The Commonwealth of Virginia and the Virginia Democratic Party had a very big night last night. Obviously, Tim Kaine responded to the State of the Union, and has received mixed reviews, which surprises me not so much because of the content of the criticisms but by the vehemence on both sides of the issue. The netroots critique ranges from the superficial (the eyebrows) to the relevant (the content and presentation) to the downright insulting (Religion is not a Democratic virtue)
Simultaneously, there was a special election in Virginia where Democrats picked up yet another Senate seat with Mark Herrings win in Loudon County. This was one of the exurb counties that were the big story in the 2005 election, and I feel pretty justified in saying to those out there who felt the Nov. elections were likely a freak occurance due to Warner's popularity (currently 1034%) or a reaction to Bush's low popularity, this should be a wake-up call. If we're winning state Senate seat's and specials, this is probably an actual shift in momentum. Loudon is trending blue. This, in terms of national politics, is pretty much a seismic shift.
First, let's deal with the State of the Union, or rather Tim Kaine's response to it. The consensus I'm getting from fellow Virginia politicos is that this was not Tim's best speech. Occasionally, you saw a little bit of what we here in Virginia saw on the stump, but the cameras obviously freaked him out a little bit. Those pauses weren't natural. This is a shame because Kaine is usually a very glossy and natural speaker who has particular talent for sounding smart without sounding condescending about it. And I think you could see that from parts of the speech.
Next, the religion thing, and the predictable furor surrounding a Democrat talking about faith. This really does infuriate me, as a proud member of the Christian Left, because, well, my faith is a very important part of what I believe and why I'm here, not because I'm "Middle America" but because it's my belief structure. Likewise, Tim Kaine's experience as a missionary was as defining a moment in his life as was John Kerry's trip to Vietnam. The reason he talks about it is because at the bedrock of his values and beliefs lies that trip to Honduras, and to avoid talking about that because it could be seen as "pandering" is not only foolish, but it avoids talking about why we're liberal. Why we believe what we believe. Why are you a Democrat? Answer that question without saying any form of "because I'm not a Republican" or "because Republicans are bad". What are your Democratic principles? It doesn't have to be religion. For Tim Kaine, it is. But you better have an answer to that question. And to ridicule someone else for having an answer and saying that it's wishy-washy is pretty damn absurd.
Anyway, I liked the content. I liked the focus on action as opposed to promises. I liked the opposition of Bush saying "We should..." and Democrats saying "We have..." Plus, as a Virginia Democrat, you tend to be a preacher about what's been going on in our Commonwealth, where there has been a sharp and deliberate shift in the electorate from gimmicks and quick answers to competency, starting with Mark Warner (approval rating: 2798%).
But onto to the Special Election, which honestly is a bigger deal in my mind.
If Virginia wanted to send a message to the world that they were unhappy with the president and sure as all hell liked Mark Warner despite his (D) status, then they would've done so in November and gone about their way, resuming Red State status. Despite my sig., one election does not a color shift make. Hence the importance of this Special. This legitimately recognizes a fundamental change in the voting patterns of the outer suburbs in Virginia. We have some of our most socially conservative delegates and Senators being kicked to the curb in exchange for Democrats who preach competancy. The Republican opponent of Herring was the son-in-law of the author of a bill to ban the sale of contraceptives on Virginia college campuses, the pugnacious Dick Black. Combine this with Poisson's Loudon win against Marshall in November, another conservative fiend, and you have yourselves a distinct blue trend in Virginia's fastest growing county.
If Republicans lose the exurbs, they lose their majority. It is as simple as that. And I'm not alone in this assessment:
There's clearly strategic political intent behind trying to build the 2006 GOP legislative strategy around the suburbs: More than half of U.S. voters live in the 'burbs, and these places, formerly Republican strongholds, have been trending Democratic in recent years.
As Fred Barnes pointed out in the Weekly Standard earlier this month, what Kirk calls the "inburbs" of major cities -- as opposed to the more-distant exurbs -- are increasingly Democratic.
Kirk's district was represented in the 1960s by current Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and for two decades by GOP Rep. John Porter. Kirk carried it with 64 percent of the vote in 2004 -- far better than the 47 percent President Bush won in the district.
.......
Of the 14 districts held by GOP representatives but carried by Democratic nominee John Kerry (Mass.) in 2004, virtually all are suburban. At the same time, there are 12 suburban districts held by Democrats that Bush carried. So it's not a stretch to say that suburban voters will decide who controls the House after this year's elections.
So when Tim Kaine says, look at Virginia, in the State of the Union, it's not just because it sure is a nice state (it's a Commonwealth, and lovely, by the way), but because my home district, the definition of a upper-middle class Republican stronghold, voted for Tim Kaine by 57%. This might just be one Senate seat, but to me, it really means that the suburbs have had it with social conservatism, though this does not necessarily mean firebrand liberalism is what they want to replace it. These suburbs want a middle ground. They don't want to replace a partisan with a partisan. They want to replace someone who will put social causes and pandering to the religious right over the needs of the people with someone who will sit down and help them pay their insurance. And that's why Tim Kaine might've been the right person to deliver the response. Because we can win in Loudon County. And that puts seats in play that haven't been on anybody's radar screen for years.