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Good news for Dems in the 8th district....

According to Public Policy Polling survey released April 28, 40% of likely voters support Democratic challenger Larry Kissell while only 32% support incumbant Republican Robin Hayes.  When undecided voters are factored, Kissell maintains a lead of 43% to 35% over Hayes.

When asked if they want to re-elect their Congressman, a mere 28% of those surveyed said yes while 48% said they would vote for someone new.  According to Dean Debnam of Public Policy Polling, 'vote-to-re elect' numbers less than 50% are a sign of vulnerability.

Hayes unpopularity in his district most likely stems from his deciding vote on CAFTA (after vowing to his constituents that he would 'never' vote in favor of it).  In fact, 57% of survey respondents said they were less likely to vote for Hayes because of his flip-flop on the CAFTA issue.

To read the complete poll results go to:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

While NC-8 hasn't received a lot of national attention, it is becoming increasingly likely that we will flip the seat come November...and that's great news for NC-8, the Democratic party and our country.  

For more info on Larry Kissell, check out his website:
http://www.larrykissell.com/

Originally posted to working for change on Mon May 01, 2006 at 07:33 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  This made the Raleigh News and Observer today (5+ / 0-)

    From Under the Dome:
    http://www.newsobserver.com/...

    State Democratic Chairman Jerry Meek told the party faithful that he hoped Democrats would pick up two U.S. House seats in the fall.

    Although Meek did not name any names, Democrats are gunning for Republican incumbents Robin Hayes of Concord and Charles Taylor of Brevard.

    A recent survey underscores the Democratic optimism, at least in the Hayes contest. A poll taken by Public Policy Polling of Raleigh found possible Democratic challenger Larry Kissell was favored by 40 percent of those polled. Hayes was the choice of 32 percent.

    The automated survey of 969 likely voters in the 8th U.S. House District was taken April 27 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

    The poll suggests there might be a backlash against Hayes because he cast the deciding vote in the House last year for the Central American Free Trade Agreement.

  •  Hayes was set to be upset with or without (4+ / 0-)

    I mean seriously, the man was the deciding vote on CAFTA and the owner of the mill that caused the largest mass-layoff in NC history.  I'm surprised the people in Kannapolis haven't burned him in effigy yet.

  •  28 RE? (4+ / 0-)

    Wow that is low.  And I though Mike Sodrel's (IN-9) was anemic at 33%.  So these two have to be gone.

    Even in races we appear competitive, overall support for a particular Congressman by his/her constituency is not bad.  Sabato has poited this out.  People dislike Congress... but not their Congressman for the most part.  Maybe they're waiting for the other states/districts to put new people in.

    Thats what makes finding a number for our pick-ups in Nov still uncertain.  We'll have to see what August looks like.  But those with poor re-elect numbers now, I think we can be confident with.

    •  I agree (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      RANT, fgentile, teeb

      ...it would take a miracle for Hayes to pull those re-elect numbers out of the toilet.

      I really think Kissell can do it...he has a good campaign that continues to gain momentum, he's raising money, he has a growing presence and he has a Democrat majority of registered voters.

      This would be a great pick-up for us!

      We are the people we are looking for.

      by working for change on Mon May 01, 2006 at 07:53:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I wrote a piece not long ago, but didn't put it (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        teeb, working for change

        on Kos.  I think Hayes would have to spend over $2 million to beat Larry and I think most of his big donors are in.  He will get some leadership pac money come June, but not close to what he needs.

        Larry can now run like the front runner, but I don't think he'll change a thing.  He'll just keep working hard.  I'm very excited about his chances.  I'm going to work a poll for him tomorrow.  

  •  I've been a fan of Kissell (4+ / 0-)

    since Anglico pimped him in my $5 Friday diary a while back.  I sent him $5, which was the point of the diary, and got back a very nice hand-signed card.  The fact that the campaign would bother replying to a donor of a mere $5 (and from New York, no less!) really impressed me.  He's one of the candidates I'll be keeping an eye on throughout the year.  Good to hear he's doing well!

    "I worry a great deal about the future of democracy in America"
    - President of St. Lawrence University Daniel Sullivan at Commencement 2004

    by Team Slacker on Mon May 01, 2006 at 07:47:44 AM PDT

  •  The 'groundswell' type environment (4+ / 0-)

    is getting impressive.  Sadly, my district seems incredibly unlikely to be one of them. But, I was talking to a candidate recently who said, I think with real surprise, "I might actually win this November." He said the polling, at this early a point in time, was easily 10 points better for him than expected and that the polling has him ahead of the many-term Republican who has been winning with over 10 point margins every election.  

