath of a disaster.  While specific techniques vary depending on construction, the type of damage likely in your situation, and so forth, there are certain common materials which are incredibly useful for tactical repairs during or after a crisis:

Tools & Fasteners:

• Basic toolkit; see the Allied 39031 kit as an example.  Even if you already have a set of tools, consider setting aside one of these self-contained all-in-one kits for emergencies.
  
• Utility knife with spare blades (even if kit has one)
  
• Hand drill, e.g. Fiskars Hand Drill
  
• Drill & screwdrive bit set, e.g. Black & Decker 109pc
  
• Nails
  
• 3" drywall screws
  
• 2" wood screws
  
• 2 large rolls duct tape

Materials:

• 1 roll plastic sheeting ("tarp on a roll") in thickest gauge available
  
• 2x2 stock in 6' or 8' lengths
  
• 2x4 stock in 6' or 8' lengths
  
• Plywood sheeting suitable to your needs

EMERGENCY OUTDOOR SHELTER

Plan A: Acquire a tent large enough to sleep everyone in your household.  This is dual-use equipment, and the author highly commends the practice of taking your family camping to build character and self-sufficiency in situations outside normal routine.

Plan B: Use plastic tarpaulins and/or plastic sheeting to construct an improvised shelter.  This is not as easy as it sounds.  Seriously, a tent is a much better choice.  If you must go this route, use features of your environment as an integral part of your shelter, i.e. use the back corner of your wooden-fenced yard as the starting point.  Having suitable materials will make this task much easier:

• grommeted, opaque woven-plastic tarps
  
• anchor stakes
  
• nylon cord

EVACUATION SHELTER POINTS

A critical element of any evacuation plan is knowing where you're going.  Spending a few minutes identifying and noting likely shelter locations along your probable evacuation routes now means much less stress when a crisis occurs.  Shelter locations may include hotels, motels, campgrounds, highway rest areas, and houses of friends or family.  Even if you are fortunate enough to have a second home (e.g. a vacation cabin) you must still have a plan in case your alternate location is unreachable.

Be sure to record all relevant information for your identified shelter points in your disaster plan; for hotel/motel sites, record both the local phone number and the national reservation number(s).  Also consider your means of payment for accomodations.  A credit card will be required to secure a phone reservation, and you do NOT want to be caught without a reservation when you arrive at the hotel.

Finally, the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina has made it obvious that everyone in a region at risk of natural disaster (e.g. virtually all of us) should consider where we could take refuge without ruining our family finances.  Staying in a motel is neither cheap nor pleasant over the long haul, and counting on government funding to offset these costs is foolhardy.

Medical (first aid/trauma)

In normal, everyday life, few injuries are truly life-threatening.  In a disaster, minor cuts can become infected, and if left unchecked the infection can cause the loss of a limb or even cost the life of the patient.  The key, in either situation, is early, effective treatment.

The reader should keep in mind that the medical materials recommended for dealing with first-aid or trauma situations are not intended to equip the reader to go forth and treat the wounded masses.  Carefully distinguish between supplies intended to preserve and ensure the health of your household, versus those which could be used to help others.  Your correspondent, for example, maintains a personal first-aid kit separate from the supplies in his disaster-response gear.

A good starting point for first-aid preparedness is a Red Cross first-aid/CPR class.  Similar classes are offered in affiliation with CERT programs (as discussed previously).  Practical, hands-on training is a must, as you learn the material in ways that are simply not possible when studying written or online materia.

It is far easier to deal with injuries if you're properly equipped.  For most people, the easiest road to success is to start with a prepared kit, and then add tools and supplies to complete the package.  Recommendations:

• The REI Backpacker First Aid Kit is as close to a perfect base kit as your author has found; at the time of this writing, the REI Outlet has the 2004 kits on clearance
  
• 1 bottle Povidone-iodine disinfectant solution (Betadine) sealed in zip-lock bag
  
• 1 tube Neosporin + Pain Relief ointment
  
• Nexcare Liquid Bandage Drops -- see below for additional comments on this important item
  
• 1 box Telfa non-stick pads, repackaged into 1-2 zip-lock bags
  
• 1 roll of one-inch-wide cloth First Aid Tape
  
• Blue Nitrile EMS gloves, stored 10 per ziplock sandwich bag
  
• CPR mask -- a MUST for administering CPR without risk of infectious disease
  
• EMT shears for accessing wounds in clothed areas
  
• Protective eyewear with splash resistance
  
• Filter mask(s)
  
• 1 white-LED micro flashlight such as PT Pulsar
  
• 1 blue-LED micro flashlight (as above, but in blue) for spotting blood
  
• 1 bottle aspirin
  
• 1 bottle ibuprofen
  
• 1 bottle acetaminophen
  
• 1 bottle liquid Benadryl with means for dispensing measured doses
  
• 1 package Pepto-Bismol tablets (not liquid)
  
• 1 package anti-diarrheal tablets

A note regarding one very special item in the list above: in your correspondent's estimation, one of the most underreported recent developments in wound care is the adaptation of surgical superglue (cyanoacrylate, or "CA" glue) to the consumer market.  A wound sealed with sterile CA glue, such as the Nexcare product linked above, will stop bleeding immediately, and generally will not require a separate bandage.

If you have first-aid kits already, add the Nexcare product to all of them at your earliest convenience.  It's that good.  Don't bother with the other products that require you to use special activator swabs, go for the Nexcare product.  Your correspondent recently sliced down the dorsal surface of his left index finger from the second knuckle to the fingernail with the tip of an extremely sharp knife.  Conventional wound care products were mediocre at stopping the bleeding, and did nothing for the pain.  The Nexcare drops not only took care of the bleeding, but by sealing together and immobilizing the edges of the cut, stopped the pain from the exposed nerve endings.

UPDATE: Two other emerging technologies which are revolutionizing trauma wound management are QuikClot (currently available only to emergency services professionals) and SEAL-ON/m*doc, which is available over-the-counter. The author can personally attest to the efficacy of SEAL-ON products for stopping severe nosebleeds and scalp wounds.

If you are interested in preparing to deal with traumatic injury, such as might reasonably be expected in the aftermath of a natural disaster, please seek appropriate training.  Reference books, while useful, can be difficult to employ effectively in stressful situations.  

If you do decide to pick up a book on emergency medicine, keep in mind that in a disaster the conventional strategy of "keep the victim alive until the cavalry arrives" does not apply.  You must assume that any lifesaving measures must be capable of sustaining the victim without immediate medical attention by a pro, and plan accordingly.  Unfortunately, this sometimes means that the victim will die.  If you take a CERT class, you will learn more about how to assess a victim's chances of survival, a process called triage.

Medical (sustaining care)

At a minimum, every copy of your preparedness plan should include a detailed list of prescribed medications for each member of your household, as well as contact information for the prescribing physician.

A separate sheet should detail all known food, drug, and environmental allergies for each individual.

If appropriate, request your prescribing physician(s) to provide prescription forms for an emergency supply of maintenance medications.  Pay attention to any must-be-filled-by policies in force in your state.  Note that certain medications are prescribed on forms which are only valid for 14 days after the date written on the form by the doctor.

Finally, be sure to keep an emergency supply of any equipment required to administer required medications, as well as anything needed to safely dispose of waste generated in the process.

