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Based on money, voter registration, voter intimidation, and black box voting, the GOP could take 1 seat from the Democrats; the Democrats will probably take 7 seats from the GOP, and 9 seats are too close to call.  Of those 9 too close to call, 1 is the potential GOP pickup from the Democrats, Illinois 08, Melissa Bean, incumbent challenged by David McSweeney, Republican.  If the too-close-to-call 9 seats all went Democratic, that would sum to 16 Democratic pickups, giving the Speaker's gavel to Nancy Pelosi.

 
While there is an increasing anti-GOP sentiment at the national level, on the Congressional District level, the first quarter 2006 contributions and the disparities in fundraising between Democratic and Republican candidates for each House seat are sufficiently stark to make it easy to call most of these races.

There is a basic amount of money necessary to run the "air war" and the "ground war" of a political campaign.  The Air War means the TV, radio, and web expenses.  The Ground War means funding the office, staff, postage, phone, polls, doorhangers, mailings, billboard, and get out the vote expenses.   If you don't have as much money as your opponent, your opponent will buy more TV, radio, web, billboard, doorhangers, and mailings than you.  If nothing else, you'll be burned on name recognition, let alone caught short of the money to reply to attacks published in the last weeks of the campaign.

A candidate with stunning voter support and an excellent grassroots organization - volunteer phone bankers, neighborhood walkers, envelope stuffers, bloggers, house party hosts, etc. - can beat an unpopular candidate with more money, even if the well-heeled candidate has 4 times more money than the popular underdog.  But that circumstance is increasingly rare in a geography as large as a Congressional District, and there is a basic amount of money necessary to compete.  A candidate has to be able to buy television and radio time, billboards, mailings, etc. and keep the lights on.  If a candidate cannot do that, and is outspent, then money talks.  

In addition, if a candidate has raised a quarter of a million dollars more than all other candidates, that extra quarter million guarantees getting out message, buying up air time, paying for more phone banks, more polls, etc.  A perfect example of what you can do with the money you've got the opponent hasn't - buy up billboard space and in the last month of the campaign plaster the District's roadsides with proclamations that your opponent is a flagburner in favor of abortion, gay marriage, and terrorists.  This happened to Baron Hill in Indiana 09 in 2004 in his tight race against Mike Sodrel.  

It is as my 86-year-old mother says:  The Republicans have the money and the money talks.  This is increasingly the case, as witness the research cited in this story by georgia10.    
*    In 2000, 85% of the Senate races were won by the candidate who spent the most money.  For the House, the money-victory correlation was even higher, with candidates who outspent their opponents enjoying a  94% success rate.
*    In 2002, about 95% of House races and 76% of Senate races were won by the candidate who spent the most money.
*    In 2004,  the same predictable pattern. In 95% of House races and 91% of Senate races, the candidate who had the most dollars won.

Besides the great weight and predictive value given to the money, three other factors count in a rational analysis:  

*    Voter registration in the District.  
*    Voter intimidation and voter suppression in the District
*    Black box voting in the District.  

The impacts of voter intimidation and voter suppression in specific Districts since 2000 (a historically shortsighted view by about 150 years) are well documented.  It is much more difficult to quantify the impact of black box voting, but we can be sure that it will again come into play, especially where races are close.  

The second quarter fundraising may add Democratic seats.  What will happen this summer:  gas prices will reach $3.38/gallon or higher.  Increasing gas prices always militate against the party in office.  The war in Iraq will continue to damage the GOP base.  Continued revelations of misfeasance and outright lying will plague the Republicans.  The economy will unwind while oil company profits soar.  This means that congressional districts where there's a tight race and a substantial number of registered voters who have refused to identify with either Democrats or Republicans are the key districts, and these independents are the voters who will decide the way the District goes.  Probably, in 2006, they'll vote Democratic.  

Off-year elections typically show about 30% turnout, and this year the GOP conservative base will be hard to motivate except in competitive Districts where Rove, I suppose, has engineered hot button issues - Da Fence in southern Arizona, e.g., to keep Mezcans out.  Da Fence will not play well with Hispanic voters, so the goal has to be voter suppression of Hispanic voters, not attracting them to the GOP.  In South Dakota, the attempt to mobilize the GOP base is in the anti abortion bill, which has prompted the Pine Ridge President Cecilia Fire Thunder to announce plans to build a Planned Parenthood clinic on her property on the Pine Ridge reservation.  Again, the attempt will have to be to suppress the Indian vote, as was so flagrantly done in 2004.

[A federal judge found that South Dakota GOP poll workers intimidated Indian voters in 2004, and the ACLU sued to enforce federal voting rights laws in the state in 2004.  There were also cases of GOP attempts to declare Indian votes and voter registration fraudulent in South Dakota in 2002.  Reported in SFGate.com;  
People For The American Way; and The Washington Post.]

The seat the GOP could, based only on money, take from the Democrats is Illinois 08, Democratic incumbent Melissa Bean challenged by Republican David McSweeney.  

The Districts I think the Democrats are likely to take from the GOP are Arizona 08, Indiana 03, Indiana 08, Indiana 09, New York 24, Texas 22, Wisconsin 08.  

Here are the 9 that I say are too close to call:

Colorado 5 - Republican Douglas Lamborn and Democrat Jay Fawcett are less than $50,000 apart in first quarter take.  But Fawcett has about $62,000 ending cash and Lamborn has about $144,000 ending cash.  There are 7 GOP candidates for the heavily Republican District seat.

Colorado 7 - Republican Rick O'Donnell v. Democrat Edwin Perlmutter. They are about $240,000 apart in end of first quarter receipts, and about the same amount apart in cash on hand as of 3/31/2006.

