Tuesday, October 3, 2006. 190 days from today. Five weeks, to the day, before a potentially mind-boggling midterm election. Oddly enough, my 41st birthday.
But more ominously, October 3, 2006 could be the date that Coalition deaths in Iraq equal the number of U.S. Deaths on September 11, 2001.
Think about that for a minute. In 190 days, if averages hold, 2,967 Coalition troops will have died in Iraq (92% of them Americans) - the same number of Americans killed on 9/11 by the man we ignored in favor of oil, family revenge and Saddam Hussein.
The other day, when Bush was whining about the media focusing on all the "bad news" from Iraq, my significant other said, half-jokingly, "He thinks the news is bad
now. Wait til we hit the 9/11 milestone in Iraq."
And so I decided to do the math.
Before we go any further, an important disclaimer: obviously, I'm not wishing for this happen. I wish we could get the hell out of Iraq yesterday, with no more death or suffering of our troops or any country's troops. But since that's not going to happen, no matter what I wish or how hard, I feel it's important that we engage in this conservation.
Clearly, there are significant political implications to this benchmark of tragedy. It is, quite possibly, the October surprise that George W. Bush cannot control; the one that bites him and his Republican co-conspirators in their collective lily-white, silver-spoon asses. But before we go there, let's crunch the numbers.
As of today, 2,531 Coalition troops have been killed in Iraq. More than 9 in 10 (2,323) are American; the remainder are half British, half representing over a dozen other Coalition participants.
In the 1104 days since George started his war, an average of 2.29 Coalition troops have died every day.
That means that in 190 days, another 436 troops will have been killed - putting the total at 2,967, the same as September 11th.
All numbers are from the Iraq Coalition Casualties website. A couple of other interesting facts derived from that website:
* US-only deaths in Iraq would total 2,967 on or about January 30, 2007 - right after the 110th Congress is seated
* Of the 17,269 US troops wounded in Iraq, a staggering 54% are returned to duty within 72 hours.
* Number of US troop deaths since Bush's "Bring `em on!" exclamation = 2,116.
I'm very interested in your thoughts on the following:
How would this milestone affect the November election?
Will the media even care?
How will it be spun by the GOP?
Could the Democrats successfully put the focus back on bin Laden?
Will this diary finally pop that vein in Cheney's forehead?
With all that may or may not happen between now and Election Day - Abramoff, Delay, Plame and so on - it is two parts ironic and one part poetic that this milestone could change the entire complexion of voter sentiment.
Or not.
You tell me.
Use the rec button at your discretion to keep the conversation alive.