It's been about a week since James Webb declared himself a) a Democrat and b) a candidate for Senate against George Allen, which means that it is more than about time I added my input to a greatly changed Virginian political landscape.
I've been waiting for a new poll on the race to come out, and finally, one has, and it confirms my suspicions that Allen's support was soft and based on the lack of a better alternative. I feel this should come as no surprise considering he how he was polling against Ben Affleck. The state party has decided on a June 13 primary as opposed to a nominating convention, not surprising considering the state party (translation--Warner et. al.) are taking a very neutral stance. Don't let those initial endorsements of Miller fool you, they were given when he was the sole candidate, and while I have no doubt they were genuine, Webb's entrance is by no means unwelcome to many in the state party apparatus.
I'm not yet anywhere close to the point of picking a dog in this race. Originally, although still non-committed, my sympathy leaned towards Harris Miller, for the following reasons:
- Deep, cavernous pockets, not just his own, but also those of this friends. He is well liked by the Northern Virginian tech/upperclass communities. They have nothing but heartfelt warmth towards him. It's actually a bit touching.
- Good staff, all of whom seem destined for a Warner 2008 campaign. Other people disagree, but I am a strong believer that the staff make the race.
- He has a history of faithfully serving the party. This matters to me. Its easy to get excited about a neophyte with a claim to fame, but party history is probably a better indicator of ability to navigate the political waters and to reflect the opinions that we like to assume all neophytes have. They are generally battle-hardened and know what they're doing, even if sometimes less charismatic. This isn't nearly a steadfast rule, but deserves more credit than it is generally given.
- The "he's linked to Diebold" charge is crap, which I feel I need to mention now before it is inevitably brought up in the comments. He's endorsed paper trails for electronic ballots, and beyond that, I am simply not a conspiracy theorist, and feel entirely comfortable with my electronic ballot being counted. Even if I was a conspiracy nut, Democrats currently and have been running the elections in Virginia since 2001. So where's the beef?
So that's my case for Miller. That being said, here are my equally important hesitations:
- Even if he is genuinely well-liked, I have met few people truly 'revved' over a Miller candidacy, and as such, it is hard to get excited that Miller will WIN, as opposed to just take a chunk out of Allen's warchest. On the other hand, Webb's support is intense (almost too intense).
- This is not a great year to run as a wealthy high-powered lobbyist. It's unfortunate because lobbying is not de facto problematic, and is beneficial to the system in many ways. And because of any state, Virginia might be the most forgiving of the lobbyist title, but especially when Democrats have decided to hit the culture of corruption reform the system theme, its a bad time to have that occupation.
- I'm not going to get into the outsourcing of tech jobs debate because the Northern Virginian tech community is an anomaly and the standards of outsourcing politics really just don't apply. But the fact that I had to write that is a drawback in itself.
Likewise, here were my hesitations about Webb, which initially inclined me towards Miller.
- Until moderate Republicans were chased from the party, Webb was very much a Republican. Not a Lincoln Chafee Republican. Not a Zell Miller Democrat, but a real, live Republican who stood for very Republican, non-liberal things. The fact is, due to the polarization of the current administration's policies, Iraq and foreign affairs in particular, many independents are Democrats by default, not by ideology. Does this mean we should chase them from our ranks to whither in the political wilderness? Of course not, but les we forget, single-issues aside, questions need to be answered.
- Where is the money coming from? With due respect to the folks at Raising Kaine who have worked especially hard to get Webb in this race, multi-million donors you are not. I know it is unpopular to be pragmatic. But Schumer has already publicly stated that the Virginia race is a non-priority to the DSCC, which is a good decision considering the other pick-up opportunities around the nation. If it heats up, perhaps a small segment of support will be re-alloted, but only if a candidate can generate funds and heat himself, and one poll does not alter the national goals. For a candidate to be a burden on the DSCC is a disservice to the party in our attempt to reclaim the Senate.
- That nagging endorsement of Allen in 2000 against Chuck Robb because, this is true, Allen was 'better on national security.' I shit you not. Now, I can spin this. In fact, watch me do so: The fact that Webb is willing to look beyond partisan strip for the safety and betterment of our nation speaks to his character and strength as a leader on National security. He thinks of our nation, not of a party. In this respect, George Allen has been a tremendous disappointment. His betrayal of Webb's trust and faith by putting national party above country and security has compelled Sec. Webb into this race to reclaim sanity in our National Security practices. Sec. Webb has reached the conclusion that if Allen and the Republican party can't, than it is up to men like Webb to get the job done. Still, I'd rather I didn't have anything to spin in the first place, and as a Democrat who vividly remembers the bitterness of the Robb race, I cannot say that it does not leave a tinge in my mouth.
But here is why I recently have come to the conclusion that Webb's candidacy is quite possibly the real deal, and am back in pure indecision land.
- The funding question was in part answered by Former Senator Bob Kerrey, who essentially promised to lend Webb HIS fundraising base out of New York. We'll have to wait for the numbers, but this eases much of my initial concern. Expect me to be upset if those 1Q numbers aren't good. Kerrey's voucher also alleviates some of my concerns regarding his general ideology.
- People really do get passionate about Jim Webb. And this is worth a damn. People seem to think he can win. And not just the partisans on the left, but MSM reporters and even some of my conservative counterparts. Well, even the impression of that can do wonders to someone's funding and to someone's numbers. People like to vote for winners. It's a Known Fact.
- The military is absolutely thrilled, and you discount the military's influence in Virginia at your own peril. Virginia, for those of you unaware, is heavily populated with military and defense industry. You have the Hampton Roads area in the Tidewater (Norfolk, Newport News, VA Beach, etc.), Penatagon and related industries in Northern Virginia, and bases scattered across the rest. (Yes, yes, and VMI. I haven't forgotten). Virginia was actually considered swing in 2004 until the Swiftboaters took away the military vote. And the military votes. This is a huge factor that is difficult to judge, but potentially could swing the race.