Florida 08 - Republican incumbent Ric Keller and Democratic challenger Charlie Stuart are less than $300,000 apart.  In 2004, 40 percent of district voters were registered Republicans, 36 were Democrat. That's 24% of the District's voters declining to register Republican or Democrat.  That's a race.

Florida 22 - Incumbent Republican Clay Shaw v. Ron Klein - they are less than $100,000 apart in end of first quarter receipts and less than $500,000 apart in cash on hand as of 3/31/06. Kerry won this district 51% to 49% in 2004, and the District's over-60 voters have issues with prescription drug pricing, attempts to privatize Social Security, rising gas prices, higher homeowners' insurance, and GOP morals and ethics.

Illinois 08 - There are $300,000 between Democrat incumbent Melissa Bean and Republican challenger David McSweeney.  It's a gerrymandered district composed of parts of Cook, Lake, and McHenry counties.  

Iowa District 01 - The race is so far pretty close to dead even between Republican Bill Dix and Democrat Bruce Braley.  There's $5,000 difference between what the PACs have contributed to each candidate.  Jim Nussle, R, the incumbent, is vacating the seat to run for governor, leaving an open Republican-held seat in a just slightly Democratic district  A large field of challengers from both parties has now come down to these two contenders, and the forecast of a race tighter than Dick's hatband is coming to pass.

Minnesota 06 - at present there are 2 Democratic hopefuls and 5 Republican hopefuls for this open seat.  The primary is September 12.  If the Democrats get down to 1 candidate and combine forces and money, this can be very competitive.

Ohio 01 - It will cost the Democratic party and its major funders about $350,000 to fund Democratic challenger John J. Cranley IV sufficiently to be even with Republican incumbent Steve Chabot.  

The District went to Bush 51% to Kerry's 49%, but all Ohio 2004 vote counts are suspect.
During 2004 GOP voter intimidation of minorities was rampant in Cincinnati.  
See also Voters Unite, Feminist.org, and Truthout.

According to the Hamilton County Republican Party Chairman Brad Greenberg, Chabot has broad and deep support in the district.   Greenberg believes the GOP can reach out to black and latino voters. Besides the presence of minority voter suppression in the District, Congressman Chabot voted to build a 700-mile-long wall between Mexico and the United States to keep illegal immigrants out.  He also voted to make illegal immigrants felons.  The bill he voted for made it a felony for charity workers to provide water to people crossing the desert.  These positions are unlikely to win votes among Cincinnati's minorities.  

How many voters registered in each party in the District?

There are 549,367 registered voters in Hamilton County as of 3/21/2006.  
In November 2004, 78.9% of Hamilton County voters were registered as Democrat.

Charlie Cook says this District leans Republican.  The question is why.

Pennsylvania 06 - Republican incumbent Jim Gerlach has about a $400,000 financial lead over Democratic challenger Lois Murphy; in first quarter receipts and less than $200,000 in ending cash in hand.

This is a gerrymandered district made of parts of Chester, Berks, and Montgomery counties, one of the new districts made by the state Republicans and litigated by Democrats.  In November 2005, Chester County had Democrats: 88,700 (30.54%)and Republicans: 153,518 (52.85%).  As of November 2004, 47.6% of registered voters in Montgomery County are Republicans, 37.9% are Democrats and 14.5% are other or unaffiliated.  Berks County has slightly more Democrats than Republicans; but it has the key 30,000+ voters who will vote either party, and swing the election in the District.  Pennsylvania 06 appears to be neither red nor blue.  

Are there additional Districts that could gain enough money and votes to go Democratic?  

Illinois 06 - It will cost the Democratic Party and its major donors more than $500,000 to get Major Tammy Duckworth equal in funds to the Republican candidate Peter Roskam.

Connecticut 02- it will cost the Democratic party and its major donors about $500,000 to get Democratic challenger Joseph Courtney competitive with Republican incumbent Rob Simmons.

Connecticut 04 - it will cost the Democratic party and its major donors at least half a million dollars to make Democratic candidate Diane Goss Farrell competitive with incumbent Republican Chris Shays.

California 45 could be an actual race, if the Democratic party and its major donors provide David Malcolm Roth with $245,000 to compete with and pull ahead of incumbent Mary Bono.  
Iowa 02 has real possibility, as incumbent Republican Jim Leach is notorious for trivializing fundraising.  At the moment, it will cost the Democratic party and its major donors about $150,000 to get Democratic challenger David Wayne Loebsack competitive and a little ahead of Leach.

That's 6 additional races.

Easy call -  Nick Lampson will take what was Tom DeLay's seat.  

Originally posted to marthature on Tue Apr 25, 2006 at 07:28 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Expectations here are wildly overblown. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    kkjohnson

    I think the chance of taking the House is very slim, and these numbers support that. But here, it seems people think it's a virtual certainty Dems will have the subpoena power come January. Not only is it not a certain outcome, it is quite unlikely. I think people should prepare themselves for incremental gains come November...

    We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office. Aesop (620 - 560 BC)

    by AWhitneyBrown on Tue Apr 25, 2006 at 07:30:13 AM PDT

    •  I don't think so (0+ / 0-)

      (although I would disagree with some of the choices selected here -- CA-50 [Open], CA-11 [Richard Pombo], and maybe even CA-26 [David Dreier] are probably better pickup possibilities than CA-45) most political analysts are predicting a lean Dem year with almost all of the toss-ups favoring us.

      Visit RemoveRepublicans.com and follow every 2006 Senate race.

      by AnthonySF on Tue Apr 25, 2006 at 07:36:48 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  And I wonder (0+ / 0-)

        Where is NM-01 on this list?

