The message coming out of the election of Stephen Harper and his Conservative Party is clear. Last night the Canadian people did
not vote for the Conservative Party. Instead, they voted against the Liberal Party. Canadians and Harper himself know this, and it will colour the way in which this government unfolds over what will be its very brief life.
What will the Tories do in office?
How will they try to expand their appeal?
Who are the contenders for the Liberal leadership, and how will that party rebuild?
Who won the pool?
More below the fold.
The Message of the Election
Stephen Harper's rhetoric during this campaign had one overarching goal: To reduce Canadians' fears that a Conservative government would be run by fundamentalist wingnuts bent on destroying Canada's social programmes and remaking Canada into a northern version of the United States. So, for all you Kossacks wringing your hands about what this voctory might mean, relax. If Harper wants to maintain power, he cannot confirm Canadians' worst fears.
The Canadian electorate proved themselves shrewd once again, holding Harper to the slimmest of mandates (thirty seats short of a majority needed to pass legislation without opposition votes); and rewarding the leftist NDP with a significant boost in their seats. Again the message is clear: Canadians are, by political temperment, centre-left (which, by US standards, is significantly to the left of the Democratic Party mainstream), but have agrred with NDP leader Jack Layton that the Liberal Party needs to go in for repairs. After they clean house, end their internal bickering, and rediscover their vision, Canadians will happily return them to power, just as they have for 70 of the past 100 years.
They have also decided that Harper is wanting to remake the Conservatives into the blend of Blue (socially conservative) and Red (socially progressive) Tories that existed prior to the meltdown of the old Progressive-Conservative Party in 1993. If his rhetoric does not match his programme, Canadians will be unimpressed.
Canada-US Relations
Canadians are keen observers of the American political scene, and they are not happy with what they see. Canada and the US have been moving in opposite directions since the Reagan years, and there is little appetite in the country to change course. Bush's approval ratings in Canada regularly run in the teens, so cozying to the US on some of its foreign policy aims is not a winning strategy for Harper. Improving economic relations with the US government is good strategy, however, especially given the longstanding softwood lumber> imbroglio. Look for movement on this, but look for Harper to work to not put too much proximity between him and the Bush administration. American officials know as well as anyone that too much perceived coziness between their leaders and Canadian leaders goes down extremely poorly in Canada, especially now.
What the Tories Will Do
First of all, they cannot pass legislation without the assistance of at least one of the opposition parties - all of which are centre-left or left-wing. Harper will have his free vote on same-sex marriage - and same-sex marriage will win again. He will try to kill any private member's bills seeking to push a socially conservative agenda - but if they slip through the net, they won't go anywhere and will confirm Canadian fears of latent wingnuttery.
Canadians are also keen observers of their own political scene. Active debates between ordinary Canadians on the minutiae of health care delivery, various strategies for funding a national child care programme, the pros and cons on various options on tax reform, and the complexities of federal transfer payments to the provinces are not uncommon. To a far greater degree than their American counterparts (I used to live in the US and observed this first-hand), Canadians are both savvy concerning political motives and strategies and astute concerning issues and policies.
Look for the Tories to move swiftly to introduce their much-ballyhooed Accountability Act to avoid the repeat of the corruption scandal that plagued the former administration. Look for them also to introduce some democratic reforms, moving to an elected Senate, more free votes in Parliament, and possibly - under the prodding of the NDP - moves towards proportional representation.
Look for the Tories to push policies of "devolution" of power to the provinces. This is Mulroney redux - an attempt to woo soft nationalists in Quebec in order to provide a base of support in this historically anti-Tory province, while at the same time pandering to their Alberta base's demands for more provincial autonomy. The risk here is two-fold. First, while Harper needs Quebec to sustain a viable national party, Quebecers are the most socially-liberal of Canadians. This will inevitably pull the Conservatives leftward, setting up a possibility of a fracture similar to the one that occurred in 93, when the Tories split into the western Reform Party and the Quebec nationalist Bloc Quebecois. Second, increased provincial autonomy risks alienating strong nationalists in Atlantic Canada, parts of BC, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, and - most importantly - seat-rich Ontario. Nonetheless, look for Harper to start sending more money to the provinces and giving them some latitude over health care delivery (i.e., more private clinics).
Finally, look for tax cuts. Harper has already promised a cut to Canada's national sales tax - the GST.
Meanwhile, the Liberals
Liberal Leader Paul Martin announced his resignation last night opening the way for a leadership campaign in that party, which I'm sure many Canadians are regarding with relief. Who are some of the contenders?
Martin Cauchon Former Chretien cabinet minister, serving in the departments of Revenue and Justice. An ardent Martin foe, he left the Commons after Martin's election as leader. Pros: He is a Francophone Quebecer who could help rebuild the party there, and continue the Liberal tradition of alternating between francophones and anglophones. He is articulate and politically savvy. Cons: His association with the corrupt Quebec wing of the Chretien Liberals.
Stephane Dion A longtime cabinet minister from Quebec, most recently serving admirably as Martin's Environment Minister. He is considered intelligent and affable. Pros: Has administered his portfolio commendably, most recently hammering out an agreement in Montreal on the "son of Kyoto." Cons: He is not hugely popular in his home province, and is about as inspiring as a piece of dry toast.
Ujjal Dosanjh Former NDP Premier of British Columbia who became Martin's Health Minister. He is reknowned for having courageously stood against violent Sikh terrorists living in Canada as editor of an Indo-Canadian newspaper. He survived a brutal assault as a result of his outspokenness. Pros: Intelligent, articulate, witty, and would be the first non-European immingrant and Indo-Canadian to lead a national party. Cons - As Health Minister, he proved himself to be not entirely master of his portfolio.
Michael Ignatieff The wunderkind former Harvard professor and author who returned to his home country to run for the Liberals in the 2006 election. He fancies himself another "philosopher king" in the mould of Pierre Trudeau. Pros - His high profile and reputation as an astute acadmeic. Cons - He is widely seen as a power-hungry, aloof, arrogant prick.
Frank McKenna Former Liberal Premier of New Brunswick and current Ambassador to the United States. Pros - Charismatic, outspoken, widely respected. Cons - He doesn't have a seat in the Commons and has been off the political stage for quite some time.
Belinda Stronach Scion of the wealthy family that owns Magna International, she began her political career as a Red (i.e., progressive) Tory who crossed the floor to join the Liberals during the same-sex marriage debate (she has a gay son). She served as Martin's Human Resources Minister. Pros: Charismatic, articulate, and a woman. Cons: Perceived by some as in it for the power, and as an untrustworthy turncoat.
Who won the Pool?
On Sunday, I posted a diary in which I invited Kossacks to guess the number of seats. Here are the winners:
Conservatives
High estimate 145
Low estimate 110
Actual 124
Winner: MGK and Scarce (tie) - 128
Liberals
High estimate 101
Low estimate 71
Actual 103
Winner Christian Dem in NC - 101
NDP
High estimate 40
Low estimate 28
Actual 29
Winner Scarce - 29
BQ
High estimate 63
Low estimate 55
Actual 51
Winner Ben P - 55