While there's been a lot of debate in these circles about who the best Democratic nominee will be in '08, who should progressives be cheering for to nab the Republican nomination?
Clearly, the winner of the Republican primary will have as much consequence on the implementation of a liberal agenda as will the Democratic victor. Several factors to consider: Who would be the most tolerable should they, God-forbid, capture the presidency in '08? Who will be the easiest to beat?
My analysis below.
I've ranked 5 of the top candidates on a 1-5 scale on each of these two questions. Low numbers mean the candidate would do much damage to the country if elected/be very difficult to beat. So for example John Doe 4/2 means Dow is fairly moderate but would be a formidable opponent in the general election. I've ranked the candidates starting with who I'm cheering to win the nomination down to who I fear the most.
1. Mitt Romney 4/4
Anyone who's elected governor of Massachusetts can't be too bad, ideologically. While Romney is currently heavily courting the extremist religious faction of his party, I'm inclined to believe it's just necessary primary posturing and underneath the wolf's clothing he's a true moderate. The recent healthcare bill he signed was quite an achievement. If we can get a president who can broker a bipartisan deal on an issue as critical as this one, I don't care what party they're from, if it makes the country better, I'm for it.
Romney is definitely someone we can beat. No foreign policy cred. And, of course, a Mormon. If we can get Russ Feingold nominated, his being a Jew may not be as big of a liability anymore. He's a flipflopper on abortion. And he's from Massachusetts, perhaps the worst state to run a presidential campaign from given its stereotypes.
2. Bill Frist 2/5
Philosophically, President Frist would be a disaster. But I get giddy just thinking about the landslide we'd run up if this guy got nominated. What has he touched in the past few years that hasn't turned into disaster? From Schiavo on, this guy embarrasses himself with everything he does. Anonymous Republicans are increasingly snickering about him in the press and he has nothing to offer moderates. He's a bore on the stump, and has just made a mess of the Senate. Who's gonna trust him running the whole country? Nobody.
3. George Allen 1/3
He's about as conservative as it gets. By and large, he'd be another George Bush. He'd be probably one of the worst presidents of the bunch, but luckily he won't be president. Because nobody wants another George Bush, whether it's a reaction against the chummy good ol' boy or the far right agenda. Eight years has been enough, a good Democrat could squeeze out a victory.
4. Rudy Guliani 3/2
Ideologically he's harder to pin down. Pro-choice, gays and gun control as mayor of a liberal city, but beyond that he seems pretty rock-solid conservative, particularly on foreign policy. I think he's best positioned to pull what Bush did in 2000--flout a couple policies to frame himself as a "compassionate conservative," but then govern on the extremes.
Obviously he's got a lot of political capital amassed in the September 11 aftermath, but by the election it will have been seven years removed. I don't think it's enough to carry him through an entire election. Plus, watching him interviewed on the political shows around the '04 election, he just really did not come across as a likeable guy. When you take his personal issues into account (health and marriages), I think he's beatable. He's gonna have a lot of money though, and I bet he can unite the base around him despite his social stands, and is well positioned as a mayor to tout his many achievements (on crime, education, etc) and also hammer Dems on national security.
5. John McCain 2/2
McCain is the one guy who I think could give the Democrats a run for their money (with the possible exception of Rice, but she's not running. A McCain/Rice ticket though, that could be trouble). As is becoming increasingly clear, he has decided to become a diehard conservative, outflanking virtually all his opponents on the right. I have a hunch that a McCain presidency would be a war presidency, the question being against who rather than if. And just the appalling extent to which he's sold his soul gives me no faith we can count on him for anything, from tax cuts on.
And, better than any other Republican, he can win. Conservatives have been given no reason not to idolize him, but he's maintained the perception that he's a maverick. Someone who can carve out substantial votes from the middle while not alienating the base is dangerous, and he's the only person who can pull it off. And the press are still largely in love with him, which is the most crucial constituency to win over. Our only hope: he peaks too soon--being a frontrunner this early is not a safe seat. And hopefully, people will really start to come down on him for trying to have it both ways (kudos to Jon Stewart for nailing him on this last week), and see him as the sleazy politician he's become. But I hate having to count on the media to call it like it is.