I just thought it was a good time to post my early predictions for 06. Theres just too many house seats out there, so Im gonna go ahead and just focus on the senate.
I have a very mixed feeling about these upcomming elections. I think we've got great candidates for the most part, but I'm upset that we havn't managed to be more competetive in states like Arizona. What scares me the most at this point: Too many people are ignorantly flocking to the Democrat with more money. This is a BIG mistake that exists primarily amongst the insider betlway class. Anyways, here you have it:
Pennsylvania-
Likely Matchup: Casey (Dem nominee) vs. Santorum (incumbent)
Result: Dem pickup
Casey is a strong candidate running against a weak Republican that is way too conservative for PA. Need I say more? True, Casey ran a horrible campaign for gov a few years ago but I just see that as a good learning experience for any politican running for high office. Admittedly, I was saying the same thing about Erksine Bowles last year who ran for John Edwards open seat after loosing to Liddy Dole a few years earlier. And we all know what happened to poor Mr Bowles...
Montana
Likely Matchup: Morrison (Dem nominee) vs. Burns (incumbent
Result: Dem pickup
I'm in love with John Tester. Hopefully, the "Schweitzer Revolution," (if you can call it that), will produce many more prairie style populists like John Tester. His personality and campaign rhetoric should be a model for any Democrat running for office here in middle America. Tester, however, is the obvious victim of money powered politics. If only there was a way to completely get rid of money in our political system.
Morrison, however, is a solid candidate. Not the charasmatic new aged populist like Tester is, but definitely solid. If elected, he will probably be more progressive than Montana's other senator, Democrat Max Baucus. Morrison has secured endorsements from most establishment Democrats and is way ahead in fund raising. Right now at least, it looks like he's gonna get the nod. Plus, Conrad Burns is an uncharasmatic, corrupt, overtly racist Republican who is thankfully seeking reelction. Montana's at large rep Denny Rehberg is pretty popular from what I hear and would be hard to beat.
Ohio
Likely Matchup: Sherrod Brown (Dem nominee) vs. Mike Dewine (incumbent)
Result- Really a complete tossup, but I'd have to sadly say Dewine will hold on
The most unfortunate aspect of this race is that Sherrod Brown will no longer be a member of the Ohio delegation. Brown is one of my favorite representatives in Washington (Ohio's Dem reps are just outstanding in general). Even if he beats Dewine, the house is loosing one of its strongest advocates for socioeconomic justice. My infatuation with Brown started during the CAFTA debate when against all odds, he led the charge to nearly defeat a the first major free trade bill in a while. Brown was so affective, Delay and Hastert had to resort to paying off some of their fellow Repubs which ultimately led to a 217-215 nailbiter. Anyways, running Brown is just too much of a risk.
Meanwhile, we HAD the perfect scenario. Brown was wisely going to stay in the house as grassroots hero and Iraq vet Paul Hackett was going to run. Not only do I think Hackett was more electable statewide, the senate could really use an Iraq war vet to take it to chickenhwaks like Bill Frist and the bunch. For some reason, Brown jumped into the race after publically stating he would not run and the whole thing became a circus from that point on. At least with Hackett dropping out we're avoiding an unnecessarily ugly primary.
As for Dewine, he has been slickly moving further and further towards the center in recent months. Ohio is a state that has suffered more than most states from the irresponsible Republican economic policies. Its on Brown to run a good campaign and expose DEwine for the corporate thief he really is.
A list of more pickup oppertunities to come later.