A new
The Quinnipiac National Thermometer Poll released today claim that Guiliani and McCain are the hotest Presidential Candidates among the entire electorate. However, the actual data appears to rank the candidates differently? My reading of the date suggests that Obama has a higher national temperature rating than McCain but this doesn't get reported?. What's going on here?
When it comes to potential presidential candidates, Democratic and independent voters favor Republicans Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani more than Republicans and independents like Democratic Sen. Hillary Clinton, according to a Quinnipiac University national 'Thermometer' survey released today.
The independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll asked voters to rate 19 national leaders from 0 to 100 on a "feeling thermometer," with the highest numbers reflecting the warmest feelings. Results in mean scores, not percentages, show:
Giuliani with the highest overall score - 63.5, with Republicans giving him a 73.5; Democrats 57.5 and independents 61.1.
McCain with an overall score of 56: 59.3 from Republicans, 53.5 from Democrats and 56.4 from independents.
Clinton with a total score of 49.9, with Democrats giving her a 72 rating, Republicans 25.2 and independents 48.9.
Clinton More Polarizing than Either McCain Or Giuliani
"Sen. Clinton is a more polarizing figure than either Sen. McCain or Mayor Giuliani," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "She has almost universal name recognition. Because it is harder to change a voter's opinion once it is formed, her work is cut out for her once she gets past her core supporters."
Other Findings
McCain's support shows a slight change since the March Quinnipiac University survey, with his mean dropping 3.7 points overall, and 5.2 points among Democrats. The ratings for Sen. Clinton and Giuliani changed little.
Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, whose mean score of 58.4 (71.3 among Democrats and 42 among Republicans), put him second overall, remains largely unknown. Fifty-five percent of registered votes don't know enough to rate him, but that figure has fallen 4 points since March as his rating has dropped also.
Many potential 2008 candidates are largely unknown to voters, including Republican Senators George Allen of Virginia and Bill Frist of Tennessee, Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts and Democratic Senators Evan Bayh of Indiana, Joe Biden of Delaware, Russell Feingold of Wisconsin, Christopher Dodd of Connecticut and former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner.
I quess it was Obama very high unknown numbers that prevented the authors from leading with the headline Obama beats McCain in National Voter Temperature Poll. This seems like a more interesting finding than the authors represent here.
The leaders, their mean scores and percent of voters who said they did not know enough about them to offer an opinion:
Giuliani - 63.5 - (13 percent)
Obama - 58.4 - (55 percent)
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice - 56.1 (9 percent)
McCain - 56 (17 percent)
Clinton - 49.9 (2 percent)
2004 Democratic vice presidential candidate John Edwards - 49.4 (21 percent)
Biden - 48.8 (55 percent)
Bayh - 47.9 (74 percent)
Romney - 47.5 (67 percent)
Warner - 47.1 (72 percent)
Allen - 46.8 (72 percent)
Former Vice President Al Gore - 45.7 (3 percent)
Dodd - 45.3 (64 percent)
2004 Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry -45.2 (6 percent)
Feingold - 45.1 (62 percent)
President George W. Bush - 42.9 (0 percent)
Frist - 41.8 (51 percent)
Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld - 41.5 (12 percent)
Vice President Dick Cheney - 40.5 (5 percent)
From May 23- 30, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,534 registered voters nationwide. The survey has a margin of error of + or - 2.5 percentage points.
Raw Data Shows Movement From March
Here is the full questionairre as well as the comparision from the same poll in March. Another interesting finding is that voters seem to be cooling on both McCain and Mark Warner. -3.6% and -3.7% which is just above the + or - 2.5 percentage points off the margin of error. But is also consistent with the bad press both candidates received in this period. McCain's pandering to Jerry Falwell in his Liberty College speech.
And I am surprised Mark Warner's have not fallen much further after reports of his embarrasing response to New Hamspire foriegn policy and national security questions, the New York Times article disputing his so called "progressive label, as well as the growing awareness of his GLBT rating below even McCain, Cheney, Patacki, and Giuliani and Bloomberg for his opposition to both civil unions and marriage equality. (Although, a Warner campaign spokesman apparently made a modification day before yesterday mentioning he may support some kind of domestic partnership arrangements -- he is still well to the right of all the other mainstream Democratic and at least 4 prominent Republicans.)
TREND: I'd like to get your feelings toward some of our political leaders and other people who have been in the news. I'll read the name of a person and I'd like you to rate that person using something called the feeling thermometer.
You can choose any number between 0 and 100. The higher the number, the warmer or more favorable you feel toward that person, the lower the number, the colder or less favorable.
If we come to a person who you haven't heard enough about to form an opinion, you don't need to rate the person. Just tell me and we'll move on to the next one ...
Jun 5 Mar 6
2006 2006
Mean Mean
Score Score
Allen, George 46.8 48.6
Bayh, Evan 47.9 na
Biden, Joe 48.8 47.5
Bush, George W. 42.9 44.1
Cheney, Dick 40.5 41.0
Clinton, Bill na 56.1
Clinton, Hillary 49.9 50.4
Dodd, Christopher 45.3 na
Edwards, John 49.4 50.8
Feingold, Russ 45.1 49.0
Frist, Bill 41.8 44.1
Giuliani, Rudy 63.5 63.5
Gore, Al 45.7 43.2
Kerry, John 45.2 46.3
McCain, John 56.0 59.7
Obama, Barack 58.4 59.9
Rice, Condoleezza 56.1 57.1
Romney, Mitt 47.5 na
Rumsfeld, Donald 41.5 na
Warner, Mark 47.1 50.7
So many interesting information that has not been analyzed are in this data as well as 5 times as much in the orginal I will join the group discussing it in the comments.
Isn't fun to feel like those starving Doberman pack dogs diving into raw meat for a feeding freenzy? Even us BassetHounds like to pretend sometimes.
:-)