Medication management

It is strongly suggested that, to the extent that it is practical, a 14-day supply of all required medication(s) should be stored in the home preparedness kit.  It is further suggested that a 5-day supply be stored in the vehicle and/or work preparedness kits.  When storing medication, which has a limited shelf life, keeping track of expiration dates is key.  Expired medication can be worse than useless, it can be dangerous.

Your correspondent uses the following plan to manage medication stored in emergency kits.  No doubt, commenters will come up with many inventive and workable alternative plans for meeting this need.  This is presented as an example of a plan that works, not as The One True Way.

Separate and distinct from the prescribed-medication list referenced above is a medication log kept in each kit with stored medication.  This log is kept in pencil on a designated page in a Rite in the Rain spiral notebook, which is also used as an equipment log.  A pencil is affixed to the notebook on a cord long enough to permit writing.

Each medication is logged in using the notebook, including quantity, expiration date, and do-not-use-after date if different from the expiration date.  This includes not only the prescription meds, but also the over-the-counter meds and supplies with limited shelf lives.

Whenever possible, prescription meds are stored in an original bottle with the actual expiration date written on the top of the bottle.  (It's usually the case that the meds in the bottle are newer than the label would indicate.)

Knives and Multi-tools

Your humble correspondent must disclose up front that he has been carrying a Leatherman pocket tool daily for over a decade, after having tried various other types and brands of implement.  He would no more be caught without his Leatherman Charge XTi than without his cellphone or wallet.

It is certainly open for debate whether it is useful, in most emergency situations, to have a fixed-blade knife as part of your preparedness kit.  In the author's opinion, a traditional fixed-blade knife is more of a liability than an asset due to its bulk, its intimidating appearance but limited usefulness in personal defense, and its lack of flexibility compared to a multi-tool.

At a minimum, every emergency kit (home, vehicle, work) should contain a cheap, lower-quality multitool such as this one.  While your correspondent is somewhat hesitant to recommend such a cheaply made piece of equipment, the fact is that a low-quality tool beats the hell out of having no tool at all.

However, if you have any choice at all, invest in a higher quality tool, from a name-brand manufacturer.  The author's Leatherman Super Tool was recently refurbished for free by the factory after 8 years of daily use, and is now oiled and stored in a vehicle preparedness kit.  Other brands of multi-tool, notably Gerber, are known for similar levels of durability and longevity in service.

If you are going to spend a few dollars on a multi-tool, a very important safety feature is having locking blades and tools.  Your author can attest, from painful personal experience, that having a razor-sharp blade suddenly snap shut on your fingers when applying heavy pressure to the knife is a Very Bad Thing.

Kits, storage, and go-packs, oh my!

While we have discussed certain approaches to organizing and storing equipment along the way, it's time to pull together all the various material preparations you may choose to include in your plans.

Kits

As has been mentioned throughout this series, you should consider creating the following preparedness kits with materials relevant to the risks you face:

• 3-day vehicle kit for each vehicle in the family
  
• 3-day work kit for each person who works outside the home
  
• 14-day comprehensive home kit, with a subset of that kit suitable for adaptation into a 3-day travel kit

Recommendations for packing items into kits:

1. Seal all individual items in durable waterproof packaging, such as heavy-gauge ziplock freezer bags
   
2. Line backpacks and utility bags with heavy-gauge plastic bags, e.g. those sold as 55-gallon drum liners (extremely tough); when the bag is packed, press out excess air, roll the end of the bag over at least three times, and secure with a velcro strap or similar fastener
   
3. Group items by function, and pack items likely to be used together into the same bag or container.
   
4. For critical items such as flashlights, can openers, and so forth, pack spares and alternate items in separate locations.

A small nylon backpack works well for work and vehicle kits.  A second bag may be required for clothing and footwear; be sure you can carry both bags comfortably.

Home preparedness kits should be assembled into containers, each of which must be labeled with its contents.  Be sure not to over-pack individual containers to the point that they are difficult or impossible to lift.  The author is a big fan of Rubbermaid Action Packer containers, as they are lockable, watertight, stackable, and extremely durable.

Storage

Having access to your preparedness kits, especially your home kit, is a critical goal you must take into consideration when planning where to store your gear.  Residents in earthquake territory have different needs than those in, say, blizzard country.

First, consider safety.  If you are storing any significant quantity of emergency fuel, you need to store it outside your home and preferably away from any exterior walls.

Next, consider the risks to the safety and accessibility of your preparedness materials.  If you live in an area at risk of earthquakes, for example, your preparedness kit won't be of much use stored under the stairs if your house is too dangerous to enter post-quake.  Consider installing a locking outdoor storage container such as the Rubbermaid XL Deck Box, which is large enough to store a tremendous volume of gear and supplies safely away from your house.  Be sure to equip any outdoor storage containers with a waterproof outdoor combination lock.

An inexpensive alternative is to pack your home kit into wheeled trash cans.  This has the advantage of being more easily portable if you need to relocate a short distance, e.g. to a nearby park.

Go-packs

As previously mentioned, a portion of your home kit should be easily portable.  In addition to items previously discussed, your household go-pack plan should include your critical papers, such as birth certificates, loan documents, insurance docs, and so forth.  Here's the real test to see if you've done this right: if your house caught on fire and you outside with your family, your pets, and your go-pack, would you be able to begin putting your life back together?  Consider keeping backups of critical computer data in your go-pack, such as CDs containing your family's digital photographs.

Security measures for personal and group safety

Ezekiel 25:17 - according to Quentin Tarantino, that is:
"The path of the righteous man is beset on all sides by the inequities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men. Blessed is he who, in the name of charity and good will, shepherds the weak through the valley of the darkness. For he is truly his brother's keeper and the finder of lost children. [...]"

The sad truth is that during times of crisis, both the noblest and the basest parts of human nature are laid bare for all to see.  In desperate situations, people will commit acts unthinkable in times of plenty.  It is prudent to plan to protect yourself, your family, and your community.

Personal security

Some of the readers of this series adhere to a philosophy of non-violence, which the author respects.  This does not preclude the use of nonlethal means of self-defense.  At a minimum, the author recommends that you include at least one large OC (pepper) defensive spray and at least one contact-type stun device with spare battery in each emergency kit.

The OC pepper spray is dual-use; it can be used to deter human harassment or assault, and it will send even the largest hungry dog running for the hills.  NOTE: OC pepper spray (or any chemical spray, for that matter) should NEVER be discharged in an enclosed space unless life is at stake. The electric stun device is easily concealable, and at a minimum each female member of your group old enough to handle one safely should have one.

Group and site security

Your preparedness both increases your chances of survival and puts you at risk.  In a situation where resources are scarce, people who have not prepared to deal with that situation may be driven to desperate acts.

Your first line of defense is to maintain a low profile.  Running a generator 24x7, powering bright lights, and cranking up the music and TV will draw attention.  Your goal should be to minimize your profile, and give no hint that your household is any better off than the surrounding community.  Be cautious in discussing details of your preparedness plans with anyone outside your household.  That information is on a need-to-know basis, and most people just don't need to know.

You should, however, be prepared to defend yourself, your family, and your resources against those who would do you harm.  Yes, folks, it's time to talk about guns.

Before you purchase a gun, you MUST learn how to store, handle, and use one safely.  Your correspondent offers free basic firearms instruction to residents or visitors in the San Francisco Bay Area.  Introductory classes are available in most cities at indoor and outdoor ranges, gun clubs, and through various NRA programs.

After you purchase a gun, in addition to storing it safely, you MUST practice with it at least once per year.  This has the dual benefits of maintaining your familiarity with the firearm ,and verifying that the firearm remains in good working condition.