        And also KY-04.

        Actually, the reason I'm optimistic about the House is because there are a whole bunch of states- Colorado, New York, Indiana, California, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Illinois, Florida-where we have multiple competitive House races in that state alone.

        So, let's say, a Democratic tide in New York could bring us anywhere from one to six seats. Which is not unlikely, this fall, as Hillary and Spitzer head the ticket.

        -8.38, -8.08. I'm not a Democrat because I wish the country could do better. I'm a Democrat because I know we can.

        by Arjun Jaikumar on Tue Apr 25, 2006 at 07:45:41 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  NM 01 and KY 04 D's outspent overwhelmingly (0+ / 0-)

          If you go to the FEC site you'll see that in these races the Democratic candidates are outspent so much by their Republican opponents as to not have the minimum $ necessary to compete.  

          Hillary may play well in some parts of the country but she is anathema to every serious analyst I know.  She cannot overcome her baggage.

          This is us governing. Live so that 100 years from now, someone might be proud of us.

          by marthature on Tue Apr 25, 2006 at 07:52:48 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Re: Hillary (0+ / 0-)

            We're talking about NY here, not the Presidential bid.  She's very popular back "home" and will probably get 60-65% of the vote.  Add in Spitzer, who may get a Chuck Schumer-like 71%, and those are some pretty big coattails.

            Visit RemoveRepublicans.com and follow every 2006 Senate race.

            by AnthonySF on Tue Apr 25, 2006 at 07:59:31 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Hillary's opponent claim she spied in her window (0+ / 0-)

              using a helicopter! I am not making that up! Do you think anyone but the most rapid die hard Republican knowing they face certain doom at the polls will go out and vote??? Her opponent needs to cover her head with tin-foil to keep out the alien voices. That should be big coatails with the Dems slate dto win the Governor,Senate, and Att.-Generals office.

              -1.63/ -1.49 "Speaking truth to power"

              by dopper0189 on Tue Apr 25, 2006 at 09:51:32 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  Sure they do (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            AnthonySF

            Madrid has outraised Wilson since she got in. She raised over a million dollars already.

            Lucas just got in recently, but given that he's outpolling Davis and that he's the district's former Rep, I don't think he'll have trouble raising money.

            -8.38, -8.08. I'm not a Democrat because I wish the country could do better. I'm a Democrat because I know we can.

            by Arjun Jaikumar on Tue Apr 25, 2006 at 08:23:02 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  California 50 swamped by GOP $ (0+ / 0-)

        Up until the primary I thought CA 50 looked like a Democratic win.  However, if you go to the FEC site and look at the amount of money each candidate has raised you will see that Busby has been swamped by Vincent Roach - $2,383,584 to Busby's $1,494,065.  

        If you go look at the $ involved in Pombo's and Dreiers races, you will see why I did not even analyze them.  

        The majority of these updates are posted on Buyblue.org, and I urge all to go to the site and check out all the numbers and analyses.  

        This is us governing. Live so that 100 years from now, someone might be proud of us.

        by marthature on Tue Apr 25, 2006 at 07:49:31 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Ummm (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          AnthonySF

          For all his money, Eric Roach is not the candidate running against Busby, Bilbray is.  Now Bilbray and Roach may still face off in a June 6th primary (which will probably damage both of them against Busby).  I think we put a little too much stock into money.  Yes, money is very important in politics.  But there is more than that.  Frankly I think it's a shame that in this political climate the best the Democrats could hope for is 8 seats.  That's pretty pathetic.

    •  Forecasting makes fools of us all (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Ahianne, Unduna

      The fun part of research and reporting is the chance of being wrong.  That being said, georgia10 and others on this list have been prety levelheaded about the likelihood of recovering the House, in my humble opinion, and have done some level-headed research and analysis.

      It is also true that we are now a nation of great TV watchers and the trends against the GOP become viral - add that to the mix and we may very well see 16 seats gained.

      This is us governing. Live so that 100 years from now, someone might be proud of us.

      by marthature on Tue Apr 25, 2006 at 07:40:15 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Re: OH-01 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Ahianne

    The reason that OH-01 typically votes Republican and for Chabot is that the district was gerrymandered several years ago to only include the West End of Cincinnati, its northwestern suburbs (extremely conservative - aka - the only school districts with abstinence-only education in Cincinnati) and more rural counties such as Butler and Preble. This district is the home of such wonderful graces as Phil Burress (Citizens for Community Values) and the blasphemous Solid Rock Church. The district also has more Hustler of Hollywood stores than any other congressional district in Ohio - go figure. Unfortunately, after having lived in OH-01 for five years, I don't believe former councilman Cranley has enough pull in Butler County or the Northwest suburbs to defeat Chabot.

    •  Appreciate that information (0+ / 0-)

      This is the hard part - can you distinguish your perspective from data on:

      voter registration
      voter suppression and intimidation
      polls
      letters to editors
      money in hand for each candidate

      All info cheerfully received.

      This is us governing. Live so that 100 years from now, someone might be proud of us.

      by marthature on Tue Apr 25, 2006 at 07:43:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I witnessed the intimidation... (0+ / 0-)

        Since I lived in the OH-01, I witnessed the voter intimidation you refer to. A number of University of Cincinnati students complained that male students who appeared to be more effeminate than others were hasseled by poll workers claiming that their information had been lost. Remember, in 2004, Cincinnati successfully voted on the repeal of Article XII, but even black poll workers were participating in this intimidation toward Cincinnati gays. Cincinnati is a backward and regressive city who cannot mind its own business so it concerns itself with everyone's private lives. I don't expect any major changes any time soon. That's why I left Cincinnati after five years.

