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Boehlert is expected to announce his retirement shortly.  The story can be found here.

Boehlert is one of the longest serving Representatives currently in the House.  He serves an upstate NY district that leans Republican, although not by much.  I grew up in this area and I think a strong Democratic candidate could do very well here.  Most of Boehlert's recent opposition has been relatively weak.  Are there any good candidates in the area?

Originally posted to aym on Fri Mar 17, 2006 at 12:02 PM PST.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Press conference at 3 (0+ / 0-)

    I'm not in the area though.  Any locals catch it?

    •  Bye Bye Boehlert (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Hopefully he does retire. Because we have a great chance to win there.

      "Our country right or wrong. When right, to be kept right; when wrong, to be put right" - Carl Schurz

      by RBH on Fri Mar 17, 2006 at 12:01:32 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  From what I remember... (0+ / 0-)

        he's been a solid person in support of science and choice. His speech against the "Energy" bill was an impassioned opposition to a boondoggle.

        My great-uncle was an friend of his from the old days.

        I can see why, given the climate in the GOP, that he'd retire at this point.

        "Computer. End holographic program...Computer? Computer?"

        by kredwyn on Fri Mar 17, 2006 at 12:37:53 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Wow! I never thought that would happen! (0+ / 0-)

    I grew up in Rome myself, and had visiting Boehlert's office on several occasions when I worked for the National Park Service at Fort Stanwix and later when I was at the EPA Headquarters in Washington.

    As Republicans go, he could have been much worse.  But he didn't vote against the Delay faction nearly as often as he might have.

    Let's hope Hillary's coattails can pull a lot of new Democrats into office Upstate!

    "It's not selling out if you don't get paid, okay? We're not whores. When you do it for free, that's just slutty." -Wonkette -6.38/ -4.21

    by wonkydonkey on Fri Mar 17, 2006 at 12:03:24 PM PST

  •  good, glad to hear it! Do we have any (0+ / 0-)

    strong Democratic candidates up there?

    James M Joiner or

    by jmsjoin on Fri Mar 17, 2006 at 12:05:26 PM PST

    •  Currently running (roughly in order of strength) (0+ / 0-)

      Oneida County District Atty Michael Arcuri (probably the favorite), Former Cortland Mayor Bruce Tytler, Atty. Leon Koziol, College Prof. Les Roberts, and University Employee Brian Goodell.

  •  Huge (5+ / 0-)

    This race should shoot up to the top 10 pickup opportunities.  This is a true swing district, which Boehlert fitted well.  There is already a winger in the race for the GOP (who was planning to challenge Boehlert in the primary) and at least three serious Dems.

    The district went 51-49 (2-party vote) for Bush in 2000 and 53-47 for him in 2004.  For comparison's sake, the Kolbe seat (AZ-08), which is one of the top opportunities we have, gave Bush 52% and 54%.

  •  More (0+ / 0-)

    An e-mail sent this week to friends of the congressman, a copy of which was obtained by The Associated Press, asked them to attend the event. The subject line of the e-mail read: “Thank you Sherry!”

    “Please show your support for Congressman Boehlert by thanking him for his 42 years of public service and an amazing 24 years of service in Congress!” the message said.

    “Having our friends attend will mean the world to Sherry and Marianne,” the message added, referring to Boehlert's wife.

    “They don't hold a thank-you party for someone who is running again,” said one top New York Republican who is involved in high-level planning to retain the congressional seat without Boehlert. The Republican spoke only on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak about Boehlert's future.

    No investigation? Move to impeach.

    by Paleo on Fri Mar 17, 2006 at 12:06:12 PM PST

  •  Info on this CD and candidates.... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Superribbie, Los Diablo
    • Hotline 3/16 notes: â€oeThe central-NY district is competitive: President Bush won here with 53% in '04, but barely won a 48% plurality in '00. Despite its slight GOP tilt, the constant presence of a Conservative party candidate frequently siphoned votes from Boehlert -- and could again if a moderate GOPer wins the nomination. […] The statewide landscape should help Dems in the CD, with possible landslides in both the GOV and SEN races. They're encouraged by Oneida Co. DA Michael Arcuri's candidacy. Among GOPers, ex-Seneca Falls Mayor Brad Jones already announced, touting his conservative credentials. More moderate potential GOP candidates include state Sens. James Seward, whose district overlaps much of NY 24, and Raymond Meier, who sponsored a state bill banning all perks from lobbyists. If Boehlert retires, GOPers need a candidate who appeals to all wings of the party.”
    • CQ: A Boehlert retirement could open a hot contest
    • Take Back NYâ€TMs 24th
    • Dem(s): Oneida County DA Michael Acuri, ex-Cortland Mayor Bruce Tytler
    • GOPer(s): ex-Seneca Falls Mayor Brad Jones

    Visit my blog Penndit. Media, politics, campaigns, and political communications.

    by Newsie8200 on Fri Mar 17, 2006 at 12:09:22 PM PST

  •  Contenders (0+ / 0-)

    This is a great opportunity.  But it won't be easy as two Republican State Senators are waiting to battle it out.  But the Dems have a couple of strong prospects, particular Mike Arcuri, Oneida County DA.

