Last month I
diaried the politicians angling to replace Blue Dog Democratic Rep. Ed Case (HI-02), who is retiring after four years in the House to launch a suicidal primary challenge against Senator Daniel Akaka (D-HI).
Fundraising numbers have come out, and a the candidate field is mostly set. Democrats have a massive free-for-all primary which will feature both a former gubernatorial candidate and her running mate, three state Senators and a state Representative. Republicans have a state Senator and maybe a former state Represenative, and most worrisome, possibly the Honolulu Prosecutor.
Numbers in the extended entry:
Read my previous diary for more detailed information on the candidates.
Democrats:
Mazie Hirono is unquestionably the frontrunner after raising $300K although 100K of that was her own money (not necessarily a bad thing, it indicates she can self-fund if it comes down to the wire).
Colleen Hanabusa has made a stronger than expected showing with $110K. But I can't see her winning the thing after coming in third place last time the seat was open.
Gary Hooser is also doing well with about $100K, although he still faces the difficulty of raising his name awareness on the main island of Oahu, since he represents an outer island.
Brian Schatz has raised $76K of which $10K is his. Probably not enough to seriously compete. It's a shame this young progressive has to leave the state House to run for Congress.
Ron Menor is just starting to fundraise, but more troublesome for him than that is the endless negative press he has gotten over the gas cap law which unfortunately was implemented right before the Hurricanes, and has been unfairly blamed for high gas prices. I don't think his campaign will go far.
Matt Matsunaga has not started to fundraise either, but I still think he will finish in the top 4.
Republicans:
Bob Hogue has indeed jumped in the race, and that is good news for us. Why, you ask? First of all, his state Senate district is very competitive, and it gives Democrats a good chance to expand their already strong majority (20-5) by another seat. Secondly, Hogue has absolutely zero chance of winning this very blue seat against a powerhouse like Hirono. It will be a miracle for him to even get 45%. Whereas someone seen as independant-minded, like Peter Carlisle, could conceivably do better (although Hirono would still be strongly favored).
But the main reason it will be good is because it will probably lead to a contested GOP primary (as Peter Carlisle is reportedly leaning towards running), which will prevent them from unifying early around Carlisle, as they clearly wanted to. And moreso, it will drive up interest in the GOP primary, which will help stop Republicans and conservative independants from voting in the open Democratic primary. Such crossover voting is what gave us the conservative Ed Case when the great progressive Patsy Mink died in office, and it is what Case was counting on to beat Senator Akaka. Now Case will have to court real Democrats instead of everyone else, and this is likely the final nail in his ill-advised primary challenge.