This is in response to thereisnospoon's well-written diary,
2006 will be a major disappointment. So will 2008.
Color me optimistic. Call me naive. Tell me I don't know what I'm talking about. But please, read the diary.
Republicans are in trouble. Newt Gingrich can sense it. Ken Mehlman can sense it (audio). We can all sense it. My argument is based on three assumptions: 1) Congressional Republicans are weaker now than they have been since taking control of congress in 1994, 2) Congressional Democrats are stronger now than they have been since losing control of Congress in 1994, and 3) The Nixon-esque poll numbers crippling the smirking chimp will act as an anchor holding the GOP down. Join me on the flip for a closer look at these three assumptions.
1) Congressional Republicans are weaker now than they have been since taking control of congress in 1994.
As you all know, the current congress has been plagued by scandals and corruption. The politicians chosen to lead the republican party in congress for the current term, Tom Delay and Bill Frist, are as involved as anyone else. A recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll shows that 65% and 57% of the American public believe that these two republican leaders were involved in "illegal activity." I'll pause the argument here to dispute a claim made by thereisnospoon:
We're going to lose because PERSONAL TAINT IS EPHEMERAL in politics. Basic corruption and incompetence are bad, but not insurmountable. And personal dislike of a single, or even multiple politicians, may spell doom for them personally--but not for the ideology that put them there in the first place.
This analysis does not take into account the fact that a history of corruption can create associations in voters minds over times. To illustrate this point the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press has conducted surveys on voters associations for each party. The Center
notes that, "The GOP is associated with being
"greedy," "rich," "business," "crooks," "corrupt," "money," and
"for rich people." My point is this, if voters have those sorts of words come to mind when they think of republicans, they are
far less likely to vote for them in November. Sorry for the interruption, we now return to your regularly scheduled programming. The same
Pew Report indicates that 41% of voters feel that congress has achieved less than previous sessions, compared to just 7% who feel that they have achieved more. This only strengthens the anti-incumbent fever that is sweeping the nation.
On the issue of voter perceptions of corruption in the GOP controlled congress a recent Gallup Poll illustrates my point:
"Forty-seven percent of Americans think most members of Congress are corrupt, a significant increase from the beginning of this year. The American public is much more likely to trust the Democrats in Congress rather than the Republicans to handle the issue of corruption, continuing a recent trend."
As congressional corruption shapes up to be a major issue in the mid-term elections, the fact that Americans are "much more likely" to trust democrats to handle the issue bodes well for the democratic victories.
Even the notoriously conservative Fox News is painting a rosey picture of democratic odds in 2006.
Democrats continue to have the edge over Republicans in the upcoming midterm elections. The poll shows that by a 46 percent to 29 percent margin, voters think it would be better for the country if the Democrats win control of Congress in this year's elections.
As would be expected, almost all Democrats (82 percent) think it would be better for the country if their party wins and most Republicans (72 percent) think it would be better if their party retains control. What about swing voters? Among independents, 42 percent say Democrats and 10 percent Republicans.
2) Congressional Democrats are stronger now than they have been since losing control of Congress in 1994
The argument that democrats do not have a plan is not going to hold up this time around. For the first time in years (decades?) the democratic party has a bold, decisive, unified plan for the country. I like to consider it the democratic contract with America.
Honest Leadership and Open Government
We will end the Republican culture of corruption & restore a sense of responsibility to elected office, and we will pass fundamental reforms that make government mope hones, open and accountable to the American people than ever before.
Real Security
We will protect Americans at home by getting serious about homeland security, and address the real threats abroad.
Jobs in American that will stay in America
We will keep good jobs from leaving and ensure that every job in America is a fair deal.
A Strong Public Education System
We will strengthen our nation's public schools to restore opportunity and optimism for every American.
A Health Care System that Works for Everyone
We will join ever other industrialized country by make sure everyone has access to affordable health care.
Retirement Security
We will ensure that a retirement with dignity is the right and expectation of every since American.
To those that would argue that the democratic party does not have bold, progressive, effective leadership I would suggest you do some research on the following individuals:
Barack Obama
Harry Reid
Russ Feingold
Nancy Pelosi
Howard Dean
Charles Schumer
Bill Richardson
John Kerry
Al Gore
3) The Nixon-esque poll numbers crippling the smirking chimp will act as an anchor holding the GOP down.
As pollingreport.com points out, none of the major polling groups have given Bush an approval rating of over 40% in nearly 3 months. In fact, among many of them he is in danger of dipping below 30% approval rating. Given his extremely high disapproval levels, many groups give the president a net approval rating of less than negative 30%. Want a graphical representation? Take a look at this trend: (click for full size)
The widespread opposition to president Bush won't be worth much in the mid-term elections unless voters use the election as a referendum on his failed poliices. At this point, the indication is that many will do just that. A recent Washington Post poll indicates that:
Nearly three times as many Americans say they will use the elections to express opposition to the president (30 percent) than to show support for him (12 percent).
In order for Democrats to regain control of Congress in 2006 they must do 3 things:
1) Continue to associate congressional republicans with the rampant corruption within the party and with President Bush.
2) Convince voters that they are the party of honest, clean, open government.
and
3) Hammer the six-point plan into voters minds to discredit any notion that we are a party without meaningful ideas.
It is my belief that the democrats will succeed in this and will regain control of Congress in November.