  •  I don't want to see anyone posting here (0+ / 0-)

    during the weekends in sept or oct and certainly not on election day.  
    PA 10 is a possibility too and I hope everyone will take a secound look.  We have some very positive news coming out in the next few days.  
    But none of these races are winable without all the feet on the ground that we can get there. Sign up to volunteer and then plan on personally recruiting 20 more people to come with you and tell them to each get 20 more.

    •  What was the (0+ / 0-)

      Kerry/Bush breakdown of PA-10?

      Visit RemoveRepublicans.com and follow every 2006 Senate race.

      by AnthonySF on Tue Apr 25, 2006 at 07:43:39 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Where to research these questions (0+ / 0-)

        I would check the Wikiepedia site for that.  One interesting conundrum is that votes are counted by precincts and then counties, and counties are often divided among Districts.  So there is often a translating guesstimate. And then there was also the Pennsylvania redistricting.  

        This is us governing. Live so that 100 years from now, someone might be proud of us.

        by marthature on Tue Apr 25, 2006 at 08:03:35 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Data (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          AnthonySF

          Here is a mapof the vote in 2000 by congressional district.  Click on the state.  And scroll to the bottom and click on the "For a detailed analysis, including race and voting statistics, click here."  It shows a map of the state with the 2000 gerrymandered seats and breaks down the 2000 Presidential vote by seat in the pre-2000 gerrymander and the post-2000 gerrymander.

          If you want 2004 data, it is in the Almanac of American Politics by Michael Barone which I finally broke down and bought.

          •  Sometimes you have to get lucky (0+ / 0-)

            and hope that the SoS has that info, like we do in California.  For instance, Kerry won 84%-14% in CA-08, where I live.

            Visit RemoveRepublicans.com and follow every 2006 Senate race.

            by AnthonySF on Tue Apr 25, 2006 at 09:02:12 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I'm not even sure those numbers are even so good (0+ / 0-)

              Because there is a lot of dissatisfaction with Dubya out there.  I can't imagine what his approval rating in just San Francisco is.  And as we saw in New Jersey, what was supposed to be a close gubernatorial race turned into a 10% win for Corzine who ran ads tying his opponent to Bush.  Even if you look at the New Orleans municipal election, the Dem candidates received a total of 89% of the vote.  In 2004, Kerry received 77% of the vote.  That is also roughly what the the Democratic Senate candidates in New Orleans combined for.  

      •  bush won a healthy amount (0+ / 0-)

        but wait until you see the poll we just did... the Kerry bush breakdown is less important than you think.  I am going to do a diary tonight when I get home from rehersal.

  •  I live in IA-02 (0+ / 0-)

    and there's virtually no way Loebsack is going to beat Leach this year. Russ Feingold will be in town for a fundraiser with Loebsack this week though, which is a good sign.

    You are greatly underplaying IA-01 though, it is much more than a "just slightly Democratic" district.  Braley is a good candidate and should win that district easily. (should being the operative word).  

    Pray that there's intelligent life somewhere up in space because there's bugger all down here on Earth.

    by bawbie on Tue Apr 25, 2006 at 07:46:15 AM PDT

    •  Leach has a reputation (0+ / 0-)

      as one of the most moderate House Republicans, no?

      That was certainly the impression I was under.

      -8.38, -8.08. I'm not a Democrat because I wish the country could do better. I'm a Democrat because I know we can.

      by Arjun Jaikumar on Tue Apr 25, 2006 at 07:47:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  yes, he has that reputation (0+ / 0-)

        and bolsters it as long as his vote doesn't matter.

        I believe he's the republican representing the most democratic district in the country.  

        he's also an old buddy of Rumsfeld, he worked for him in the Ford administration, I believe.

        Pray that there's intelligent life somewhere up in space because there's bugger all down here on Earth.

        by bawbie on Tue Apr 25, 2006 at 08:47:48 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Thanks; also can you elaborate on how (0+ / 0-)

      thanks for the update re IA-02.  Can you elaborate on how you read IA-01, given the fact that Braley is trailing 2 Republicans in fundraising?

      Dix (R) $504,980
      Whalen (R) $492,622
      Braley (D) $489,629

      This is us governing. Live so that 100 years from now, someone might be proud of us.

      by marthature on Tue Apr 25, 2006 at 08:07:14 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  He's trailing them (0+ / 0-)

        by only a few grand, which is insignificant in the grand scheme of things -- especially when the DCCC kicks more money in once the race heats up.

        Visit RemoveRepublicans.com and follow every 2006 Senate race.

        by AnthonySF on Tue Apr 25, 2006 at 08:15:01 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Fundraising for ia-01 (0+ / 0-)

        Dix is a major player at the statehouse.

        Whalen owns a chain of restaraunts and is pretty much self financing.

        Braley will be fine.

        I choose to be inspired.

        by demiowa on Tue Apr 25, 2006 at 08:16:26 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I firmly believe money isn't everything (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Ahianne, SoCalLiberal

        As long as you can compete with money, democrats have proven they don't need as much money as republicans to defeat them, especially in open seats.

        IA-01 is not an especially expensive district to advertise, and Braley is a former head of the Iowa Trial Lawyer Association.  He'll have enough money.

        Pray that there's intelligent life somewhere up in space because there's bugger all down here on Earth.

        by bawbie on Tue Apr 25, 2006 at 08:49:29 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Remember Michael Huffington? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Ahianne

          That man spent over 40 million dollars to defeat Dianne Feinstein in 1994.  Despite the heavy Republican sweep that year, Huffington lost.  We'll never have more than the Republicans (except in a couple instances), like you said, we simply need enough to remain competitive.

