FRANK McKENNA TO THE LIBERAL PARTY: "HAVING ESCAPED THE TRAP, I WON'T GO BACK FOR THE CHEESE."
With this announcement, what last week appeared to be a headlong rush to crown McKenna as Paul Martin's natural successor as the twelfth leader of the Liberal Party of Canada came to a screeching halt. Liberal Leader is not a trivial position. As the party that has governed Canada for over seventy of the past 100 years, it has earned its nickname as "The Natural Governing Party." With Canada's new Conservative government shakily sitting 32 seats short of a majority in the House of Commons, whoever replaces Martin is likely poised to be the next Prime Minister of Canada - the giant killer, who will stick a stake in the heart of Stephen Harper's dreams to remold the Tories as a SoCon shell.
So who does McKenna's decision benefit?
In addition to McKenna, others who have taken their names out of consideration include Health Minister
Ujjal Dosanjh (Vancouver South, BC), Industry Minister
David Emerson (Vancouver Kingsway, BC), Finance Minister
Ralph Goodale (Wascana, SK), and former Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Affairs Minister
John Manley.
THE FRONT-RUNNERS
Here, in my opinion, are the serious contenders - and what I believe will be their strengths and weaknesses. I have divided the list into Francophones and Anglophones. I think that it is important to remember that the Liberal Party has alternated between these two groups in selecting their leaders since Sir Wilfrid Laurier was elected leader in 1887. If that custom holds, Francophone candidates will have an advantage going in. They are:
Martin Cauchon
Cauchon was MP for Outremont, QC from 1993 to 2004. In that capacity, he served as Revenue Minister from 1999 to 2002 and Justice Minister from 2002 to 2004. As Justice Minister, he argued forcefully for the recognition of same-sex marriage and the decriminalisation of cannabis. When asked whether he had ever used the substance in the past, he answered, "Yes - of course!" Cauchon was closely allied with former Prime Minister Jean Chretien, and strenuously opposed Paul Martin's bid for leadership. He is considered to be on the left of the party. Strengths: His progressive background and articulateness in French and English will serve him well. Weaknesses: He may be considered to have been too partisan a footsoldier in the divisive Martin-Chretien wars that preceded Chretien's retirement. He has also been out of active politics for two years.
Denis Coderre
Coderre has been the MP for Bourassa,QC since 1997, serving in both the Chretien and Martin governments first as Immigration Minister, then as President of the Queen's Privy Council. He was dropped from cabinet after the 2004 election. Strengths: He proved an able defender of the government, and handelled several administrative responsibilities well. Weaknesses: He has a relatively low profile, and is certainly not stirring on the stump.
Stephane Dion
Dion is an economist, having served as a senior fellow of the Brookings Institute prior to his political career. He was elected to the Montreal-area riding of St. Laurent-Cartierville in a 1996 by-election. He was immediately appointed President of the Privy Council, and in 2003 became Intergovernmental Affairs Minister. In that capacity, he was the moving force behind the Chretien government's controversial "Clarity Act," which was designed to impede the chances of Quebec sovereignty. With Martin's succession, Dion - who was closely associated with Chretien - was dropped from cabinet, but he returned the following year as Environment Minister. There, he became best known for guiding last year's Montreal conference on climate change from deadlock and failure to a successful preliminary agreement. Strengths: An extremely capable, intelligent, and teancious minister. Weaknesses: He is widely loathed in Quebec for his role in getting the Clarity Act and preparing the brief for the Supreme Court case that ruled Quebec could not unilaterally declare independence. He is also an uninspiring speaker (at least in English), and has as much charisma as a piece of toast (if that matters).
...And now...the Anglophones:
Michael Ignatieff
Ignatieff is the newly elected MP for the Toronto-area riding of Etobicoke-Lakeshore. A widely-known historian and author, Ignatieff was until recently Carr Professor of the Practice of Human Rights and Director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy at the John F. Kennedy School of Government Harvard University. He has seven honorary doctorates to his name. Strengths: Well, that's obvious. Weaknesses: He is widely perceived as an aloof, pedantic prick and Canadians are not very fond of white knights coming back from "away" to fix us. This feeling was augmented by the fact that Ignatieff was "parachuted" into his riding, rather than coming up through the local riding association. Additionally, he has zero political experience and has paid no dues.
Belinda Stronach
Stronach is the former president and CEO of Magna International, and the scion of Canada's economically powerful Stronach family. She unsuccessfully ran for the Conservative leadership as a Red (i.e., socially liberal) Tory in 2004, but was elected as a Conservative MP for Newmarket-Aurora, ON that year. The Conservative stance on marriage equality finally convinced Stronach that a progressive voice was no longer welcome in her party (she has a gay son), and she crossed the floor to join the Liberal caucus. Martin immediately appointed her Human Resources Minister with responsibility for "democratic renewal." She won re-election as a Liberal in her riding. Strengths: She is articulate, fluently bilingual, and presents well in the media. Also, she would have some cachet as being the leading female contender for the leadership. Weaknesses: Her own political roots are shallow, and her defection has left questions about her reliability and depth of loyalty.
Brian Tobin
Tobin has a long political pedigree. He served twice in the House of Commons - first as the MP for Humber-Port au Port-St. Barbe, NL from 1980 to 1996, then as MP for Bonavista-Trinity-Conception, NL from 2000 to 2002. In-between, from 1996-2000, he served as Premier of the Province of Newfoundland & Labrador. When the Liberals were elected government in 1993, Tobin became Fisheries Minister, during which he distinguished himself for his aggressive stance against foreign overfishing within Canada's 200-mile nautical economic zone. In 1996, he resigned to become Newfoundland Liberal Leader and Premier of that province, during a time of unusual economic prosperity. He suddenly left that position to return to federal politics, re-joining Chretien's cabinet as Industry Minister. Just as suddenly, he quit federal politics - some say out of frustration over the impending leadership of Paul Martin. Strengths: Still remembered fondly as "Captain Canada" for his aggressive stance against Spanish overfishing and his organisation of pro-federalist rallies during the 1995 Quebec referendum. He has charisma to share. Weaknesses: He has definitely proven to be fickle - resigning suddenly three times to do something different. He is also considered by some to be too strident and lacking in sufficient gravitas to be leader.
OTHERS WHO ARE OUTSIDE POSSIBILITIES
Maurizio Bevilacqua - MP for Vaughan, ON and former junior minister
Scott Brison - MP for Kings--Hants, NS and outgoing Minister of Public Works and Government Services
Ken Dryden - MP for York Centre, ON and outgoing Minister of Social Development
Anne McLellan - outgoing MP for Edmonton Centre, AB and outgoing Deputy Prime Minister of Canada
Stephen Owen - MP for Vancouver Quadra, BC, and outgoing Minister of Public Works
Bob Rae - former NDP Premier of Ontario and former NDP MP for Broadview--Greenwood, ON
Allan Rock - current ambassador to the United Nations, former MP for Etobicoke Centre, ON and former Health minister
Joe Volpe - MP for Eglinton--Lawrence, ON and outgoing Minister of Citizenship and Immigration
YOUR TURN!
What do you think of McKenna's decision? Who do you think has a good chance? An outside chance? No chance?