Finally, be realistic regarding the circumstances under which you might need a gun at all, much less use it against another person.  For example, the author submits that a citizen shooting someone more than 100' (30m) away calls into question (a) how much of an immediate threat that person really was, (b) how you clearly identified that person and the threat they presented, and (c) whether you were shooting without regard to anyone near or behind the target.  Just because it's a disaster zone doesn't mean the shooter won't end up explaining this to a judge and jury in the future.

= Shotguns =

If you're going to buy a single gun for defensive purposes, the author recommends a pump-action 12-gauge shotgun with an 18" barrel.  The Remington 870 Express Synthetic is the standard in this area, and at under $350 retail is very affordable. Other options to consider include the Mossberg 500 SP series, as recommended in the Comments below by soonergrunt.

However, the blast and recoil from a full-power shell in a 12-gauge shotgun can be quite startling, or even painful, for inexperienced shooters.  The author strongly recommends the use of reduced-recoil ammunition, such as Remington Express Managed-Recoil Buckshot, as well as the use of an aftermarket rubber recoil pad securely affixed to the butt of the shotgun stock.  

The addition of a sling, which can be quite inexpensive, is likewise strongly recommended.  If you have to shepherd your group on foot out of the disaster zone, you're not going to want to carry a shotgun in your hands the entire way.

Finally, a "defensive shotgun" or "introduction to shotgun" class is highly recommended for all authorized users.  Many people are surprised at the difference training makes when it comes to effectively using a gun which seems as simple and straightforward as the shotgun.

= Rifles & Carbines =

While most people are conceptually familiar with rifles because of TV and movies, few people understand the difference between a rifle and a carbine. The simple explanation: carbines are shorter than the full-size rifles, and fire bullets with less velocity and impact energy, resulting in shorter range and striking power. This is caused by the use of a shorter barrel and/or a less powerful cartridge compared to a rifle. Many carbines are chambered for pistol ammunition (specifically, revolver ammunition) rather than rifle ammo.

In keeping with the author's admonition that the maximum range for a defensive firearm is 100' or less, even in a disaster situation, a good potential alternative to the Remington 870 shotgun above is a Winchester Model 94 lever-action rifle.  Most people would instantly recognize this as a classic "cowboy rifle".

Your correspondent specifically recommends the Winchester Model 94 Trails End  in the .357 Magnum caliber.  This means that the rifle fires relatively inexpensive and plentiful .357 Magnum pistol ammunition, but at much higher velocity and energy than a pistol due to the longer barrel.  Recommended accessories include a sling and a red dot sight with spare battery.

= Handguns =

If you are unfamiliar with firearms, and intend to purchase a gun for home defense, a handgun is not necessarily the best choice.  However, in disaster situations, handguns do offer certain advantages:

• pistols can be concealed on one's person or carried in a non-obvious fashion
  
• pistols are lighter and less bulky than rifles or shotguns

When selecting a handgun, be sure to shoot it or an equivalent model before you decide to purchase.  That Casull .454 monster revolver might seem like a manly choice in the gun store, but it's useless if you're incapable of firing it without flinching.  (For the record, the author considers the Casull .454 to be ridiculously overpowered and refuses to shoot it or its giant-caliber brethren.)  

Your correspondent is comfortable with a wide range of handguns, but prefers the .40 caliber H&K USP and the .45 caliber SIGarms P220R.  His first choice for a concealable handgun is the somewhat expensive and exotic 9mm H&K P7M8, but reluctantly concedes that the SIGarms P239 and GLOCK 26/27 are more practical and affordable choices.

CONCLUSION

I hope that this series of articles has been useful to you, rather than overwhelming.  I urge you to 'eat the elephant one bite at a time', that is, to break down the process of moving into a state of preparedness into manageable steps.  Don't be self-conscious if you start off taking only modest steps towards preparedness; even that is a huge improvement over failure to prepare.

Remember, preparedness as a state of mind is at least as important as having a pile of store-bought stuff in any kind of disaster.  Always have a plan, and a backup plan in case your first plan doesn't work out.  (And, if nothing else, have a good communication plan to fall back on!)

I will be posting a couple of follow-up diaries in coming days and weeks to stimulate further discussion regarding preparedness in our homes, our communities, and our workplaces.  Please be sure to share any insights or adventures you encounter as you work developing and implementing your preparedness plans.

Thank you to all the folks who have read and recommended the Diaries in this series.

-AG

NOTE: Any links to online e-commerce sites (as opposed to manufacturer information pages) are included for informational purposes only, and should not be considered an endorsement of that site.  The author does not receive any direct or referral compensation from any manufacturer or e-commerce site mentioned in this series.

Update [2005-9-20 18:59:25 by AlphaGeek]: Added info to first-aid section, corrected explanation of carbines, added Mossberg 500 SP shotgun, edited quote attribution.

•  At last, the end of the series

  Here, for your surfing pleasure, is a small fraction of the sites I used in the preparation of this series.

  The Preparedness Center
  Quake Kare (preparedness goods)
  Nitro-Pak

  Camp-Mor
  REI
  Cabela's

  American Red Cross - Get Prepared
  FEMA: Preparedness guides and links
  California Office of Emergency Services
  DHS Ready.gov

  Enjoy!

  -AG
  

  by AlphaGeek on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 02:13:55 AM PDT

  •  Thanks SO much

    I've printed all these out and I am going over them carefully.

    Truly appreciate your time.

    by TXsharon on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 04:17:06 AM PDT

  •  Quote

    Chance only favors the prepared mind. - Louis Pasteur

    by A Rational Being on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 07:00:54 AM PDT

    •  older than that

      It was actually Blaise Pascal (1623-1662), about 200 years earlier.

      by mindgeek on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 07:34:13 AM PDT

      •  Can't find any reference on blaise

        I'm not sure the idea of "chance" was even unerdstood in Blaise's time so I'm skeptical but willing to be converted since I'm Always trying to get to the "bottom" of quotes. Can you provide a reference?

        Thanks,
        ARB

        by A Rational Being on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 07:55:12 AM PDT

        •  I Take back

          the comment on Blaise and Chance... doh! Pascal's wager....

          by A Rational Being on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 07:57:00 AM PDT

        •  Pascal and chance

          I see that a Web search turns up lots of hits for Pasteur and this quote (translated from French). It is true that he did say it in a memorable way in a speech in 1854. However, the quote is also ascribed to mathematician Blaise Pascal, who lived earlier. I cannot find a reference on line, but this does not settle the question.

          Your idea of the history of the idea of chance is colored by a common bias, that all ideas are modern. The ancients were not fools! The idea of fortune is related, and goes back thousands of years; think of the casting of lots for Jesus's clothes at the Crucifixion. Also, to quote Euripides, "Chance fights ever on the side of the prudent."

          Pascal was a founder of the study of probability; this work stemmed from his interest in gambling. His famous triangle, which is well-known to students of mathematics, has fundamental applications probability. For instance, you can use it to determine that the most probable total from rolling two dice is 7.

          Finally, I sign off with this, drawn from an excellent compilation of math quotes.

          I find that the harder I work, the more luck I seem to have. Thomas Jefferson (1743-1826)

          by mindgeek on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 09:22:30 AM PDT

          •  Heh

            Possibly one of the best off-topic threads I've ever had pop up in one of my Diaries.  :)

            Carry on, gentlefolk.

