Reading all this stuff about the our "leads" in the
generic congressional ballot got me wondering, how would this work on a district-by-district basis. Using the
Pew Poll and its regional data, I projected a swing in each district.
My methods on more after the flip.
I totaled up the vote totals from '04 and got a percent margin. In the midwest, the total vote was
13,405,393 for the Dems to the GOP's
14,345,259, meaning we got 48.31% to 51.69%, a margin of -3.38.
In the Pew Generic Ballot for the Midwest, it has us up 53-39. I allocated the undecideds evenly (although I'm thinking undecideds would break for us), making the margin 57-43 us, a swing of 8.38% to our side.
My definition of "Midwest" is: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota,
Then, using each district's data, I swung the vote 8.38% to our side.
For example, in Illinois-06, Christine Cegelis recieved 105,367 to Henry Hyde's 131,450, a margin of -11.01%.
After the swing, however, the predicted margin for '06 is -2.63%.
I then included one last factor: open seats. For a seat that was open in 2004, I added a margin of 5.00% to the predicted margin. For a seat that will be open in 2006, I subtracted 5.00% to the predicted margin.
So in Illinois-06, after the open seat swing, you get a margin of 2.37%, a pick-up for us.
Through this method, I identified 4 predicted pick-ups for us:
IN-09, Mike Sodrel, 7.90%
MN-06, Mark Kennedy, 5.29%
IL-06, Henry Hyde, 2.37%
IA-01, Jim Nussle, 1.03%
Hyde is retiring, Nussle is running for Iowa Governor, and Kennedy is running for Minnesota Senate.
I also identified 7 "Other" close seats:
IN-08, John Hostettler, -0.63%
IN-02, Chris Chocola, -1.37%
OH-04, Mike Oxley, -3.83%
MI-11, Thad McCotter, -7.86%
NE-01, Jeff Fortenberry, -8.11%
MN-02, John Kline, -7.23%
IL-11, Jerry Weller, -8.97%
Of these, Oxley is retiring.
Regardless of what the D-trip thinks, I think we should target these seats, becuase we have a real opportunity at picking these up. If we want our 218, these seats should surely be on the target list.
Of course, my methods aren't perfect. The swing will not be the same in each district, the candidates will be different, GOTV ops, and fundraising, as well as the political climate and other district-specific conditions(like Bob Ney in OH-18). But it's a start. I haven't figured out to quantatively include those yet.
OH-11 is not included; Stephanie Tubbs Jones didn't have an opponent in '04. If you want the raw data, just email me...its one gigantic Excel file.
Next: The Northeast. I'll analyze each district after I finish the other 3 regions.