  •  Clean sweep in CT (0+ / 0-)

    We're looking for a clean sweep of CT-02, CT-04 and CT-05.  Of the three, Nancy Johnson in CT-05 is the strongest.  However, she's largly responsible for the Medicare D(ebacle) and senior citizens are pissed.  Southbury which is the town with the largest percentage of 55 and older people in CT is in her district.  With some hard hitting ads tying that anchor to her neck and help Chris Murphy can pull this one off. If there were ever a year a long term incumbent Republican was vulnerable it would be Nancy in CT-05.  

    -8.50, -7.59 This is your world. These are your people. You can live for yourself today, or help build tomorrow for everyone.

    by DisNoir36 on Tue Apr 25, 2006 at 07:48:40 AM PDT

    •  Thanks, but can you explain how (0+ / 0-)

      you see a clean sweep in Connecticut given the $s raised by the candidates?

      Check out Buyblue's analysis and the updates at Political Money Line for the financial disparities among candidates.  

      In CT-02 Republican Simmons has $1,351,578
      Democrat Courtney has $806,402. And as I said it will cost the Democratic party $500,000 to beat Chris Shays.

      This is us governing. Live so that 100 years from now, someone might be proud of us.

      by marthature on Tue Apr 25, 2006 at 08:12:47 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Courtney is fundraising better (0+ / 0-)

        than he was last cycle and he came within a few points then.  I think he a great shot.  It's not solely about the money, especially when the totals are close.

        Visit RemoveRepublicans.com and follow every 2006 Senate race.

        by AnthonySF on Tue Apr 25, 2006 at 08:16:22 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It is not only about money, no, but (0+ / 0-)

          as stated, it is necessary to have the $ and in addition there are
          voter registraiton
          voter intimidation
          black box voting
          viral effect of national news
          price of gas during the summer

          This is us governing. Live so that 100 years from now, someone might be proud of us.

          by marthature on Tue Apr 25, 2006 at 08:31:28 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Um (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            AnthonySF

            CT is a heavy Dem/Progressive state.

            There is very little if any voter intimidation.

            We haven't had any major or minor voting irregularities.

            National news and gas prices favor challengers not incumbents.

            Republicans have no Republican with name recognition running with exception of Gov Rell.  No coattails to ride on.

            Voter discontent with incumbents is increasing.  Even Joe Lieberman is fair game.  If Ned Lamont manages to upend Joementum there will be a wave of progressives that will translate into more votes for the candidates downstream.  This is the key.  If Joe is at the top of the ticket there won't be much turnout on the progressive side.  However, conservatives are disillusioned and many may stay home for these elections.  There aren't many bible thumping lemmpings that will vote for gay amendments and such.  Not here.  The senator candidates on the right are awful on top of it.  Outside of Nancy Johnson the incumbents in CT-02 and CT-04 squeaked by in 2004 in what was a good year for Repubs.  They're not going to be so lucky this time facing rematches (Courtney ran in 02).

            -8.50, -7.59 This is your world. These are your people. You can live for yourself today, or help build tomorrow for everyone.

            by DisNoir36 on Tue Apr 25, 2006 at 08:40:36 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Oh my GOD (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DelRPCV, SoCalLiberal, brownsox

    Colorado 5 too close to call? HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!!!!!

    Bush got like 68% in Colorado 5. I don't believe it has ever voted for a Democrat for, like, anything. Take that off your too-close-to-call list, I will be shocked if Doug Lamborn is not the next Rep. for CO-05.

    Iowa 02 and California 45 are lost causes as well. CA-45 leans GOP (it's most of Riverside County) and Bono is popular. As for IA-02, Leach is very very popular. We could win it when he retires, though.

    But you're leaving off some major competitive races. NM-01. IN-08 and IN-09. KY-04...

    •  CO-05 (0+ / 0-)

      I agree this district doesn't belong in the "too close to call" category, but it is way too early to call the race for Doug Lamborn.  First of all, the Republicans are going to tear each other apart in their seven way primary while Fawcett collects more money.  (Look out for Lionel Rivera as the Rove-backed dark horse there.)  Second, Bush is at a net negative approval rating in the Colorado Springs are (per SUSA) while the various Republicans will probably try to tie themselves closely to Bush to win the primary.  Basically, the war is finally becoming unpopular in this heavily military district, creating an opening for a Fighting Dem like Fawcett.

      Is it a longshot?  Of course it is.  But the Republicans won CO-01 in 1970 during an unpopular war.  No Republican has won in that district before or since in the post-WWII era; it is just as Democratic as CO-05 is Republican.  The point is that sometimes even solid districts can tip the other way for an election cycle or two.

    •  A few replies (0+ / 0-)

      thanks for the thoughts on Co-05.  California 45 has the majority of its money in the east and the majority of its money in the west, where the working class people live and tend to vote democratic.

      I would like to know more re IA 2.

      As stated before, NM-01 the Dems are beat financially.  Indiana 8 I call close and Indiana 9 I call for the Democrat Baron Hill.  

      This is us governing. Live so that 100 years from now, someone might be proud of us.

      by marthature on Tue Apr 25, 2006 at 08:16:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Re: NM 1 (not beat financially) (0+ / 0-)

        >>As stated before, NM-01 the Dems are beat financially.<<</p>

        Madrid was within distance in the most recent quarter as both raised over $600,000 (Swing State recently highlighted the race for that reason).  Opensecrets had both candidates with over $1 million raised at this point in the cycle.  Which means there is a good chance that Madrid will end up raising over $ 2 million which does =/= beat.  Currently she has over $800,000 on hand, which is darned good for that district (while it is a city district the district is not that expensive as things go, which mean $800,000 will go fairly far).