            -AG
            

            by AlphaGeek on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 09:42:56 AM PDT

        •  Pascal / Pasteur

          I am starting to wonder if the quote is indeed from Pasteur, but has gotten assigned to Pascal by mistake over time. It would be an easy error to make because Pascal did work on probability. But he was also a bit of a dreamer, and in his Penseés he writes about chance as a random thing. In contrast, Pasteur was a hardheaded sort who emphasized the experimental method.

          So I am starting to suspect that my attribution is wrong. In addition, I quail before the authority of Bartlett's Familiar Quotations!

          by mindgeek on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 11:05:40 AM PDT

          •  an educated speculation

            Pasteur could well have quoted Pascal in some speech.  They were both French, both scientists, both believing Catholics.

            by Delia on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 11:44:47 AM PDT

          •  My misspeak on chance

            I was thinking about statistics more than chance. You might enjoy the book, "Against the Gods the remarkable story of risk" by Peter Bernstein.

            Early on Pascal is written about...

            Fun read...

            ARB

            by A Rational Being on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 01:05:01 PM PDT

    •  I can only say...

      See the previous Diaries in the series.  That quote might pop up at some point.  :)

      -AG
      

      by AlphaGeek on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 08:55:57 AM PDT

  •  I missed the first 4

    definitely going to go back and read them!!!

    by SteveLCo on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 07:05:43 AM PDT

  •  Offering training and not giving contact info?

    So you give free basic gun training to people in the Bay Area, if they can find you? Perhaps you could give us a few more hints?

    (...say, your initials wouldn't be DR, would they?)

    -fred

    by Fred Fnord on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 11:56:49 AM PDT

    •  Only if you're resourceful!

      Kidding, kind of.  If you click on my pseudonym, you'll see that my email address is in my dKos profile.

      I decline comment on all questions regarding my identity.  No offense.

      -AG
      

      by AlphaGeek on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 01:10:35 PM PDT

  •  One more thing I'm surprised you didn't mention

    For me, the number one item for disaster preparedness, the one you can always have with you and which will save your bacon more often than any other thing you can have, is fitness.

    Anyone with a reasonable level of physical fitness is just better prepared for anything that comes along. If the city I live in fell down and I had to hike 20 miles out of it to get to safety, I could (depending on terrain and level of damage) probably manage it in a single day, with a 40-lb pack. If I had my bike and the terrain was suitable, I could probably manage 150 to 200 miles. If I had to portage over a bunch of wreckage, I could carry my bike without losing too much speed.

    A disaster preparedness kit is a great idea, don't get me wrong. But if I had a choice between having a kit and being completely out of shape (which I certainly have been at some times in my life) and being in good shape and stranded without anything except my wallet and my keys, I'd choose the latter instantly.

    -fred

    by Fred Fnord on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 01:05:07 PM PDT

    •  Fitness

      Good point, but I felt that fitness was somewhat outside the scope of the Diary series.  I probably should have mentioned it, but I figure people will figure out for themselves that being physically fit is something they need to commit to over the long term.

      Perhaps I'm just being overly cynical, but I doubt that an exhortation from me in the context of emergency preparedness is going to be the lightning bolt that gets someone off the couch and exercising daily for the rest of his/her life.

      -AG
      

      by AlphaGeek on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 01:46:44 PM PDT

      •  Even couch potatoes

        can and should learn to swim!  (In fact for many heavier people it is an ideal exercise because of the lack of stress on bones and joints.) And it surely comes in handy when everything is flooded-even if you can wade, being able to swim gives one confidence.  

        by barbwires on Thu Sep 22, 2005 at 08:24:27 PM PDT

•  Thanks for taking the time

  Invaluable information. Your approach regarding security is especially spot on.

  by grimc on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 02:33:08 AM PDT

•  muchas gracias

  Very much recommended.  I think I might need to make a trip to the store to get some of this stuff... after I get over the hefty price I spent on dental care and healthcare this week (several thou... enough to make me want to move to the UK)

  by OrangeClouds115 on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 02:57:55 AM PDT

  •  Don't do it

    I've lived there with national health.  Health care is free and it's worth every cent you take from your pocket.

    However, the private health care is pretty good.

    For instance, for my wife to get a scan for an ulcer in 1991:

    National Health:  7 weeks
    Private Health: 2 days

    To elaborate:

    After waiting 3 weeks for a national health appointment, we received a letter specifying a date four weeks in the future - total 7 weeks.  Needless to say, I was not pleased.  Since I also had private coverage, I contacted Clemantine Churchill Hospital (outside London), they saw my wife the next day and did the test the following day.  7 weeks vs 2 days.

    Also I used to live in New Hampshire.  I had Canadian friends who didn't want US citizenship, but didn't plan to go back to Canada either.   Their reason, "National Health care can kill you".

    It may have cost you here, but you still had teeth when you were treated.

    by bitvector on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 09:31:51 AM PDT

    •  not to threadjack but

      bitvector, here in the rural United States, even though I have good insurance and am prepared to pay cash, any time I can get a doctor's appointment within 7 weeks (unless I am actively convulsing in said doctor's waiting room) is a success.

      by elfling on Wed Sep 21, 2005 at 11:43:35 AM PDT

•  Superglue

  It's worth noting that liquid bandaids are not particularly recommended for deep puncture wounds, although managing to seal one with superglue would certainly be preferable to, say, bleeding to death (although it's hard to think of a circumstance where those would be the only two options).

  Of course, surgical superglue also has the advantage of doubling as, well, superglue, should the need arise (but then, bandaids can double as tape, too).
  

  by Ray Radlein on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 03:30:55 AM PDT

  •  Don't rely on off the shelf...

    Off the shelf super-glue can be nasty stuff.  Don't consider throwing a tube of KrazyGlue in your first aid kit.  It probably beats the alternative of bleeding to death, though.

    by pshaw on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 06:53:40 AM PDT

•  Very Nice but...

  Our Personal experience is that no matter how much you prepare. You are never prepared when it hits the fan. That's because it' those pesky little things like the Imp of the Perverse who loves make a joke of the silly things humanity does.

  Here's the guidelines We follow. (We are still alive so We have survived so far. It's sort of a daily thing with Us. Sigh!)

  1. If you have the time to say "Oh Sh#t!" congradulations! Your now a survivor.

  2. Never say "Oh Sh#t!" more than once because you should be running away as fast as you can instead of repeating the phrase again. This doubles your chances of survival.

  3. Try to think about what is happening that caused you to say "Oh Sh#t". You've increased your chance of survival by 10 times if you do this as soon as possible. Remember to keep running. Stopping to look back just might kill you. It helps to be out of the danger area before you stop running.

  4. It's nice to have all the above but it is not necessary. Remember you survived everything so far and if you use some common sense you might survive the rest of it.

  5. If it is a WMD attack hope your at ground zero then you won't have to worry about such things as survival since you were vaporized, posioned or infected. If your on the edge of an attack then the chances are your totally screwed if it involves radiation, posion gas or biological weapon. Don't expect any help or that your going to be OK. Plan for the worse to happen and read the label on the cannister of Survival Cream before you have to say "Oh Sh#t!".

  6. Remember everyone else is going to go crazy. Not going crazy and keeping your wits about you increases your survival by a thousand times. Don't expect anyone else to be reasonable or you've just decreased your chances of survival by a thousand times.

  7. Just hope the Imp of the Perverse likes you since you enjoy his little jokes so much. When all else fails remember to find something to laugh about. You might just survive even against impossible odds.

