Canadian Election Results*
Party Seats % Vote
CON 124 36.25%
LIB 103 30.22%
BQ 51 10.48%
NDP 29 17.49%
IND 0 1 .52%
OTH 0 5.05%
Harper will be PM; Martin resigns as Liberal leader.
*Yes, others have posted about this, but . . . well, I list the # of seats won . . . and . . . look over there! A flying dog!
SO -- What does it all mean, anyway? First, despite two scandals, a collapse in Quebec and a general sense that the Liberals are tired and have been in power for too long, the Tories managed a weak minority. It may not last beyond the first budget vote, absent some significant CAN$ sent to Quebec to curry favor with the Bloc. Moreover, Harper is expected to govern from the center, which means no fallating GWB and keeping the loonies in the party quiet. If he can't do that, he won't last long. And gay marriage -- if he calls a vote on it, it's only because he plans on losing and wants to placate the wing nuts in the party. It ain't gonna be Jesusland North.
Second, the generational soul-searching for the Liberals. Martin is out, but who's gonna replace him? Personally, I never liked Martin all that much -- too far to the right. I would like to see more of a Trudeau type, but I'm not counting on it. I would really like Sheila Copps, a left-leaning Liberal to run again.
Third, will our Krazy Konservative Komrades in the states travel north to help? Apparently, they already have provided advice, possibly even money. What's interesting with the conservative movement is that it has an international flavor, a desire to spread to other nations. This, of course, is most visible with Canada. American conservatives have been gleeful at the possibility of friendly terrain in the north. Yet another similarity that the conservative movement has with communism and fascism. . . .
Fourth, whither NDP? Although they don't hold the balance of power, it will be interesting to see what happens. If the Liberals take a lurch to the right in their next leader, the NDP may be poised for even greater growth.
Another question is what the Con win signifies. Is it mere sound and fury for naught? It seems like a familiar story in Canadian politics: the liberals are in power under a successful PM who wins a few majority governments. The Liberal leader steps down, Liberal scandals and/or arrogance comes to light, the Conservatives win. It happened with Diefenbaker in 1958 and Mulroney in 1984. The only outlier is Clark in 1979, and he lasted all of nine months. Pretty much every Conservative election win since WWII has been a reaction to a change in the liberal leadership; Clark is the only exception, and that had a lot to do with Trudeau's imposition of wage and price controls, contrary to his campaign promise, and the endemic stagflation of the era.
At any rate, What it doesn't seem to signify is a real and lasting shift to the right, along the lines of what happened in the US in 1980 and 1994.
Cross-posted at The Ravines