A great article in tomorrow's issue of
TIME Magazine overstates the obvious with this title:
Republicans on the Run. More tantalizing is the subhead:
If the midterm elections were held today, top strategists of both parties say privately, the Republicans would probably lose the 15 seats they need to keep control of the House of Representatives.
But buried deeper in the article is a little nugget that requires our attention. Details over the bump.
The entire article is worth any Democrat's time. But if you're looking for Cliff's notes, here's the upshot:
The midterm contests in a President's second term are almost always treacherous, but this time around, Republicans thought it would be different. The 2006 elections, coming on top of their gains in 2002 and 2004, would make history and perhaps even cement a g.o.p. majority in Congress for a generation. George W. Bush's credibility on national security and the states' aggressive gerrymandering, they believed, had turned the vast majority of districts into fortresses for incumbents. But that's not turning out to be the case. In recent weeks, a startling realization has begun to take hold: if the elections were held today, top strategists of both parties say privately, the Republicans would probably lose the 15 seats they need to keep control of the House of Representatives and could come within a seat or two of losing the Senate as well.
The article does a fine job of summarizing the general discontent with the Republican Party by rattling off poll after poll -- about Iraq, about Bush's disapproval rating, about the direction of the country, and on.
But the piece that comes a few paragraphs later is the one we need to focus on:
Republicans can take some comfort in the fact that one general rule about politics remains true, even in this difficult year: as mad as voters are at Washington in general, they are still pretty happy with the individual people who represent them. In the Time poll, 63% of respondents said they approved of the job their local lawmaker was doing. That's one reason Republican strategists say they plan to battle the national tide by localizing individual races. Localizing suggests drawing voters' attention to the issues that most affect them at home. But in practice, to political operatives it means putting an opponent through the shredder. Republicans plan to go after Democratic challengers with every bit of ammunition they can find, from old tax liens to long-ago votes to raise local taxes.
The reasonable interpretation: the negative feelings about BushCo will not necessarily transfer to local candidates. Unless we make it so. And therein lies the Democratic strategy (I hope) for 2006.
In essence, everyone with an (R) after their name who's up for election this November must be attached, by association, to the Bush Administration. The Democratic strategy can be summed up in 3 words: "Guilt By Association."
Not a new concept, obviously. We've heard plenty about this midterm serving as a referendum on the Bush administration. But we have to make that happen at the local level. Here's how:
1. EXAMINE VOTING RECORDS
Republican incumbents must be taken to task for votes that line up with Bush administration policy. Votes that slash social services, increase deficit and debt, compromise the environment, and so on. Now, more than ever, voting records have got to be a major message for local Dems against incumbent (R)s.
2. ASSOCIATION
The transitive property of geometry: If "A" equals "B" and "B" equals "C", then "A" equals "C". Or, more precisely:
IF (CANDIDATE) EQUALS BUSH, AND BUSH EQUALS BAD, THEN (CANDIDATE) EQUALS BAD.
This association has to play out in Dem speeches and advertising messages. We have to show pictures of Bush with the incumbent (R)s. We have to show video of Bush fundraising for them. We have to capture every moment where the (R) has agreed with, espoused, or lobbied for Bush policy.
3. IT COULDN'T HAVE HAPPENED
And here's where it all comes together.
The lack of strategy in Iraq? It couldn't have happened without (candidate).
The record deficit? It couldn't have happened without (candidate).
The poor response to Katrina? It couldn't have happened without (candidate).
The continuation of illegal wiretapping? It couldn't have happened without (candidate).
And on and on.
Bush is at 34-39%. Local lawmakers are at 63%. Turning the local (R)s into Bush is our best chance of winning in '06.