  8. Most of the time it's what you don't know that will kill you. Try to learn a little about everything. Assume nothing.

  This is the poor man's survival guide.

  by hmsjo on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 03:40:52 AM PDT

•  multi-purpose tools

  I'm a Gerber girl myself, been having the Leatherman v. Gerber "discussion" for the last 12 or 13 years.  It seems sort of like a lifelong loyalty to a sports team; there's not a lot of switching sides.

  At any rate, I heartily endorse the recommendation to have a multi-purpose tool in your emergency kit, if not to have one on you all the time.  It's the one thing I own that I simply refuse to travel without, and has saved my ass on innumerable occasions.  Go out and get one, right now, whatever kind you choose.

  AG, thanks a million for putting such time & effort into this series.  It's been a tremendous public service.  I've had professional training in this stuff, and I still learned quite a few things.

  by the stormy present on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 04:32:13 AM PDT

  •  also

    Important caveat to your recommendation to carry a defensive (pepper) spray.... If you do this, do not attempt to use it indoors unless absolutely, positively necessary.  Do not test it indoors.  You will gas everyone in the room, including yourself.  Honestly, it shouldn't be necessary to even say this, but I learned it the hard way, thanks to someone else's idiocy.  The upside being that I now know how I respond to pepper spray.

    Also, if you put pepper spray in your kit, pay attention to the expiration date and replace it when necessary.

    by the stormy present on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 04:39:13 AM PDT

  •  Oh. You're one of THEM.

    I'm a Gerber girl myself

    by soonergrunt on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 05:38:36 AM PDT

    •  one of us... one of us... one of us....

      Don't worry, we can still be friends.... ;)

      by the stormy present on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 05:48:49 AM PDT

  •  Any recommendations re model? eom

    by roonie on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 06:00:27 AM PDT

    •  Gerbers

      Well, it depends a little on your needs.  They come in several different sizes, some with specialized tools, including one model with fishhook sharpeners.

      I've had mine for so long that the model I use is no longer made.  But it's probably closest to this one, which retails for $50.60.  (not sure what that $.60 is all about...)  

      If I had to get a new one, I'd probably go for this one, which comes with an extra set of screwdriver and socket attachments, or maybe this one, which has four interchangeable pliers.

      by the stormy present on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 06:50:38 AM PDT

  •  "have one on you all the time"

    I heartily agree - a multi-function if you can, or even a simple jack knife (swiss army type), or at the very least a pen knife, is a must-have.  Multi-function preferred, but I can't always carry something larger than a pen-knife.  

    I'm never without a tool of some sort, and find myself using it (whatever form it's in) daily.

    Never, never brave me, nor my fury tempt:
      Downy wings, but wroth they beat;
    Tempest even in reason's seat.

    by GreyHawk on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 06:20:17 AM PDT

  •  having sharpened steel...

    ...all my life, and I'm 60 now,I will say that Gerber blades take the best edge I have ever sharpened. Plus the Gerber design for a multi-tool is more effective than the Leatherman.  The Gerber costs more, and it worth it.

    by claude on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 06:31:23 AM PDT

    •  one-handed access

      The two things that sold me on the Gerber in the first place were the serrated blade (which Leatherman, at the time, didn't offer) and the one-hand-accessible design.

      I still like being able to get to everything with one hand, without letting go of whatever I was working on.  And you're 100 percent right about the blades.
      

      by the stormy present on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 06:57:29 AM PDT

      •  Leveling the playing field

        The Leatherman Charge Ti and XTi have been designed for one-handed access to lock-open blades and one-handed opening.  They also use a new steel alloy for the blades that appears to be the better of anything else I've used, including Gerber folders and my expensive-but-worth-it river knife.

        -AG
        

        by AlphaGeek on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 09:02:52 AM PDT

        •  hmmmm

          If it's just a matter of the playing field being level, I'll stick with my team. :)

          (But I'll probably check it out anyway just cuz I like gadgets so freakin' much....)

          by the stormy present on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 09:08:42 AM PDT

  •  Multi-Purpose tools?

    Can you give examples of situations where you have used the tools?

    by LNK on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 08:17:22 AM PDT

    •  it'd take a whole diary to describe them all

      You know, it's one of those things that I've had for so long and used in so many ways that I can't imagine doing without it.

      When I bought it, I did electrician and carpentry work, so I used it almost every day.

      Since then, I've used the knives (straightedge and serrated) to cut through rope, strapping tape on boxes and fabric.  

      I've used the screwdrivers and pliers to dismantle and repair all manner of things, including pieces of furniture, broken electrical cords (small ones), and (once) my laptop.

      On vacation once, on a tropical island far, far away, I used the pliers, one of the knives and a pair of tweezers (not included) to perform minor surgery on myself, in order to extract several large sea urchin spines embedded deep in the ball of my foot.

      Finally, as Eddie Haskell pointed out in another comment below, you can use the bottle opener to get to those vital beer supplies....

      by the stormy present on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 08:49:53 AM PDT

  •  a good carbon-steel knife and a quality toolkit

    are what I carry.

    Multi-tools will fail during an actual survival situation.  

    I have a gerber, don't use it anymore, now that I have (and know how to use) a good knife.

    With a good, sturdy knife, you can start fire (with flint/jasper), field-dress game, split firewood, and work wood.  A good knife can be easily sharpened, and will hold up under the stress of continuous use, and is much safer to use than a multi-tool.

    A good toolkit will outlast and out-perform a multi-tool.

    Gerber and leathermen make quality products from good materials; however they will fail under the stresses of an actual survival situation.

    I would not balance my survival with a multi-tool.  I would with a good knife.

    by montanamatt on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 09:56:22 AM PDT

  •  Well, not all the time

    At any rate, I heartily endorse the recommendation to have a multi-purpose tool in your emergency kit, if not to have one on you all the time.

    I ordinarily keep a Charge Ti with me at all times. However, that's bitten me in the butt twice, since I don't ever check luggage on airplanes. If you're taking a trip, either expect to check your luggage and put your multi-tool in your checked bag, or leave it at home, because the guards get very, very pissy at you if you try to take it on with you.

    In fact, even if your multi-tool has no blades or anything else sharp, and is in fact the size of your thumb, they will still take it away from you. 'I think you can figure out why we wouldn't want someone with tools on board an airplane' said a smug young man with an assault rifle, when I asked him. When I asked if he was afraid I'd try to take apart the airplane, he told me to go get on my plane if I didn't want to be 'retained'. I didn't ask him if he meant 'detained'.

    I've had a computer and a camera both completely demolished when in checked luggage, with plenty of padding. (In one case the hard-shell bag had a mark where a forklift tine apparently hit it; in the other, there wasn't room in the cabin for my carry-on, so they made me check it, then trashed it, then refused to pay for it.) I've also had someone manage to burst three bottles (including a bottle of black spray-on hair dye) in my toiletry kit, destroying most of my clothing. I have given up on bringing my multi-tool on trips with me, and on checking bags. So far I have never had to refuse a flight rather than check a bag, but if I need to, I will.

    (Incidentally, all three incidents resulted, for various reasons, in me not getting any money from the airline. If you read the fine print, they're not in fact liable if they break anything that is breakable. And apparently metal bottles of spray-on hair dye are considered breakable.)

    -fred

    by Fred Fnord on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 11:54:10 AM PDT

    •  funny you should mention that

      The only time I leave it behind is if I won't be checking luggage.  But I have to travel with so much equipment most of the time that I almost always check a bag or two.