        "An army of principles can penetrate where an army of soldiers cannot." - Thomas Paine

        by Mister Gloom on Tue Apr 25, 2006 at 09:13:38 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  don't call melissa a democrat... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    AnthonySF

    its a secret...

    we'll stand him up against a wall and pop goes the weasel /rufus t. firefly

    by 2nd balcony on Tue Apr 25, 2006 at 07:50:18 AM PDT

  •  IL-10 (0+ / 0-)

    We're planning on taking this seat from MarkKirk, a rubber-stamp republican who voted 86% of the time with DeLay (& consequently, Bush)... He's got a voting record that's truly embarrassing.  A veteran who votes against veteran benefits... Go figure.

    Dan Seals is the Dem candidate.  Our district went for Kerry in '04; but somehow Kirk fooled many moderates into voting for him.  His rocord is proof of what a disaster he has been for our district & nation...  Blogger Ellen of the Tenth keeps us up on his shenanigans.

    "Overcome anger by love, evil by good, the greedy by generosity, and the liar by truth." - Buddha

    by madame defarge on Tue Apr 25, 2006 at 07:53:43 AM PDT

  •  Florida 13: (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    AnthonySF

    Cash on hand 3/31/06:

    Vern Buchanan (R):      $736,829    
    Tram Hudson (R):        $559,394
    Christine Jennings (D): $421,854
    Jan Schneider (D):      $ 99,921

    Buchanan will probably win the R primary with his personal fortune, but it will be a nasty and expensive race w/Hudson. Buchanan is a Harris clone and has a very dirty history which won't play well if this election is a referendum on ethics.

    Jennings, to the dismay of some here (but not to me), has support from the DCCC, Emmanuel, Pelosi, Kerry, Hoyer, etc. and can continue to raise the funds needed to expose Buchanan's misdeeds with ad buys in the general. Jennings is also widely regarded by both Dems and "rational" R's in the community.

    Also, Sarasota recently elected a Democratic Mayor and a majority Democratic City Council.

    It's fair to keep FL-13 in the leaning R column, but also fair to keep a close eye on this race - R's here are truly disaffected.

  •  2006 House Predictions (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    AnthonySF

    Democrats will pick up
    1)Arizona-8

    2)Colorado-7

    3)Connecticut-2
    4)Indiana-8
    5)Indiana-9
    6)Iowa-1
    7)New Mexico-1
    8)New York-24
    9)Ohio-18
    10)Pennsylvania-6

    11)-Texas-22

    Too Close to Call Races.
    1)Connecticut-4

    2)Florida-22

    3)Pennsylvania-8
    4)Washington-8

  •  Indiana 8th & 9th (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Debby

    are going to be prime pick up opportunities for Democrats, but I'm not understanding why you think that the 3rd is in play.  Indiana is going to be a battleground this fall with the 8th and the 9th being the recipients of large amount of attention.  And the sleeper in the mix is the IN-6, contested by our very own Barry Welsh.  Another district that could be very close would be the IN-2 centered on South Bend.  The 3rd contains much of the city of Fort Wayne with very good democratic precincts in the inner city there (the 6th has 2 strong democratic precincts in Adams 660, and Adams 665, the rest of the township is in the 3rd.) But further north in the Fort Wayne suburbs and Elkhart-Goshen, it's all higlhly Republican.  The very strong hispanic presence in Elkhart could be interesting, but overall, this is not friendly territory.

    My prediction:

    Democratic landslides in the IN-8 (this district was said to have been drawn for the former speaker of the House,with a 2-1 D-R rgistration advantage) and IN-9, while the IN-6, and IN-2 will be closer, but democratic victories.  The IN-3 could be taken, but if the IN-3 goes Democratic it will be because the Republicans have been sweeped from office in a defeat much worse than Watergate.

  •  What the hell? (5+ / 0-)

    This is exactly the kind of diary on the elections that pisses me off. Where is even a mention of the Georgia races? Has the entire Democratic party just given up on Georgia because it's not an "easy" win?

    Screw that. My brother Paul and I, have been working our asses off trying to get him on the ballot in Georgia's Ninth, against a Republican incumbent who hasn't even seen opposition since the 2000 race. We got a very late start, stepping in after the Democratic party didn't even try to field a candidate here. And yet, Paul can't seem to get a single bit of attention from the party or anyone.

    I guess if Paul was running in a popular bluish/purple state instead of a red one, people would be interested. I guess Georgia is just written off as a loss now. This is exactly why Georgia's voters go so solidly red. No one in the Democratic party bothers to take them seriously. No one even tries to appeal to them.

    The qualifying deadline in Georgia is this Friday at noon. We've been trying desperately to raise money to get Paul on the ballot. Sure, we've gotten lots of pats on the back and supportive comments here, but we've raised exactly $10.00 through DKos. This kind of apathy about a state that used to support Democrats, is exactly why we won't win back the House in 2006.

    So much for a "50 state strategy" or "challenge every seat". More like, pick off the low hanging fruit. How neoconservative.

    •  I have not intended to piss you off (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Ahianne, AnthonySF, Sanuk

      I regret your sorrow and anger.

      I just went with the data I found. Money talks.
      So does voter suppression and intimidation, black box voting, and voter registration.

      AND SO DOES CARING.AND WORKING.

      I repeat - You can be beat 4 to 1 by the money if you've got the necessary minimum to run your air and ground war and if you've got a solid base of committed voters, and if you've got disaffected people of the other party and substantial declines to state registered voters.

      But friend, we are in a civil war for this country, not for the first time, if you read history.  We need to get on it.

