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As I look at the TX-28 primary results the thing that jumps out at me is Ciro's turnout drops in the non-Bexar counties this year compared to 2004.  Drop below the fold for the analysis and why this race has become a case study for the need to fight everywhere.

Here are some comparisons for Ciro (using Kos's number from 2004 and the Sec of State numbers for the counties that have all precincts reporting):

Ciro Rodriguez

County       2004           2006    Vote Change

Atascosa     1,948           901      -1,047
Bexar       10,824        10,622       -202
Comal           664           141        -532
Frio            2,014           958      -1,056
Guadalupe  1,573           927        -646
Hays            725            808         +83
LaSalle         833            325        -508
McMullen        47             52           +5
Wilson       2,534          1,503     -1,031

Ciro's numbers dropped over 1000 votes in each of the south suburbs counties of San Antonio and dropped over 500 votes in the two northeast suburban counties of San Antonio and the middle county of LaSalle.

Cuellar's numbers are pretty stable or showing a slight decrease in the rest of the counties except for two small counties (big increases in McMullen and big decreases in Comal), LaSalle county where turnout for both dropped, and Bexar where strangely Cuellar picked up about 200 votes which have all there precincts reporting:

Henry Cuellar

County       2004          2006      Vote Change

Atascosa     1,146         1,149        +3
Bexar         2,737         2,936     +199
Comal           252            79       -173
Frio            1,720         1,426      -294
Guadalupe    587            553        -34
Hays             400           470       +70
LaSalle       1,112           661       -451
McMullen         71           288      +217
Wilson        1,376         1,198      -178

As we have talked about the TX-28 race for the past couple weeks the focus has been on turnout in San Antonio's Bexar County (and it seemed to me, though those on the ground can correct me, to the exclusion of the smaller counties).  If in fact the effort for turnout in the smaller counties was sacificed for a focus on Bexar that looks to be the strategic decision where this race ras lost.  The drop in turnout for Ciro in the five suburban counties of San Antonio is enough to have pushed this into a runoff.  This race looks like a perfect example of why we need to compete everywhere.  

Originally posted to evcoren on Wed Mar 08, 2006 at 04:40 AM PST.

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