The Canadian election is beginning it's second season this week after having been correctly ignored by most sane people during the holiday season. This is an election only Stephen Harper of the
CPC and Paul Martin of the
Liberals wanted; Harper to prevent himself from being turfed as a loser by his own party and Martin in an opportunistic attempt to form a majority government that doesn't have to deal with NDP demands in a minority government. Election day is January 23rd.
More below the fold...
First, the players:
The
Liberals: Led by Prime Minister Paul Martin, the Liberals have been in power since the early '90s. Their claim to fame is that they have eliminated the horrendous budget deficits of the '70s and '80s, reduced the federal debt, passed the Charter of Rights (our Bill of Rights), kept the economy humming along at a nice pace, and kept us out of Iraq.
The Conservative Party Of Canada: Currently led by Stephen Harper, the CPC is an amalgam of the former CRAP(Conservative Reform Alliance Party) and Progressive Conservative Party (the Tories). The CPC has been unable to make significant inroads into eastern Canada, and especially Quebec, and is still regarded by many as a western regional party with most of it's support coming from Alberta and British Columbia. Harper and the CPC came very close to winning a majority in the last election and have been eager to have another go at it. The CPC supported going into Iraq, participating in Bush's Missle Defense program, using the 'Notwithstanding clause' to outlaw gay marriage, racist immigration laws, the return of the death penalty, and, well, you can guess the rest.
The NDP: Led by Jack Layton, the New Democratic Party is the left-of-center progressive party that has been supporting Martin's Liberal minority government for the last year, although at a price. Layton demanded, and received, increased spending on health care and other social spending, much to the ire of PM Martin. The current election was triggered by NDP demands for even more social spending at the expense of Martin's planned corporate tax breaks.
The Bloc Quebecois: Led by Gilles Duceppe, the BQ is the Quebec-based separatist party. A good analogy for the BQ's relationship with the other parties is that of Charles DeGaulle with the Allies during WWII. 'Nuff said.
Now, the issues:
1. The Sponsorship Scandal: This is about a Liberal slush fund established back in 1995 by the Chretien government during a vote in Quebec on secession. The fund was used to pay media companies to support the government position during the referendum, but some of the money found it's way into Liberal campaign coffers. There was about $100 million involved altogether, with a small percentage used for kickbacks. This issue has traction mostly with CPC partisans looking to paint the Martin government with the broad brush of corruption. Most other people don't have the foggiest what this is about.
2. The Income Trust Leak: This is another wannabe CPC corruption issue involving the leak of Liberal plans to modify the tax status of income trusts. Income trusts are corporations that do not pay taxes because they distribute a very high percentage of their profits as dividends. Again, most people have no idea what this is about, but the CPC is flogging it hard.
3. Day Care: Both the Liberals and the CPC are promising additional funds for daycare. The difference is that the CPC wants to do it through a $1200/child tax break while the Liberals prefer to send the money to the provincial governments to run their own programs. The NDP wants to fund daycare centres directly.
4. Healthcare Wait Times: The only party running hard on this issue is the NDP. Both the Liberals and the CPC are paying lip service, but are mostly avoiding the issue. This is because it was Paul Martin, as Finance Minister, who reduced federal transfer payments to the provinces, who actually run the healthcare system, by approximately 80%, causing the current extended wait times for orthopedic surgeries. The CPC wants to privatise the entire system along the US model. Jack Layton is promising to increase funding to the healthcare system to reduce wait times.
The Horse Race:
According to this Globe and Mail article, the election is up for grabs with the Liberals polling ahead of the CPC by only two points, 33% to 31%. The race may be decided by Liberal defections to the NDP, which is polling at 17%. During the last election many NDP voters chose to vote 'strategically', voting for the Liberal candidate in ridings where the NDP was not competitive in order to defeat the dreaded CPC and their wingnut agenda. The liberals actively pushed this meme and squeaked through, although with a minority government. Paul Martin is expected to flog this point during the rest of the campaign, although Jack Layton is not cooperating this time around.
A comic aspect of this situation is that if the CPC actually wins more seats than the Liberals, they will have first crack at forming a coalition government, which will be very interesting. Neither the NDP nor the Bloc Quebecois will be disposed towards voting with the despised CPC, leaving only the Liberals as a coalition partner. My own guess is that they would attempt to peel off a few conservative Liberal backbenchers with ministerships and other bribes, which might just set off a real donnybrook. The other possibility is that they attempt to govern without a coalition partner; this would likely result in the shortest lived government in Canadian history.
The most likely outcome, still, is another Liberal minority government supported, once again, by the NDP, although at a higher price than last goround. Paul Martin is most probably looking around for someone to blame for this debacle of an election. It was not neccessary. The public didn't want it, and it may well be the beginning of the end for Martin's mediocre career. The real winner of this election will be Jack Layton and the NDP, who I estimate will pick up about five seats.