So, I'm running through Cherokee Park in Louisville tonight. It's a run we locals call "the loop." The loop is a particularly brutal three miles, for me anyway, because it has a couple of pretty nice hills and I hate running uphill. It takes the wind out of my sales. Luckily, there's always downhill to look forward to, otherwise I might not make it.
As I'm getting to the bottom of the first big hill and I can hear the music from the Barnstable-Brown party. Legend has it, that according to US magazine, this particular Derby Eve party is one of the top ten parties in the country. Even though I've never been and probably never will go, that fills me with an odd sense of pride.
More below with poll!
At the party, they were playing "Tempted by the fruit of another" by Squeeze. I remember because, at the time I wished they were playing "Pulling mussels from the shell."
I could hear the crowd that gathers round cheering as limousines pulled up. Most likely, there wasn't even anyone famous scrambling out of any given limo. Probably just some schmoe who likes the idea of people applauding his otherwise dull existence for no good reason. Or, perhaps I just haven't come to grips with the long car mania sweeping my community. Either way, I had another hill to climb before I finished my run.
So, I concentrated on my Derby picks. Here are a few thoughts.
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Tomorrow, at 6:12 pm EST, the gates will spring open and the 132nd Kentucky Derby will be under way.
According to experts, this is a confounding Derby to handicap. There's a lot of speed and a lot of variables. In fact, the cool thing about the Derby is that it's a race between 3-year olds. They're all young horses ready to enter their prime. Some are early bloomers and others improve day-by-day (don't get the tune stuck in your head like I just did).
The fact is, they're all good horses. Mostly, if not all, have been bred for this day. Owners try to bring stamina into their stock of speed and vice versa. The Kentucky Derby requires tactical speed along with endurance. Throw in the right amount of luck and you just might win.
This years race favorite, up until today, was Brother Derek. He's dropped from favorite to about 9-1 odds at this point, because he has a pretty crappy starting position (bad luck of the draw). Nonetheless, he's a solid choice.
By the way, you can get the latest Derby news and list of entries here.
Lawyer Ron is another current 9-1 choice. By tomorrow, he may be back to 3 or 4 to 1. A very popular horse, Lawyer Ron, like Brother Derek, has 6 or 7 wins under his belt.
Barbaro is undefeated at 5-0. Some people say you shouldn't bet a Derby horse if he's raced under six times. However, Barbaro has had one of the fastest workouts at Churchill Downs. He earned a "bullet" for the day and apparently that's pretty important. (If I didn't mention before this, I'm kind of a novice at handicapping. In fact, I call what I do handiguessing).
Jazil has some buzz. Came on really fast in the Wood Memorial (or as Baldwiny sez, "Wod Memorial") to take second place. I watched a video replay of the race and was astounded. He came from way back, so he obviously has a second or third gear.
Sharp Humor, by the way, gave Barbaro a great battle. They were like Eskimos, nose-to-nose.
I like Point Determined. He has good breeding, but I heard a rumor today that he was a "lazy" horse. Personally, I thought all horses were lazy, which is why you have to kick them in the ribs to get them to move.
A.P. Warrior has some good buzz. Haven't studied him a whole lot, but he has great lines and was in some great races. Seems like he went backwards on his last race.
Sweetnorthernsaint is a gelding, but he has the saint thing working for him. Actually, this is one of the favorites for some of the people "in the know." Or, as we like to call them, the backside people.
Bob and John and Sinister Minister are up there. Personally, I'd like to see Sinister Minister battle it out with Sweetnorthernsaint.
Steppenwolfer is another horse that has a lot of people talking. Could be one of those that is coming into his prime at the right time. Also, like Jazil, he's a come from behind type horse.
Showing Up is impressive, but rather inexperienced with only three races under his belt.
And that's really all I've got. If I haven't mentioned them, they're probably not worth betting. Of course, that means they'll probably win.
So here's the poll