I attempted to analyze the generic Congressional Ballot poll from Pew and what it means.
I detailed my methods and covered the Midwest here. The Northeast is here
I focused on the rest of the country today, as in not the Midwest and not the Northeast.
As I said yesterday: I assume the distrct-by-district swings will be the same. This is a perhaps flawed assumption, but it is reliable enough to give us a baseline. If you feel this assumption is flawed to the point that my diary is pointless, feel free NOT to read on.
Again, of course, my methods aren't perfect. The swing will not be the same in each district, the candidates will be different, GOTV ops, and fundraising, as well as the political climate and other district-specific conditions. But it's a start. I haven't figured out to quantatively include those yet.
Results on the flip.
The West first: California, Washington, Oregon, Alaska, Hawaii, Nevada, Idaho, Montana, Kansas, Oklahoma, Colorado, Arizona, Utah, New Mexico, and Wyoming.
In 2004, we won this region 11,806,009 to 11,300,818, a margin of 505,191, or 2.18%.
Results from CA-22 and CA-38 are not included; neither Bill Thomas nor Grace Napolitano had a challenger in '04.
Also of Note: We had no Democratic candidates in AZ-03, AZ-06, CA-41, and KS-01 in 2004.
The Generic Ballot Poll has us up here 56-44, a swing of 4.91% to our side.
Unfortunately...I calculate only 1 pickup.
Pickups:
CO-07, Bob Beauprez's Open Seat, 1.75%
The Close ones: Projected Margin <10%
NV-03, Jon Porter, -9.91%
WY-01, Barbara Cubin, -8.77%
CA-26, David Dreier, -6.63%
NV-02, Jim Gibbons' Open Seat, -5.60%
WA-08, Dave Reichert, -4.98%
ID-01, Butch Otter's Open Seat, -4.87% (Not actually happening).
NM-01, Heather Wilson, -3.97%
CO-04, Marilyn Musgrave, -1.72%
AZ-08, Jim Kolbe's Open Seat, -1.29%
CA-50, Duke Cunningham's Former Seat, -.89%
As you can see, our best chances are in many of the Open Seat's left by retiring (or resigning) Republican incumbents...Francine Busby has a pretty good shot of winning in CA-50.
Missing the Cut, Margin < 12%, 1 Seat
KS-02, Jim Ryun, -10.41%
It is Kansas, but Nancy Boyda made it close here once before and could very well do it again.
Defense, 6:
HI-02, Ed Case's Open Seat, 11.29%
OR-05, Darlene Hooley, 13.91%
CO-03, John Salazar, 14.01%
CA-20, Jim Costa, 15.87%
KS-03, Dennis Moore, 16.27%
UT-02, Jim Matheson, 18.03%
And now the South:
We got pummeled here in 2004. We won the 2 regions by a decent margin: The West 51-49, and the Northeast by a whopping 55-45. We lost here, however, 11,774,590 to 15,951,719, a margin of 4,177,129, a margin of -14.88%. The South is also the largest region, at 143 seats.
The generic ballot has us down here 53.5-46.5 (after undecideds are split evenly).
(Data from Georgia is not included, as it recently underwent DeLaymander v2.0.)
We also failed miserably in fielding candidates here: leaving TX-10, FL-21, MS-01, MS-03, OK-03, OK-04, SC-01, TX-03, TX-13, VA-01, VA-07, AL-06, FL-04, FL-07, FL-09, FL-24, FL-25, KY-05, SC-03, TN-07, VA-06, TX-14, and LA-04 all to the Republicans.
Pickups, 1:
LA-07, Charles Boustany, 2.45%
Drops(I can't believe I had to include this):
LA-03, Charlie Melancon, -9.00% (This is even more likely, given the effects of Katrina).
Close Ones:
TX-02, Ted Poe, -8.71%
NC-08, CAFTA Flipflopper Robin Hayes, -7.06%
FL-13, Cruella De Vil Katherine Harris' Open Seat, -6.57%
TX-32, Pete Sessions, -6.48%
NC-11, Charles Taylor, -5.77%
OK-05, Ernie Istook's Open Seat, -4.00%(I doubt it).
Missing the Cut:
KY-04, Geoff Davis, -11.67% (but Ken Lucas is running again!)
VA-02, Thelma Drake, -11.24%
TX-22, Tom DeLay, -10.55% (it'll be closer than this).
Defense:
TX-17, Chet Edwards, 7.80%
FL-11, Jim Davis' Open Seat, 10.28%
TN-04, Lincoln Davs, 15.49%
The Country Map (without city insets):