      After years and years of traveling with my Gerber, having never ever once forgotten to put it in my checked baggage, I did actually do exactly that on my way home from a hiking holiday in Idaho last month.  I'd forgotten to take it out of my backpack, which I was carrying on.

      The NTSA screeners at the Boise airport were actually really friendly and even laughed about it, although it was early enough in the morning that there wasn't much of a line.

      Anyway, I thought I was finally saying goodbye to my Gerber, but they let me go back into the departures hall to mail it to myself.  Postage and an evelope for $5, and worth every cent.

      The screeners said it happens at least 20 times a day.

      by the stormy present on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 12:36:56 PM PDT

    •  I fucking hate that

      I ordinarily keep a Charge Ti with me at all times. However, that's bitten me in the butt twice, since I don't ever check luggage on airplanes. If you're taking a trip, either expect to check your luggage and put your multi-tool in your checked bag, or leave it at home, because the guards get very, very pissy at you if you try to take it on with you.

      My solution:

      

      Utili-Key 6-in-1 Tool, US$9.99 at ThinkGeek.  (no affiliation)

      Unlikely to cause drama, and a relative of mine who runs a division of the Air Marshal service says he doesn't see any problem with having it, as long as nobody hassles you about it.  Just keep it on a keyring with other keys, preferably in your bag.

      -AG
      

      by AlphaGeek on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 01:17:46 PM PDT

      •  now *that's* cool. n/t

        by the stormy present on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 02:40:01 PM PDT

      •  Hmm, that might work

        That might work, because it's not immediately obvious that it's not a key. I had one of these and they still confiscated it. No blade or anything. Two screwdrivers and a pliers. But it doesn't look like a key on first inspection.

        

        Of course, the rules aren't at all consistent. There were two airports that didn't confiscate that tool. And then there are a few airports that actually require you to take your shoes off, even if they don't have any metal in them. Some require you to take off your jacket, even if it doesn't set off the metal detector. Traveling these days is like playing slot machines: what will I lose today?

        -fred

        by Fred Fnord on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 02:44:15 PM PDT

•  Thanks for the series A.G.

  The only additional medical item I keep is Coban. The medical wrap self stick type sold in rolls. It can be used for wrapping wounds and can be used to immobilize sprains (instead of ace bandages).

  Thanks for a wonderful series. Like others I've printed the entire group...

  My weapon of choice is a Glock 9mm - light enough for the average woman to handle. Some of the others are too heavy for smaller hands.

  yes I know - first day broken rule...but this matters more...

  by SallyCat on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 05:09:52 AM PDT

  •  My pleasure, Sally

    Good suggestion on the Coban.  That would probably be a good addition or replacement to the Ace bandage in the suggested first-aid kit.

    I recognize, of course, that preferences in handguns are highly subjective and personal.  My own preference is for large-frame semi-autos with thumb safeties, but I certainly didn't advise my (petite) sister to get a H&K USP Tactical .45 for home security.  :)

    The lighter the gun, though, the more you should (IMHO) keep to the 9mm end of the 9mm/.40/.45 high-power cartridge range.  I find that it takes a lot of training and practice for even natural shooters to put rounds on target past 5m distance with the lightweight .40 and .45 pistols.

    -AG
    

    by AlphaGeek on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 09:15:11 AM PDT

    •  Revolvers.

      The only revolver you mentioned was the one you joked about. I think the single best weapon for home protection is the .357 Magnum.

      It will never fail. It can be kept loaded forever without compressing mag springs. And any member of my family would know how to use it in a pinch.

      Shotguns seem cool but they're only good if your attackers yell, "Hey! I'm coming over your fence now!" By the time they're on top of you, that shotgun is a liability.

      As for the automatics, I can use 'em. You can use 'em. But, when the shit hits the fan, I want to maximize the chance of something actually happening when the trigger gets pulled. And nothing does that like a mid-caliber revolver. Especially if it's my wife doing the shooting.
      

      by alysheba on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 11:11:51 AM PDT

    •  Also safes...

      It'd be great to talk about safes since a lot of people are probably going to go out and buy guns now.

      Now that my kids are becoming mobile, I have everything locked down. Favorite new device, the V-Line Hideaway with push-button code and sliding tray.

      Sure beats a Pelican case with a Master lock!

      by alysheba on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 11:16:49 AM PDT

      •  Topic for a new Diary, I think

        Worthy of full treatment and discussion.

        -AG

        by AlphaGeek on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 01:52:10 PM PDT

    •  Generally 9mm ammo but hollow point

      Having been police trained it wouldn't cross my mind to shoot to injure. If I'm pulling the trigger (for other than target practice) it's deadly.

      It's interesting being in CA - my 9mm is old enough it has a 13 round clip. It is technically illegal as a new purchase under the automatic weapons ban.

      Maybe sometime we can get together at a local range.

      by SallyCat on Wed Sep 21, 2005 at 03:39:24 AM PDT

      •  Choice of ammo

        Surprised this didn't come up in the gun nerd discussion.

        My USP is loaded with Federal Hydra-Shock Personal Defense rounds (PD40HS4H) for high lethality at short range, but with velocity & energy rapidly dropping off beyond 50 yards.  (Ballistics)

        We should definitely put together a range meetup sometime soon.  We could easily rustle up a half-dozen shooters in the Bay Area, probably more.

        -AG
        

        by AlphaGeek on Wed Sep 21, 2005 at 10:00:33 AM PDT

        •  Ammunition

          Shotgun: Federal P158 12ga 3" magnum 00 buck or P151SS 12ga 3" Hydra-Shok Sabot HP
          Rifle: Federal P223Q 223Remington 60gr partitioned, or the aforementioned M193 ball surplus if I can get it (harder and harder these days)
          Pistols:
          SIG P226ST:  Federal P40HS3 165gr Hydra-Shok JHP
          Colt Python:  Federal P357HS1 158gr Hydra-Shok JHP
          I've been borrowing my dad's Remington 700 .308Win for hunting.  He's never actually fired it since he bought it as far as I know.  I shoot it more than my mini-14.  I'm going to buy it from him once I get a new job.  I fire Federal P308S2.
          

          by soonergrunt on Wed Sep 21, 2005 at 08:58:41 PM PDT

          •  But soonergrunt...

            I'm still unclear.  Do you have a recommendation for any particular brand of ammo?

            Heh.

            Agree on the Remington 700.  Best rifle I ever shot was a heavily customized .308Win 700 owned by an instructor at the Quantico sniper school -- free-floated barrel, carbon stock, Harris bipod, adjustable cheek pad, the whole nine yards.  That rifle made me realize that I wasn't good enough to do it justice.  I particularly liked the adjustable cheek pad.  (And yes, it had an uber-expensive scope on it, of course.)

            Not all 700's are that good, but the basic rifle is at least 90% of that.

