Nations find themselves driven to war by looming economic fears. Germany in WWI chose war over looming economic subservience to France and England. Japan in WWII chose war over looming economic slavery to whomever had the oil and steel they needed. America in 2003 chose war in Iraq over looming economic dependency on whosoever has the oil we need plenty of to keep our non-negotiable way of life going.
War is not the only solution in such circumstances, but war is usually the only option given serious consideration. The same expenditures of funds and human blood that were the two world wars and this opening skirmish of WWIII could have been expended in revamping and reorganizing national and regional economies and partnerships to much better results.
But, people never actually do things that way. When threatened with looming change, people cling the tighter to what they have and how they live -- until you bomb their house, at which point they wholeheartedly espouse any sort of change and effort asked of them. Without war, you just don't get that all out effort, that oomph. Comfort comes first, until comfort is removed.
Looming fear of change causes people to accept, even embrace war. As Goering said, you can create a war any old time by scaring your own people with an imaginary enemy that wants to change or take away what they have. Voila, the shooting starts soon after the flag waving reaches its peak.
America could revamp and reorganize economically to put ourselves in a position to live without Middle Eastern oil, and thus avoid WWIII, but doing so would make us uncomfortable, uncertain, and unhappy. Which is unAmerican. And, it would make a great many politicians unelected. So, it is highly unlikely to happen. No, we'll just kill whoever looms at us; it's simpler than solving the original problem.
Which is how we got to where we are today. Like Hitler after Poland, BushCo is proceeding with their next resource war, for the electoral and economic benefits they expect to gain from it. Iran is the target. Like Hitler, they will not stop before their series of little wars causes WWIII by provoking other nations who have absolute live-or-die stakes in what we're up to -- if we control that oil, they don't, and they just cannot let that happen.
We can't let China control all that oil, either. But we are ignoring the truth that we don't actually have to have that oil -- if we change how we live. We could ignore the Middle East if we changed some of our driving and working habits. But no, that would be uncomfortable, so we are going to kill whoever else wants that oil, and thus put off changing how we live. For years, even. Until we really, really have to change anyway. WWIII will be the war for America's comfort.
We are not the only nation interested in the Middle East's oil, and we are not the only nation capable of acting militarily in the region. In fact, we're breaking our economy to be over there at all. As to some real fighting, we cannot possibly get 500,000 troops over there in less than six months. China can march two million troops into the region in ten days, no ships, trucks or planes needed. If they do nothing more than sit on their duffs and eat rice, we are out of the Great Game from that point on.
We aren't truly prepared to act in the region; we skirt the edges of total war, bluffing the Chinese and Russians. Indeed, the logistical problems involved with conquering Iran and turning it once again into an American puppet state limit us to an air campaign supplemented with some Special Forces raiding.
This is clearly not a workable plan without adding a stiff dose of neoconservative fantasy -- that these meager efforts will somehow topple the Iranian Government in a popular uprising of the youth of the country. Well, of course the youth of Iran will not attack their mullahs if we bomb their country. Such a cakewalk conquest is just another neoconservative wet dream. In reality, bombing people only makes them mad at you. The more you bomb them and theirs, the madder they become. Like Ahab, they will spit their last breath at thee.
Like the war on Iraq, the war on Iran is lost before it begins, but not because of logistical obstacles or lack of political will on our part. No, the real problem BushCo faces in hitting Iran is one that they are not facing, and no one is discussing. It is the cold steel reality that neither Russia or China will permit America to disrupt Middle Eastern oil production any further than has already been done.
Iraq has been a hell of an accomplishment. Despite promises of a glorious future, replete with hundreds of billions in Iraqi reconstruction money to pay for our bombs and bullets as well as butter for everyone afterwards, we have only managed to effectively put Iraq out of the oil business. Now we've quit on even trying to rebuild the place; we just want to move on. This is a mess only a drunken cowboy from Connecticut could conjure up. What makes anyone think the other world powers will let this cowboy continue into Persia so he can fix their petroleum industry even gooder'n Iraq's?
China and Russia know America is not a superpower, but a paper tiger. They see the Middle East as their backyard, not ours. In their backyard, they are the ones with the most troops and guns, not us. Just visualize the problems China would have invading and occupying Venezuela, and you will understand how they view our adventure in Iraq. "Oh, go ahead and play with the tar baby! Knock yourself out!"
Only a few prescient commenters around the world have stated the truth, that Iraq is just a skirmish before the real fighting of WWIII begins. Bombing Iran means disrupting oil supplies to people who really, really don't want them interrupted. People with the means to put an immediate halt to any such interruption. China and Russia have plainly and bluntly stated to Bush that they will not permit any actual attacks on Iran, since that would so destabilize the region that oil production could not be guaranteed from any state in the region. It will not be permitted.
In 2006, we will see Bush not listen. If Bush remains in office, we will bomb Iran sometime between March 1st and July 1st, and Iran's all out military response will force us to use tactical nuclear weapons to survive, to save our troops. As soon as we do, we will lose American cities.
America will be stopped.