    No investigation? Move to impeach.

    by Paleo on Fri Mar 17, 2006 at 12:10:12 PM PST

    •  Won't be easy? (0+ / 0-)

      Well, depends on if Bush's approval ratings remain below 30% in New York (Bush got 53% in NY24 while getting around 41% statewide, so he's even in trouble in NY24)

      Watch the Republicans nominate the Conservative to replace Boehlert.

      "Our country right or wrong. When right, to be kept right; when wrong, to be put right" - Carl Schurz

      by RBH on Fri Mar 17, 2006 at 12:17:00 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Approval ratings (0+ / 0-)

        You can't just go by approval ratings.  The Republicans have two things going for them:  this is a Republican leaning district; and they have two state senators as possible nominees who are better known, and cover a wider geographic area in the district, than any of the Democrats.

        No investigation? Move to impeach.

        by Paleo on Fri Mar 17, 2006 at 12:20:49 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Land doesn't vote (0+ / 0-)

          people do.

          I haven't seen the break down, but I am going to guess that Oneida County is the most populated part of NY-24.

          "Our country right or wrong. When right, to be kept right; when wrong, to be put right" - Carl Schurz

          by RBH on Fri Mar 17, 2006 at 12:26:15 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Oneida County (0+ / 0-)

            From what I've been reading, it's likely that the Republicans will coalesce behind Sen. Ray Meier of Oneida County because the other senator does not live in the district, even though his senate seat covers part of the district.

            No investigation? Move to impeach.

            by Paleo on Fri Mar 17, 2006 at 12:40:50 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Maier? (0+ / 0-)

              I actually did a short check on him, granted, it was on Vote-Smart. And I found that he's popular with the NYRTL people.

              Yeah, they'll try to replace pro-choice Boehlert with anti-choice Meier.

              I'm sure there's other differences between Boehlert and Meier.

              "Our country right or wrong. When right, to be kept right; when wrong, to be put right" - Carl Schurz

              by RBH on Fri Mar 17, 2006 at 12:50:49 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  But 2006 Is a Disaster Year for the NYS GOP (0+ / 0-)

          Completely leaving aside Bush's approval ratings in New York State, the GOP is reeling from its inability to field legitimate candidates for any of the top-tier races:  US Senate, Governor, etc.  Witness the newest implosions by Jeanine Pirro in her second incarnation as candidate for Attorney General.

          There's a significant likelihood that Republicans thoughout the state will end up being so discouraged by all the uncompetitiveraces at the top of the ticket that they decide to stay home in droves.

    •  Arent Dems trying to (0+ / 0-)

      win back the NY Senate too?? Could the departure of those two GOP senators help?? At the first least, I think it would cause some headaches.

      The way March MAdness works is you go from 65 to 64 to 32 to 16.. you know, just like Bush's approval -Dave Letterman

      by jj32 on Fri Mar 17, 2006 at 12:24:53 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Redistricting! (0+ / 0-)

    If Democrats win control of NY state legislature (house and senate) as well as governorship they will  redistrict the whole state to their liking which should result in congressional gains for Dems.

    •  Don't we already hold... (0+ / 0-)

      ...19 or 20 of NY's 29 seats?  Is the goal to move the lines enough to bump that up to 24 or 25 through gerrymandering?

      •  Well, (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        I'm not sure how much could be done with NY; the GOP has 9 seats: one on Long Island, one based on Staten Island, one in Westchester County and other NY burbs, and six upstate.  The LI seat is trending Dem anyway and will probably go to us when Peter King retires or faces a tough opponent and moving the lines around on Long Island wouldn't do that much.  I suppose you could throw some more Dems into the 3d from Carolyn McCarthy's 4th, but I'm not sure how much it'd change the equation.

        Staten Island has always had its own seat.  If the Dems had the brass ones to break up that tradition and split the island three ways, matching each part with larger parts of other boroughs across the water, you could take out Fossella.  I doubt that they'd do it, however.

        The Kelly seat in Westchester could be tinkered with, but you have to be somewhat careful; Eliot Engel and Nita Lowey (in the neighboring 17th and 18th) saw their districts get more suburban and more GOP with the last remap due to the desire to retain all of the NYC Reps despite declining population and the loss of a seat statewide.  Lowey in particular now sits in a district that Kerry won only 58-42.

        As for the other 6, perhaps they could be reduced to 4 or 5.  The problem is that GOP strength upstate is pretty well distributed, and Dems McNulty and Hinchey in the 21st and 22d don't have much cushion to spare.  Perhaps with surgical precision, another Dem seat could be carved out of the 24th, 25th, 26th and 29th with more GOPers packed in the others and the 23d.

  •  Throw the bums out!! (0+ / 0-)

    If there's one thing I've learned, it's that life is one crushing defeat after another until you just wish Flanders was dead.

    by ablington on Fri Mar 17, 2006 at 12:33:55 PM PST

  •  It's official! (0+ / 0-)

    No investigation? Move to impeach.

    by Paleo on Fri Mar 17, 2006 at 12:38:10 PM PST

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