            -AG

            by AlphaGeek on Wed Sep 21, 2005 at 09:55:46 PM PDT

            •  Sniper Rifles

              Marine sniper rifles are custom made by the Marine Marksmanship Unit for each individual graduate of the Marine Scout-Sniper School.  They take a Remington 700, break it down, and replace probably 50% to 65% of the components with precision machined components built in-house.  In many cases, they are remanufacturing rifles from inventory.  The result is the M40 sniper rifle.
              The Army uses a factory-custom Remington 700 with a length-adjustable stock, harris bipod, and and Bushnell 3-9x40 boresighted scope with custom reticle integrated at the factory.  This is the M24.  We have a LOT more sniper rifles than the Marines do, so custom work on every scope would be tremendously expensive.
              The M82A1 Sniper Rifle is a .50cal made by the Barrett Firearms Company.  It is being replaced by the M107 made by the same company, with a 2500m range.  The XM109 is an M107 with a shorter barrel and a range of 2000m, intended for light-infantry/airborne units.  The XM109 is currently undergoing test deployment in Afghanistan.

              The army is currently looking for a replacement for the M16/M4 family.  The two issues that are most important are the kinetic energy delivery (the thing you were talking about earlier with multiple shots on the target that isn't going down) and the full-gas operating system.  The M8 carbine system, produced by HK, addresses the second of these with an operating rod and piston assembly that doesn't re-introduce any propellant gasses back into the chamber, but it still fires the M856 ball ammo.  For this reason, its introduction has been held up.  It was supposed to start coming into service this year.  Barrett has an upper receiver for mounting to an M16/M4 lower that they call the M468 that fires the 6.8mm Remington Special Purpose Cartridge, but it uses the full gas system.  Personally, I'd like to see the M8 rechambered for the 6.8mm

              by soonergrunt on Wed Sep 21, 2005 at 11:00:10 PM PDT

  •  or Vetrap or coflex

    A similar product is sold for veterinary use as Vetrap, and its cheaper competitor, CoFlex. This is really great stuff - as useful as duct tape. It is stretchy, flexible, and sticks only to itself. It becomes stiff if you build up enough layers. Though it has obvious and important medical applications, it can also be used for a variety of random attachment duties. You can buy it for around $2 a roll from a vet supply store or from a place like Petsmart.

    by elfling on Wed Sep 21, 2005 at 12:11:28 PM PDT

    •  Be aware of latex allergies

      If anyone in your family is allergic to latex, Vetrap and Ace bandages both should be used with extreme caution.  If the allergy is mild, it may be enough to wrap gauze under the Vetrap to create a shield.  A seriously allergic person may have a life-threatening reaction even in this case.

      Latex gloves were also recommended upthread.  Vinyl gloves are readily available, almost the same price, and won't trigger a reaction in allergic persons; they might be a better choice in general.
      

      by kate petersen on Wed Sep 21, 2005 at 02:37:58 PM PDT

    •  Another comment on latex sensitivity

      People who are allergic to kiwi and mango are also often also allergic to latex (the plants are similar enough to trigger the same antibodies) but may not be aware of the latex sensitivity.  
      

      by kate petersen on Wed Sep 21, 2005 at 02:58:55 PM PDT

•  Evacuation by bicycle

  From some major cities, your bicycle may be a more viable means of evacuation than a car, as you won't have to worry about traffic jams.

  Again, it helps to consider routes beforehand. From downtown DC, for instance, you'll move faster in Rock Creek Park, than fighting traffic on the city streets.

  by ben masel on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 05:25:26 AM PDT

  •  Thanks

    As someone getting ready to move to DC, that was a very practical piece of information, and while I hope I never have to use it, it could be life-saving information.  

    by DHinMI on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 07:11:34 AM PDT

    •  Waittaminute

      Does that mean that you'll be DHinMIinDC, or will you simply be DHinDC?

      And are you moving into DC proper, or into a city in the area?

      -AG
      

      by AlphaGeek on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 09:16:26 AM PDT

      •  Still Unclear

        Initially I'll be staying in DC.  I haven't made longterm plans yet.  

        by DHinMI on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 09:22:57 AM PDT

    •  A good alternative route

      The C&O Canal towpath. Gets you almost to the Pennsylvania line.

      by ben masel on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 10:03:22 AM PDT

      •  Ben

        When the subject is escaping from DC, there's no one else I can think of in whom I would put greater trust, because I can only think of one other person--like you, he's been arrested over 100 times for political/protest reasons--who may already have had need to slip out of DC quickly and by unconventional means.  

        by DHinMI on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 10:36:01 AM PDT

        •  Is this a Pun...

          or a joke?

          by ben masel on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 10:49:17 AM PDT

  •  Tools and knowledge

    If you're going to depend on a bicycle, you'll want to have some bicycle-specific knowledge and equipment. In particular, you'll want to be able to:

    • Fix a flat tire
    • Tighten anything that comes loose
    • Carry stuff with you
    • Ride after dark

    This means you need to have:

    • a frame pump
    • tire levers
    • spare inner tube
    • patch kit for fixing a punctured inner tube, in case you get more than one flat (I like Rema Tip-Top patches)
    • A bicycle-specific multitool, because bicycles tend to use metric nuts and bolts which you may have a hard time finding tools for. I use a Topeak Alien with included chain tool (for rejoining broken chains), but there are a lot of other options out there.
    • A rack and panniers for carrying a load
    • A front white light and red rear rear light, so that you can see where you're going and be seen by others when traveling after dark.

    by silence on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 09:49:06 AM PDT

    •  Changing a flat

      If you need to change a flat bike tire, don't do it anywhere near a storm drain.

      Stuff you need wants to be in the storm drain more than it wants to be in your hand...

      by mataliandy on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 11:25:21 AM PDT

•   Thank you, our author, our humble correspondent

  The completion of this highly valued work required a number of responses.  In no particular order:

  1. Effusive thanks

  2. Crack open the new 2-inch "We Done Blowed Away!" notebook, to which I have already transferred tornado, earthquake, and other U.S.maps, global warming article, and other light reading, and print, print, print.

  3. Determine that 91-year old mother has sufficient character to take a pass on the family outward bound tent experience (she's survived 10 years with me running the household; God knows that's enough)

  4. Realize that life is sweet, even though we don't know if it will be long or short.  The least prudent, most expensive, and most life-affirming thing I can think to do is to adopt another dog and add ballast to the family escape pod.  I may just do it!

  by gazingoffsouthward on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 05:26:20 AM PDT

•  Bravo AG! Last idea is on exerting leadership...

  Thank you so much for investing the time to compile so much helpful information.  While you have done a great job of telling folks how to be prepared for any emergency, the rest is up to them.  

  in an emergency.  Will folks have the presence of mind to quickly react and lead as necessary during an emergency?  Will they have the physical stamina to climb up / down / over whatever obstacles are in their way (or will they really wish they HAD quit smoking)?  After all, their individual survival may depend in large part on the survival of a larger group of which they are a part.

  The last piece of advice I would offer would be to urge all readers to be ready to assume leadership of any situation, especially one where a group is involved.  This is where NOLA went so terribly awry, and it could make the difference between having a solid team focused on collective survival and pure anarchy focused on individual survival.  

  Can this leadership capability be learned and instilled in the average person?  I sure hope so, because I'm creating a unique company to provide this type of high-performance leadership training.  We'll be on line in summer '07 with a series of real-world physical challenges (e.g., climbing up/down 5-story apartment facade in the dark) and deeply immersive scenarios (e.g., on-stage interactive plays).  

  Congratulations and thanks again for an excellent series!

  by Doolittle Sothere on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 05:26:49 AM PDT

  •  Another strategy: Know your neighbors

    This series (particularly this last installment) is geared to individual survival.  Another possibility is to know your neighbors and to have frequent get-togethers, preferably including a meeting on disaster preparedness.  People who know and trust each other can band together for safety and pool skills and resources, probably increasing their chances of survival.   A larger group is more likely to be able to fend off challengers.  