      This is us governing. Live so that 100 years from now, someone might be proud of us.

      by marthature on Tue Apr 25, 2006 at 08:24:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That's exactly what (0+ / 0-)

        I'm saying. We (ie, the party, progressives, etc.) need to get on it.

        My brother and I stepped in and started running him as a candidate when the party did nothing and the deadline to file started approaching. We're struggling to raise 5K to get him on the ballot. We've created everything we have so far, from scratch in just over 2 weeks time with no help from anyone save one party chair in Forsyth County who has bent over backwards to get us the info we needed and get word out to the media.

        It's not you that pisses me off, and I apologize that my anger was directed that way. It's the apathy of the party and of progressives when it comes down to a tough fight.

        With Georgia's current situation (Dems announcing party changes when filing to run) and the anti-Democrat sentiment among the voters, Georgia is a perfect state to define and refine our message and approach. It's NOT safe territory, it's the middle of enemy territory, so to speak. Smack dab in the middle of red America.

        What better place to start reaping the benefits of dissension among the ranks of Republican supporters than right in their own backyard? What better way to show Americans what Democrats can do for them, than by extending our hand to those in the reddest part of the country?

        I'm pissed me off that democrats, liberals, progressives, etc., as a whole, seem to be full of wonderful talk and visions of the future. But come up woefully short on action and balls when it comes down to a real fight. No wonder the republicans paint us with the broad brushes they do.

    •  GOOD LUCK (0+ / 0-)

      I just made a $20 contribution.
      I wish I had the balls to run in my district (NJ-02).
      I'm just a regular working guy like Paul.

      Our congressman Frank LoBiondo has broken his 1994 term limit pledge. He Votes with Bush nearly all the time. The district probably even has a Democratic registration edge, and there is a lot of anger with the repugs here as well. But alas, I have heard of no serious challengers. This district could be had with a serious challenger (Jeff VanDrew), but he won't run. SAD

      (-3.38/-4.46) There's a fine line between fishing and just standing on the shore like an idiot. --Steven Wright

      by vcwagner on Tue Apr 25, 2006 at 08:50:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Thank you so much. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Ahianne

        It wasn't my itention to turn this into a pledge drive. I'm just angry that the party seems to have abandoned it's spine, along with the candidates and voters, in the South.

        I will tell you that it IS a tough decision to make and it is NOT easy. We're running ourselves ragged tying to do this in such a short time. But in the end, I think it will pay off for the people of GA-9, whether Paul wins or loses.

        Let me hopefully encourage you by saying that, if you have the time and patience, it is worth it to step in. Regular people MUST step up and be heard. Change cannot happen without your intervention.

        Again, thank you so much for the contribution. It means alot to Paul and I both that regular people like you will take a chance on him with so much riding on this election.

  •  You should add the NY-22 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Sanuk

    This will be a squeaker with challenger Kirsten Gillibrand access to the Clinton money machine.

  •  And, that doesn't hand the speaker's gavel (0+ / 0-)

    to Nancy Pelosi.

    As a matter of fact, I would expect to see a big challenege mounted to THAT reality.

  •  looks tough (0+ / 0-)

    unless the bottom falls out of whats left of the
    economy i figure we`ll get a  5-7 seat gain once all
    the negative advertising starts. i actually think the year we take over will be 2008.

  •  Look for House Seats in states that have (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SoCalLiberal, dopper0189

    Senate and Governors Races- Democrats are favored to win.
    1)Arizona-(Janet Napilitano-D)is strongly favored to win the 2006 Arizona Governors Race. Her coattails will help Democrats win the Arizona-8(OPEN-Kolbe-R)and Arizona-5(Hayworth-R). +2
    2)California-(Diane Fienstien-D)is strongly favored to win the 2006 California US Senate Race. Fienstien will help Democrats win California-50(Busby-D)and California-11(Pombo-R) +1
    3)Florida-(Bill Nelson-D)is strongly favored to win the 2006 Florida US Senate Race against Katherine Harris. Nelson's coattails will help Democrats win Florida 22(Shaw-R)+1
    4)New Hampshire-(John Lynch-D)is strongly favored to win the 2006 New Hampshire Governors Race. Helping Democrats with both US House Seats in New Hampshire- NH-1(Bradley-R)and NH-2(Bass-R)+2
    5)New Mexico-(Bill Richardson-D)is strongly favored to win the 2006 New Mexico Governors Race.and Jeff Bingaman is strongly favored to win the 2006 New Mexico US Senate Race. Richardson and Bingaman's coattaills will help Democrats win New Mexico-1(Wilson-R)+1
    6)New York-(Hillary Clinton-D)is strongly favored to win the 2006 New York US Senate Race. (Elliot Spitzer-D)is strongly favored to win the 2006 New York Governors Race. Clinton's and Spitzer's coattails will help Democrats win US House Seats in
    New York-24(OPEN-Boehlert-R)
    New York-29(Kuhl-R)
    New York-25(Walsh-R)
    New York-26(Reynolds-R) +4
    7)Ohio-(Ted Strickland-D)is strongly favored to win the 2006 Ohio Governors Race -helping Democrats win
    Ohio-1(Chabot-R),Ohio-15(Pryce-R)and Ohio-18(Ney-R)+3
    8)Pennsylvania-(Ed Rendell-D)is strongly favored to win the 2006 Pennsylvania Governors Race and Bob Casey Jr is strongly favored to win the 2006 Pennsylvania US Senate Race helping Democrats win Pennsylvania-6(Gerlach-R),Pennsylvania-7(Weldon-R)and Pennsylvania-8(Fitzpatrick-R) +3
    9)Washington-(Maria Cantwell-D)is strongly favored to win the 2006 Washington US Senate Race- Cantwell's popularity in the Seattle Suburbs may help Democrats win the Washington-8(Reichert-R)

    •   Paul Hodes NH-2nd outraised the incumbant by 50% (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      AnthonySF

      Paul Hodes-D, verses Charlie Bass this is a Dark Horse quickly becoming a real race. Race Kerry won the District (and NH), Governor Linch-D has 70% approval in the district. This Distric last had a Democrat in 1992 (Dick Sweat). This is Hodes second challenge of Bass, and he gained name recognition. Bass will have a hard time motivating the GOP base because he is a moderate (No drilling in ANWR, pro-choice). The Libertarian Party also took 3.5% in the distric last cycle cutting into the GOP base.

