My name is
John Laesch, I am the Democratic Candidate running against Dennis Hastert in Illinois' 14th District.
I served our country as an intelligence analyst in the Middle East for most of my military career and I have a good understanding of Iran's ability to close the Straights of Hormuz and hamper the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf.
I have presented several alternatives to nuclear war and i want to hear what the Kos community thinks.
Iran - the Growing Crisis:
A recent article, The Iran Plan, published by Seymour Hersh in the New Yorker reaffirmed my belief that the current administration is clueless about national security and how to fight terrorism.
While serving as an intelligence analyst in the Middle East, I became the local expert on Iran's military and leadership structure. I departed the region in 1999, but Hersh's article leads me to believe that many of Iran's battle plans and nuclear ambitions have not changed.
Hersh's article outlines President Bush's intentions to execute a pre-emptive strike on Iran using nuclear weapons. The last time America was on the brink of nuclear war was during the Cuban missile crisis and we were fortunate enough to have a diplomatic president, John F. Kennedy at the helm of our country. America can be assured that Mr. Bush does not understand the complexities of terrorism and we should be very concerned that he is anywhere near the launch codes for a nuclear weapon.
Since Bush took office, he has proven that international diplomacy is his greatest weakness. The use of nuclear weapons by any nation would have an enormously destabilizing effect, because it is the last resort militarily. It basically says that the only way that remains for us to deal with this problem is to wipe our enemy off the face of the earth regardless of the consequences. If you think that we've got problems with the world's Muslim community now, just try dropping A-bombs on Iran and see what happens--it will make the war in Iraq look like a high school wrestling match without a coach.
Iran's state-sponsored terrorist group, Hezbollah, has sleeper cells and training camps throughout the world. Based on his past failures to predict the insurgency and growing disdain for a long-term United States presence in Iraq, I am confident that Bush has not thought through the outcomes of a conventional or nuclear war with Iran.
I can tell you exactly what would happen if we were to strike Iran. First, Iranian military forces would shut down the Strait of Hormuz (the choke point through which 35% of the world's oil flows through) and oil prices would skyrocket to a possible $100/barrel. Hezbollah has the ability to project power and export terrorism to America's shores, which could lead to another terrorist attack like 9/11. A greater concern for America and the Middle East would be for Iranians to unite behind their radical president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who beats a nationalist drum with an anti-Western and anti-Israeli message.
Currently, Iran is a divided country. Young Iranians are on-line and curious about the western world while religious and military leaders suppress any democratic ideas and oppose student protests. The youth of this troubled nation represent hope for a Democratic Iranian government and it would be a shame if we let them down by dropping nuclear bombs on their country. An aggressive pre-emptive strike would give Ahmadinejad credibility and draw more support for his radical agenda.
So how do we win in Iraq and Iran?
The only solution to both Iran and Iraq is a diplomatic one. We need more security in our world, but that can only be achieved by working harder on cultivating diplomatic ties with our allies. Diplomacy and economic influence will make our enemies realize that their failure to cooperate in securing a peaceful world means that they will be isolated and reviled. There are better ways to handle the situation than pulling out the nuclear card every time we feel threatened.
Diplomatic approach:
I support the "Nixon goes to China" approach to Iran. The problem with this strategy is that Bush does not have a diplomatic bone in his body. One thing that we could do with a newly elected Congress is to withhold funds for an Iranian offensive until the president replaces Condoleezza Rice and we have a new diplomatic leader in Washington; my recommendation would be Jimmy Carter.
Information warfare:
The other thing that we could do to offset the Iranian propaganda machine, IRNA. The Iranian press frequently misreports U.S. troop strength in the Persian Gulf.
America could hold a press conference on a U.S. ship and invite members of the Arabic media out to the deck of a carrier; reporting our exact troop strength and stating our purpose for being in the Persian Gulf.
We could use the opportunity to openly state our rules of engagement; the United States will not fire until fired upon. It would help ease tensions and stop the escalation of rhetoric. During the Cuban Missile Crisis, powerful statements from both countries heightened tensions between Russia and the United States. The escalation of tensions is very similar to what is happening right now between Iran and the United States.
Respectfully,
John Laesch
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** This has been cross-posted to MyDD.com