    Our Bay Area city has police officers who will come into a neighborhood and give talks on preparedness (chiefly earthquake) and offer advice.  This is particularly good in a neighborhood where there are a few people who are generally stay-at-homes, such as the retired or   work-at-homes.  We have a directory with all the names, phone numbers, household members etc for a 2 1/2 block area and update it once a year.  We also have block parties and have had the neighborhood meetings.  I recommend this for general day-to-day community building, but it should also pay off in a disaster.

    by Mimikatz on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 09:07:24 AM PDT

    •  I agree -- and the two are not mutually exclusive

      Mimikatz is right, of course.  In my efforts to rein in this great beast of a series, I have given short shrift to community involvement.  Mea culpa.

      I will say that I strongly recommend participation in the CERT programs present in many cities.  20 hours of free disaster preparedness training is quite a bargain.  Once you've done that, it gives you a solid basis for reaching out to your neighbors to talk about preparedness because you feel like you know enough to be helpful.

      Been to CERT training yet, Mimikatz?  :)

      -AG
      

      by AlphaGeek on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 09:47:40 AM PDT

  •  Heh -- assumptions

    I have the alpha-male leader thing so deeply ingrained in my personality (cue sarcastic shouts of "no! really?" from the crowd) that I simply assume that I will take charge in a crisis.  

    My hope is that some large fraction of the readers of this series, by empowering themselves with knowledge, preparation, and materials, will naturally be in a position to offer leadership and guidance when things go sideways.  Training is obviously a key part of that, and I hope you'll consider offering a first-aid/CPR combo class as part of your curriculum.

    -AG
    

    by AlphaGeek on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 09:21:52 AM PDT

•  On Shotguns and Pistols

  The shotgun I own is a Mossberg 500 SP, specifically, model #50579--20"bbl, 8-shot capacity, std stock with a pistol grip kit (MSRP $357.)
  I used to own a Remington 870P.  I prefer the 500 for many reasons.  It's easier to maintain.  The Remington 870's shell lifter remains in the down position until the slide is retracted fully to the rear and starts its journey forward to insert the shell into the chamber. The Mossberg 500's shell lifter stays in the up position until the slide is fully retracted.  This means that you're less likely to get your hand (painfully) stuck in the receiver with the 500 when loading it.
  The Remington 870 has one extractor. The Mossberg 500 has two.
  The Remington 870 safety is located on the triggerguard, to the rear, in a cross-bolt fashion. You press to the right to make the weapon on safe and to the left to take the weapon off safe.  The Mossberg 500's safety is found on the top of the receiver tang. You pull the safety button back (towards you) to make the weapon on safe and press the safety forward with your thumb to take the weapon off safe.
  To me, the Mossberg's safety is more instinctive -- push itforward and you're ready to go. Not everyone will agree with me here, but you should see which system you prefer.
  Because the safety on the Mossberg is actuated with the thumb, you are able to manipulate the safety without moving your trigger finger from the indexed position along the side of the triggerguard. This is not possible with the Remington 870, as the safety must be actuated with the trigger finger -- and not only that, you must move the finger away from the indexed position to behind the triggerguard.

  As for pistols, my personal favorite is the SIG P226 ST in .40 S&W.

  Both weapons have tactical lights mounted--shoot/no shoot is an easier decision when you can see the target, after all.
  Also, I strongly recommend that if you've decided that you absolutely must have a gun, and you've never shot a pistol before, stick to the shotgun.  Pistols are a LOT harder to use than the movies make them look like, and they require constant range time to achieve and maintain skill.

  by soonergrunt on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 05:34:54 AM PDT

  •  Hey soonergrunt:

    Drop me an email. This is longjohns, not firearm related.

    by ben masel on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 06:07:14 AM PDT

    •  will do, thanks.

      by soonergrunt on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 06:12:55 AM PDT

      •  I get a bouceback from your email

        listed on your Kos homepage.

        by soonergrunt on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 08:18:34 AM PDT

  •  Mossberg 500

    is also an excellent choice for anyone who shoot left-handed.  The saftey is right infront of your thumb regadless of which shoulder the stock is up against.

    by Achlis on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 06:37:22 AM PDT

    •  It's fun seeing the gun nerds...

      ... come out of the woodwork here at dailyKos.

      by Plutonium Page on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 06:43:30 AM PDT

      •  I Doubt That Had...

        ...anything to do with your promotion of this diary.  But you can't deny some extra exuberance because of the gun stuff.  ;-)

        by DHinMI on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 07:10:20 AM PDT

  •  Shotguns

    I don't have one (yet).  Even though I'm moving to Europe, I'm not going to sell my guns;  my parents will keep them for me.  We'll be moving back here, eventually, so I'll probably buy one at some point.

    Thanks for the Mossburg recommendation, and thank you, AlphaGeek, for a fantastic diary!

    More on guns:

    I have a Ruger PC9 (carbine, 9mm ammo) that I love.  Very, very accurate, easy to shoot, etc.

    As for concealed carry, the only pistol I have that I can carry in an inside-the-waistband holster is my Smith & Wesson 649 LS.  Easy to conceal, but I actually prefer carrying one of my semi-autos in a waist pack.

    Soonergrunt, you're probably very familiar with the Blackhawk products, right?  My waist pack is made by Blackhawk, and it's indestructible.

    I love my H & K P7M8.  Since you cock it by squeezing the grip, it's very safe for carrying with a round in the chamber.  You can draw, cock, and fire very quickly.  That link says that it's no longer in production - that's news to me!  It was already a very expensive pistol (about $1,300 but I got mine in nearly new condition for $800), so it's probably incredibly expensive now.

    </gun nerd>
    

    by Plutonium Page on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 06:42:55 AM PDT

    •  Blackhawk makes some good stuff

      they're a little pricey, but you get what you pay for most of the time.  For actual field gear, I prefer Spec-Ops Brand and Tactical Tailor.

      Camelbak makes some great field gear, too.  I just bought this at the Fort Sill Clothing Sales store.
      I have sold all of my OD/woodland personal tactical gear, and am in the process of buying stuff with the ACU pattern now.  No more of this rediculous desert pattern BDU with OD green and woodland pattern equipment.

      by soonergrunt on Tue Sep 20, 2005 at 06:57:58 AM PDT

    •  Rifles, and notes on weapons maintenance

      I have an older model Mini-14 AC556 Pre-ban with a collapsable stock.  It takes the NATO 20- and 30-round magazines.  The newer model does not take the NATO magazines.

      ALL firearms must undergo routine maintenance.  They should be broken down and cleaned as soon as possible after firing, and at least twice a year when stored.  This maintenance should include disassembly, cleaning, and reassembly of magazines.  If magazines are to be stored loaded, they should be stored short-loaded, 80% of the full capacity of the magazine.  30-rd mags should only be stored with 24 rounds, 20-rd mags should only be stored with 16 rounds, 10-rd mags should only be stored with 8 rounds, and 5-round magazines should be stored empty.  This is to prevent the spring from loosing it's elasticity and the follower from becomming jammed.
      For this reason, many people prefer revolvers for personal defense.  Taurus and Ruger make very good revolvers.  You cannot have my Colt Python, so don't even ask.
      The maintenance should extend to scopes and lights/lazers if so fitted, with batteries exchanged yearly with an inspection of battery compartments for corrosion/leakage.

      And last but not least, ALL FIREARMS SHOUL