    Now, I will not get complacent.  We will fight to victory ... but I am getting hopeful that there might be that victory ... that veto-proof victory might be beyond reach, but would be a wonderful dream ...

    9/11/05, Day 1469, A count worth keeping? Or, Osama Bin Forgotten?

    by besieged by bush on Mon May 01, 2006 at 07:52:22 AM PDT

  •  This is surprising (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    teeb

    as Kissell's name recognition can't be very good and his fundraising certainly isn't. Are we sure this isn't a bogus poll for the Kissell campaign?

    •  See the comment above... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      RANT, teeb

      about the article in today's Raleigh News & Observer.

      Also, check out the pollster's website here.

      I'm not sure why you think Kissell's name recognition can't be very good...maybe you don't live in the district.

      We are the people we are looking for.

      by working for change on Mon May 01, 2006 at 08:05:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't live in NC-08, admittedly (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        The Southern Dem, teeb

        but isn't Kissell an activist or something? Not a high-profile state legislator, mayor, or county commissioner.

        But maybe his name rec is good, how should I know?

        But as I said below, I have to be skeptical about this poll especially since it is essentially a push poll: "Hayes switched his vote on CAFTA; now who will you vote for?"

        •  No. (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          RANT, The Southern Dem, teeb

          Larry Kissell is a school teacher and former mill worker, not an activist.  Unless you consider deciding to serve your community and your country through public office activism.

          Why bother making a statement about name recognition if you admittedly have no idea?  

          As for your skepticism about the poll, only 28% of those surveyed said they would vote to re-elect Hayes...in the question BEFORE the CAFTA issue was raised.  

          The CAFTA question might be a push, but that doesn't explain the results to the re-elect question asked first.

          We are the people we are looking for.

          by working for change on Mon May 01, 2006 at 08:26:15 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  This is a push poll (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    brittain33, RANT

    I read the whole PDF; this looks like a push poll for the Kissell campaign. They specifically said "Hayes flip-flopped on CAFTA; now, will you vote for him?" That's not a fair, representative poll. They should have just asked for a trial heat instead of asking leading questions.

  •  Does anyone know how the walk in Charlotte went? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    teeb

    I know a group was going to walk for Larry in Charlotte on Saturday.  I was out of town, so couldn't go.  I know there will be more opportunities to help, but I really was disappointed to miss it.

    •  The canvassing went well (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      RANT

      It was a beautiful day and we had 10 people out canvassing in Plaza Midwood all afternoon. Folks were happy to see us and were very positive about Larry.

      One of the volunteers came up with a great slogan which we used all day "Send a teacher to Congress"

      We are the people we are looking for.

      by working for change on Mon May 01, 2006 at 10:23:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Well (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    yomoma2424

    I think that the Democrats in the primary should vote for for Dunn anyway. His name will still be on the ballot. They shouldn't let him run his punk ass out the door. Instead, they should force him to run against his will. That would be a good day for Democrats Nationally. Especially if an unknown liberal school teacher does so well. Imagine what the better known more conservative Dunn would be doing in the polls. Good diary.

    •  Liberal School Teacher? You've got to be kidding (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      RANT

      Kissell is SO moderate.  I get your point, but Dunn ran out the door, because Kissell was chasing him with a big organization, garnering key endorsements, and in district fundraising sucess.

      I'm really tired of Democrats that tear down other Dems, we've got enough work to do against the Republicans.  How can we expect the voters to get excited about our candidates when we marginalize them among ourselves?  

    •  Why should we do that? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      RANT

      Tim Dunn dropped out of the race because his campaign was faltering.  He was having difficulty raising funds and he was turning off Democrats looking for better representation for their district.   Dunn is pro-war and pro-life....we can get that from Hayes.

      We are the people we are looking for.

      by working for change on Mon May 01, 2006 at 10:27:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well, this is a conservative district (0+ / 0-)

        ansd Dunn would have kicked Hayes ass becuase of his moderacy. What's really pathetic is that Democrats could no find a first tier recruit. That the DCCC couldn't recruit a state senator with more political experience and access to money than either Kissel or Dunn. Alas, tis' just one of many spectacular failures from Emmanuel to recruit strong, political esperienced and entrenched candidates against vulnerable Republicans. Hayworth's new challenger, Ron Klein, Patricia Madrid, are some of the only first tier candidates that Emmanuel Actually REcruited. He's been good at raising the money, and criticizing Republicans, but not so good at the Candidate Recruitment. I would prfer to have someelse as chair of the DCCC in 2008.

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