      From Paul Hodes website
      Congressional candidate Paul Hodes showed he will be a formidable challenger by raising more money in the first three months of 2006 than incumbent Congressman Charlie Bass.

      Hodes, a Concord Democrat, raised $146,013 in the first quarter, while Bass raised only $102,160, almost 50% less than Hodes’ total.  
      http://www.hodesforcongress.com

      -1.63/ -1.49 "Speaking truth to power"

      by dopper0189 on Tue Apr 25, 2006 at 09:45:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Gotta go to work (0+ / 0-)

    Thank you all for reading, thinking, discussing.

    I gotta go earn a living.  Won't be posting more on this today.

    Please keep on the case, as the attention of people to these races adds to the viral effect.

    This is us governing. Live so that 100 years from now, someone might be proud of us.

    by marthature on Tue Apr 25, 2006 at 08:33:24 AM PDT

  •  your math (0+ / 0-)

    Based on money, voter registration, voter intimidation, and black box voting, the GOP could take 1 seat from the Democrats; the Democrats will probably take 7 seats from the GOP, and 9 seats are too close to call.  Of those 9 too close to call, 1 is the potential GOP pickup from the Democrats, Illinois 08, Melissa Bean, incumbent challenged by David McSweeney, Republican.  If the too-close-to-call 9 seats all went Democratic, that would sum to 16 Democratic pickups, giving the Speaker's gavel to Nancy Pelosi.

    Maybe I'm being a dummy, but if 1 of the 9 too close to call seats is the potential GOP pickup from the Democrats, that means winning all of those seats nets up only 8 seats, not 9, which puts us just short of controlling the House.

    Anyway, the trends are good, but we're still going to have to be extremely lucky to sweep the table. Most likely, we'll gain 10-12 seats and put a serious dent in their majority.

    "This...this is the fault of that Clinton Penis! And that powermongering wife of his!"

    by CaptUnderpants on Tue Apr 25, 2006 at 08:45:29 AM PDT

  •  Paul Hodes NH-2nd outraised the incumbant by 50% (0+ / 0-)

    Paul Hodes-D, verses Charlie Bass this is a Dark Horse quickly becoming a real race. Race Kerry won the District (and NH), Governor Linch-D has 70% approval in the district. This Distric last had a Democrat in 1992 (Dick Sweat). This is Hodes second challenge of Bass, and he gained name recognition. Bass will have a hard time motivating the GOP base because he is a moderate (No drilling in ANWR, pro-choice). The Libertarian Party also took 3.5% in the distric last cycle cutting into the GOP base.

    From Paul Hodes website
    Congressional candidate Paul Hodes showed he will be a formidable challenger by raising more money in the first three months of 2006 than incumbent Congressman Charlie Bass.

    Hodes, a Concord Democrat, raised $146,013 in the first quarter, while Bass raised only $102,160, almost 50% less than Hodes’ total.  
    http://www.hodesforcongress.com

    -1.63/ -1.49 "Speaking truth to power"

    by dopper0189 on Tue Apr 25, 2006 at 09:43:07 AM PDT

  •  Yay for David Malcolm Roth! (0+ / 0-)

    I hate hate hate Mary Bono. The first thing she ever did in Congress was to get herself on the Clinton Impeachment panel (how did that happen? the most junior member?) and say "Gee, this is the hardest thing I've ever done, but I vote Yes on impeachment". Gah! What a Bon(o)head.

    -7.38, -6.46
    The Truth is the engine of our judicial system. --Patrick Fitzgerald

    by pucklady on Tue Apr 25, 2006 at 09:52:36 AM PDT

  •  You Didn't Mention NY (0+ / 0-)

    Even the folks at Freeperville are a tad panicky and begging the party to go after Clinton with a vengance.  The worry....a big margin victory by Hillary and Elliot Spitzer for Governor is very likely in NY and could well create a sizable coattail effect that could roll up perhaps a half dozen House seats for NY alone.
    _____________

    National Republicans may pay a huge price for not doing more to oppose Hillary Clinton's Senate reelection bid this year.

    In fact, it may cost them control of the House.

    Bloomberg News reports that the former first lady, along with Democratic gubernatorial candidate Eliot Spitzer, now lead their opponents by such wide margins that their coattails could help Democrats "pick up as many as six New York congressional seats - more than one-third of the 15 they need nationally to gain a House majority."

    Lee Miringoff, director of the Institute for Public Opinion at Marist College in Poughkeepsie, agrees that Clinton and Spitzer victories could have national consequences.

    "It could turn into a Democratic year in New York, which might then have an impact on down-ballot races for Congress," he explained.

    Even absent the New York factor, Republicans are already deeply worried that the House could go Democrat - a prospect that White House spokeswoman Mary Matalin described on Thursday as "catastrophic."
    _______

    The full post is here:

    http://www.freerepublic.com/...

    Free markets would be a great idea, if markets were actually free.

    by dweb8231 on Tue Apr 25, 2006 at 09:56:10 AM PDT

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