WOO-HOO! For all you Canadian politics geeks out there! All, uh, five or six of you...This is your opportunity to show your stuff!
What are your predictions for Monday's election? Will the Conservatives, as expected, pull off a minority? Or will they surpass expectation and get <shudder> a majority? Will people have an "Omigod! Stephen Harper!" moment in the voting booth, and actually return a Liberal minority? Oh. My. Gawd. I'm going to pee myself I'm ao excited!
More below the fold...
One of these men will be Prime Minister of Canada by bedtime on Monday. Who will it be?
Paul Martin has had one hell of an eighteen months trying to govern with his minority government. He has been bedevilled by the legacy of the scandals of the Jean Chretien government - an era in which the Liberals had no credible opposition and let the arrogance of power seep around their edges. He has been stymied in trying to introduce a coherent legislative programme by the wiles of very disparate opposition demands. And, quite frankly, he has been incoherent himself in outlining his own dreams and vision for the country. In all respects, the Liberals seem tired, worn out, and bereft of fresh ideas.
Stephen Harper, on the other hand, has run a tight and disciplined campaign. He has successfully muzzled the wingnut candidates, and has stayed on message - which has been essentially Liberal lite. He has smiled, not lost his temper, and has most not allowed himself to be painted as a Bushian clone.
The latest polls suggest a Conservative minority, or maybe even majority, depending on who you believe. A shift of a percentage point here and there could have a major impact, benefitting either the Conservatvies or the Liberals. Conventional wisdom holds that the Liberals will benefit from last minute changes of heart in the voting booth.
For what it's worth, my own prediction is as follows:
Cons - 133
Libs - 77
Bloc - 58
NDP - 40
I see the Tories picking up everywhere, except BC, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, where I believe that the NDP will be beneficiaries of strategic voting by anti-Tory electors.
Watch the Tories to pick up half or more of the seats in Atlantic Canada, as well as up to 10 or 12 in the Eastern Townships, Quebec City, and Montreal regions of Quebec. I see the Tories getting up to half the seats in Ontario, and the NDP picking up 20 if they're lucky.
Watch the NDP to improve their fortunes especially in Northern Ontario, parts of Manitoba and Saskatchewan, and Vancouver Island.
The Liberals will get their chesnuts roasted, but not as severly as polls predict as Canadians do their usual "My God - Stephen Harper!" routine once they get in the voting booth. Paper ballots, of course!
NOW IT's YOUR TURN!
What is your prediction on the seat distribution? Why? Where do you think the ridings or regions to watch are? What do you you think the implications will be if your prediction turns out to be true?
The winner of the pool will get a kind mention in tomorrow's diary. And perhaps a blue ribbon!
Remember, Canadian Kossacks, to VOTE!